Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Sky Full]

9 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Quick one from me , But I Will be surprised if the Atlantic gets in at all ..?

9 hours ago, MP-R said:

Looks like an Atlantic incursion is inevitable next week (nothing unusual of course at this time of year, and may be as weak as February’s Atlantic spell), but I highly doubt it will last longer than a week.

Well, I’m guessing it’ll be one of these two possibilities..... .       ......and while we wait for the ECM to complete its roll out, here’s how the GFS and GEM see the situation at +198hrs (Thursday 11th March):

  

These charts look Atlantic dominated to me.  Windy, frequently wet, but probably average temperatures.

Edited March 3, 2021 by Sky Full

[knocker]

40 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Well, I’m guessing it’ll be one of these two possibilities..... .       ......and while we wait for the ECM to complete its roll out, here’s how the GFS and GEM see the situation at +198hrs (Thursday 11th March):

  

These charts look Atlantic dominated to me.  Windy, frequently wet, but probably average temperatures.

That would seem a reasonable assessment across the board. No high latitude blocking, the tpv in charge; unsettled with average temps

And a marked resemblance to the lower strat

[Frosty.]

Broadsword calling Danny Boy...any coldies out there??...are you receiving me..over?..,.anyway, the Gfs 0z operational...and not only the gfs indicates some cold and snow potential at times...so, March could spring a few, or even several wintry surprises during the next few weeks!   

[mb018538]

GFS perhaps seeing a recovery in pressure towards mid month?




ECM doesn't seem so sure:



Either way - with a strong PV established again, which has coupled between trop/strat, any chances of serious cold weather returning look minimal at the moment.

[johnholmes]

Wed 3 rd anomaly update

Ec-gfs both show a bit more of ridging in Greenland aream ec more so; fairly strong w’ly.

Interesting  flow into uk; interesting on ecmwf 10 day shows flow is more n of w and cold air more marked, down to 520 dm in n for a time along with -5 850 before warming out a bit again

Noaa and from the far w the trough has edged a touch east and the ridge west of it has ‘gone’. Near the uk and much as 24 hours ago with again a suggestion of the fairly flat trough being divergent w/nw of uk, (=deepening of any surface lows in this area), not really any similarity with ec chart (Greenland ridging for example, nor with ecmwf idea posted above?).

Overall after a coldish nw-n flow this weekend, the atlantic returning is the most likely; so unsettled with spells of rain, colder to rear of cold fronts briefly, before next system, prob quite windy at times, especially for nw=w areas

ECMWF/GFS DAY 8-10 MEAN 500MB HEIGHT COMPARISON

WWW.METEO.PSU.EDU

 

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

http://www2.wetter3.de/Fax/00_ECMWF_ENS_p0_500hPa+144_240.gif

 

Edited March 3, 2021 by johnholmes
spelling

[Timmytour]

There's no chance of there being a winter nirvana while Knocker is back posting on this thread......but it is good to have added confidence in what the weather is actually going to be like over the coming few days now is he back with his thoughts on the models! 

[minus10]

 

Seems with the jet firing up all the mist and mirk will be blown away next week as wind will be the issue as per GFS

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z operational shows there’s still potentially wintry weather to come as these charts clearly indicate (indeed there’s a cold spell later this week with widespread frosts!)...so although it’s now spring meteorologically speaking, it doesn’t preclude further wintry weather..well according to the 6z at least..and the earlier 0z!!!.. ️ ...the run ends with a real taste of spring!  

 

Edited March 3, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Cambrian]

Brilliant forum and community I have greatly enjoyed following for several years, the winter just gone probably the best so far. We often get some snow in the hills in Wales in March, even last year on the 12th, settled too. 

ECM has been more progressive than the GFS for a few days now in bringing down some polar air for about 7 days time, pressure over the UK forecast to be much lower than GFS too. Something like the ECM could well do the trick again this year, briefly. 

ECM +168 00z

GFS +162 06Z

[minus10]

GFS showing the changeable nature of the weather at this time of year with the transition from effectively winter to summer within the space of a week. Much needed change i say as to get rid of this current depressing spell. Worst day here for quite a while, dull, cold, misty, murky and wet. 

[Mike Poole]

Looking a little longer term, here are some possibly relevant charts to give an idea where we might go through March and beyond.  I’m taken by the idea of a UK high reasserting itself after an unsettled spell next week, as per the GFS T270:

AAM looks to be a little below average to average according to CFS, so this doesn’t seem to suggest to me any high latitude blocks:

SSTs at the moment:

Warmish around the UK, might gain traction if a UK high were to take hold for a while, worth noting for later in the season.  

Worth a final look at the strat NAM chart as you can see the whole 2 months now since the SSW - interesting to look at, but it is clear that its influence is now over.  Wonder when the final warming will be? 

So I’m not expecting any more significant cold.  I see the MO contingency planners suggest a warmer and dryer spring than average.  I think if this happens it may feed through to summer, although I recognise that the transition to ENSO neutral is not guaranteed at all - there is more uncertainty about the demise of La Niña which we would welcome for a good summer than I suggested in my previous posts about summer (thanks to those who highlighted this in response to previous posts), so that is something to watch for the longer term...we will see...

 

Edited March 3, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

I don’t think even the most hardcore coldie would be unhappy about some springlike pleasantly warm / sunny anticyclonic weather as we enter the second half of March?...anyway, the Gfs 12z op is remarkably similar to the 6z, certainly shows the duality of early spring like the earlier run...indeed, I thought I was looking at the 6z again!

Edited March 3, 2021 by Jon Snow

[damianslaw]

Models in strong agreement up to the 240 hr mark, not often the case.

What do we gave, a generally colder than average outlook, bit only a little so, with nothing especially cold on the horizon, but frost a feature and snow on higher ground at times. Rest of the week often cloudy, but some breaks in the west will bring frost and some sun. Little rain, but a band approaching from the west on Sunday.

Next week unsettled, wind and rain, cold in the north sub 528 dam air by Thursday, snow possible to relatively low levels.

[stodge]

Evening all

Well, we're on another page so perhaps a flicker of interest or perhaps not?

Chilly in lowland East London today and slightly surprised by a spell of rain this afternoon - the first for two and a half weeks. Three or four colder days ahead before a slow rise in temperatures from Monday.

Beyond that, it looked last evening like a brief unsettled spell but clear signs of a return of heights and settled conditions around of just after mid-month. 

Let's see what tonight's obfuscations provide - T+144 and T+240 charts from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel respectively:

T+144 (March 9th):

T+240 (March 13th):

As the HP from the coming weekend declines away early next week, the Atlantic gathers from the west with LP moving in from the west and north west. Parallel has the strongest initial storm but both GEM and ECM have vigorous secondary LP approaching by T+144. From there, however, quite a divergence in evolution. GEM maintains the strong Atlantic flow while GFS OP puts the trough over Scandinavia and builds heights to the south west. Both ECM and Parallel slow the Atlantic very quickly and have cut off LP features with heights building. The indications therefore any Atlantic incursion could be a 3-5 day affair next week.

Moving on to the T+312 and T+384 charts for a glimpse at what might be occurring around and after the middle of the month. Charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS:

T+312 (March 16th):

T+384 (March 19th):

Clear and growing signal for a return of HP and more settled conditions at mid month and beyond but as usual the big question for those wanting either cold or warmth will be where the HP sets up. OP has the HP just to the east or south east so draws up a warm SSE'ly but Parallel has the HP over Scandinavia and a much colder E'ly draw across southern Britain. Control and CFS keep the HP more to the south west and a tad more Atlantic influence especially or north western areas.

[minus10]

Seems potential for battle of airmasses over mid Europe according to ecm. Admittedly its day 10 but an interesting clash if it were to verify. Pointing at very cold air still hanging around while warm air an increasing presence to the south. Recipe for lively weather somewhere over Europe.

 

 

Edited March 3, 2021 by minus10
Delete duplicated image

[minus10]

After a brief milder and windy spell next Wednesday latest gfs keeps it cold and unsettled through to the following Monday. Even after that there is still cold air around to the east. Warm up toned down somewhat, although of course could all change with 0z. Typical spring weather it seems.

[knocker]

The passage south of the weakening cold front today, although initially bringing cloud and some patchy rain, will eventually result in clearer and cooler air for most, and thus see the end of any North Sea dross.

 

Thus plenty of sunshine for most areas over the weekend after widespread morning frosts. But by now there is plenty of energy crossing the Atlantic struggling to shift the blocking high (note the diverging jet) and frontal systems are slowly edging east bringing cloud to western regiond and rain to the NW by Sunday before slowly tracking SE though Monday

And from here the rest of the week looks unsettled (this according to the gfs) with the Atlantic in charge and temps varying around the average as systems pass through

[knocker]

The ecm much along the same lines next week

[Weathizard]

What a hideous spring chart this is.

[mb018538]

Still some hints of things quietening down after an unsettled week from Tuesday onwards. Especially on the GFS (though the 00z Op is a 'settled' outlier), but the trend is there. ECM to a lesser extent. One to keep an eye on after what will be quite an autumnal week!

[IDO]

The models are continuing with the cyclic nature of the La Nina/sPV background signals so alternating between the UK HP and a La Nina westerly burst of the Atlantic. The gfs op shows this rinse and repeat; HP until d5, then d5-d10 a westerly flow, before another pressure build. 

d8-16:  

The mean has a way to go before it marries with the op run and at that range all subject to variation on timing and the theme.

gefs London: 

Little sign of any cold, cooler days IMBY but overall mild more than cold?

[knocker]

Generally the tpv remains in charge in the ext period but the GEFS does break ranks and ptomotes the Euro high again. And to some extent the ecm does sniff the coffee by the end so await to see how this pans out

[Bradowl]

1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

What a hideous spring chart this is.

Funny old month March, I always class it as late winter rather than early Spring. 

From past experience chances of unsettled even wintry weather is more frequent than warm sunny days, especially up this way. 

[damianslaw]

Just now, Bradowl said:

Funny old month March, I always class it as late winter rather than early Spring. 

From past experience chances of unsettled even wintry weather is more frequent than warm sunny days, especially up this way. 

Yes first half of March at least I class as winter still, the bareness in nature also adds to the winter base state, its during the second half we slide into spring proper and nature stirs fully, clocks go forward and it's full throttle ahead...

[minus10]

 

Yes looking at latest gfs next Tuesday and Thursday are sure going to be different to what we have been used to for a while...