Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Model output discussion 10/02/21


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 3.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    30 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Most of you wont like this..... but there NO quick route to cold on this chart, and more to the point, theres no Northern Blocking which has been present since late November .

    These charts have been edging tentetively towards a westerly regime, this chart now really runs with it, so unsettled, windy, average, but have drifted away from any route that would allow a proper wintry spell.
     

    Disappointing but not really a surprise, given the way things have been shaping up since mid-February!

    Edited by Don
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    9 minutes ago, Don said:

    Disappointing but not really a surprise the way things have been shaping up since mid-February!

    That polar vortex reformed just at the wrong time and the effect of this was quick on the troposphere too. However anyone up for a white Easter this year, GFS Extended Member 24 says yes

    image.thumb.png.bc54d0317f5a4de51885e9102259a29a.pngimage.thumb.png.6c790dfc31ced8d497d90a8edb68c15f.pngimage.thumb.png.8a55bfc6241be36fbcda6ba1851b27f1.png

    I know this is an Easter Saturday chart but this looks like it is going to stick into Easter Sunday too. I make that temperatures between 0c and 3c for most of the UK with 6c in the far SW

    However GFS Extended Member 19 has other ideas

    image.thumb.png.9cdeb95151877e1ca5445ad4fbdc2257.pngimage.thumb.png.5dd294e26a62cfab3d9da9df1fe78d8b.pngimage.thumb.png.465fa97f2b58ccae23c3d2fdc8003cae.png

    This looks to be quite a settled option with pleasant warmth and temperatures around 12c to 15c, a touch cooler in the NW

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Rotherham
    17 hours ago, Don said:

    Trouble is, cold zonality is as rare as rocking horse poop these days!  However, at least the charts remain fairly interesting.

    Re: lack of cold zonality, maybe that will change soon. I read somewhere the AMO is due to go negative soon meaning colder temperatures in the Atlantic....

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    so why is the high slipping south instead of moving to scandi with the low pressure over scandi dropping South which would  setup easterly,which is not going to happen.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    GFS snow risk % for NW Kent has been gradually increasing snow risk around 5th March surely not?!

    Screenshot_20210301-133550_Samsung Internet.jpg

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Location: East London
    3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    Most of you wont like this..... but there NO quick route to cold on this chart, and more to the point, theres no Northern Blocking which has been present since late November .

    These charts have been edging tentetively towards a westerly regime, this chart now really runs with it, so unsettled, windy, average, but have drifted away from any route that would allow a proper wintry spell.

     

    814day.03mm1.gif

    Well that's a fairly grim chart. Not exactly atypical for the time of year, but no more enjoyable for it. 

    The GEFS MSLP graph doesn't provide any more room for optimism for the second week of March. The mean does increase, but with so much scatter, I'd be loathe to take it as a signal.

     

    Screenshot_20210301-133624.png

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    2 hours ago, Kentspur said:

    GFS snow risk % for NW Kent has been gradually increasing snow risk around 5th March surely not?!

    Screenshot_20210301-133550_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Look at the precip amounts though 🤣

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    The GFS's are more amplified around Iceland now as the runs gets into higher resolution.. Maybe the ECM wasn't that far away the other day.. 🤔 

    Edited by D.V.R
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    Certainly a chillier feel here in lowland East London today and I expect quite a chilly week as the HP forming off Greenland sinks south pushing a cold NE'ly air flow in front of it. From there, it looked a quick journey to a very mobile and unsettled Atlantic-driven evolution with the jet quite far south and some quite cold air over Scotland in particular promising some spring snow for the mountains.

    Let's see where tonight leaves us.

    T+144 and T+240 from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and Parallel to start:

    T+144 (March 7th):

    image.thumb.png.1d6d2a179cc812e471e68df6d6135db9.pngimage.thumb.png.daf96e4cfe1cf8f069c1e61729a59ac0.pngimage.thumb.png.a7084bd021f2822c47cf3d73bd78d49e.pngimage.thumb.png.312cb717f30a6ff2641b147ad49b744b.png

    T+240 (March 11th):

    image.thumb.png.4b6f433d19051599faa7ab07be291cbb.pngimage.thumb.png.bd3b91d1417ab842bf1067d413216cf7.pngimage.thumb.png.a18435b444b02b6047e5d4fb50db0673.pngimage.thumb.png.fe498d8a376ac3b67dab1ec257ea810c.png

    To be honest, I'm not seeing much clarity even at T+144. The HP sinks south over the British Isles but it seems a lack of clarity as to what happens then. GEM, to be fair, has been consistent in bringing in a stormier and more unsettled scenario and sticks very much to that tonight. GEM keeps the trough negatively aligned but ECM doesn't so much and both GFS OP and Parallel are even less keen on negative alignment with stronger European heights and WSW'ly winds rather than the NW'ly flow with GEM.

    Moving on and T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS:

    T+312 (March 14th)

    image.thumb.png.162744071bbaae8ae82187c9c6be3624.pngimage.thumb.png.a6a5dd76f7a9823b1d7b24eab9405cc5.pngimage.thumb.png.ddc21059927b62d45bb2cd374ea28069.pngimage.thumb.png.80db50828b6b0564ce621df024cb767b.png

    T+384 (March 17th):

    image.thumb.png.e01be1021e8fcf5b45d464b40eb6bdd8.pngimage.thumb.png.0bc256c9df091b503a360c39057f858d.pngimage.thumb.png.29b6d15772b97c5ad09b1e1a5a6745d5.pngimage.thumb.png.7c0ff1193ce5040877da23b1a5d7fd04.png

    Not much help there and I'm not surprised given the lack of clarity so close to T+0. 

    Tonight, I'm as confused as I've been for a while - the current week looks clear enough but what happens once the HP comes over the British Isles is far from resolved - will it decline SE, SW or in situ? I do think GEM has been consistent for several days over the direction of travel and that's where I'd put my money (and very nice money it is too). 

     

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Looking at the overnight models (in this case the Gfs 0z operational) next week sees a big change to very unsettled with some cool / cold zonality thrown in which means potentially wintry precipitation at times, more especially further north and with elevation...so, although next week may start relatively quiet, thereafter it becomes very disturbed.

    21493999-E226-4D59-B3CF-85C18001897E.thumb.png.1f39dcddb43af6f8e01e724b94d407fd.png6194C0C3-F1C9-4DB2-BFFA-7136B2E9F4ED.thumb.png.c2842f7a44486ca87f74ed13ded6bfbf.pngDF7C015C-C387-482C-A3A1-111106D0987B.thumb.png.3e0391077401727ad8c6206105f28830.png

     

     

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    BBC breakfast mentioning chance of snow Sunday, but not clear where?

    There charts are showing some snow central areas. Will temps be conducive? Mmm one to watch.

    In the meantime, dry for most, some showers around tomorrow, perhaps some drizzle eastern coastal locations.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Tue 2 nd March 500mb anomaly update

    Ec-gfs and neither has much signal for a contour ridge in the azores region, slight signal ne of uk but overall a general w’ly pattern is shown over most of the charts; ec has a rather slacker flow over the uk compared to gfs

    Noaa 6-10 is broadly similar to its chart of 24 hours ago; the main trough, nothing very marked, is now shown se of Greenland, it was sw 24 hours ago but it also shows a mainly w’ly flow across most of the chart. Relatively small +ve in the azores area again and a much larger +ve height anomaly  again, south of the aleutian isles.its 8-14 is similar but with little signal of +ve heights in the azores area. Marked troughing is evident down the western n American coast.

    Weather wise for the uk, once the current set up through this week and over the weekend moves on to the 6-10 day period then the atlantic would seem to be the main player out into the 8-14 period.

     

     

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    21 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Tue 2 nd March 500mb anomaly update

    Ec-gfs and neither has much signal for a contour ridge in the azores region, slight signal ne of uk but overall a general w’ly pattern is shown over most of the charts; ec has a rather slacker flow over the uk compared to gfs

    Noaa 6-10 is broadly similar to its chart of 24 hours ago; the main trough, nothing very marked, is now shown se of Greenland, it was sw 24 hours ago but it also shows a mainly w’ly flow across most of the chart. Relatively small +ve in the azores area again and a much larger +ve height anomaly  again, south of the aleutian isles.its 8-14 is similar but with little signal of +ve heights in the azores area. Marked troughing is evident down the western n American coast.

    Weather wise for the uk, once the current set up through this week and over the weekend moves on to the 6-10 day period then the atlantic would seem to be the main player out into the 8-14 period.

     

     

    indeed, thatll suit me, i prefer wet n windy from the west than these dreadful cold grey skies we have over many eastern areas right now.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    Bring on the beast GEM 12z Member 7

    image.thumb.png.0b1831c0e71d7bb037a8e4672fc5a0dd.pngimage.thumb.png.5e6902a9ebf35288ec555651b9bf715b.png

    This is only just over a week away too. Could it be the trend setter?

    Edited by SqueakheartLW
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    27 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    indeed, thatll suit me, i prefer wet n windy from the west than these dreadful cold grey skies we have over many eastern areas right now.

    I wish people would stop saying 'eastern' areas for north sea mist, this location is one of the worst for it, never lifted yesterday at all, doesn't look likely today

    easterly winds ruin Spring and summer days here due to north sea fret, often dosen't start to burn off until 2pm if I'm lucky

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    I wish people would stop saying 'eastern' areas for north sea mist, this location is one of the worst for it, never lifted yesterday at all, doesn't look likely today

    easterly winds ruin Spring and summer days here due to north sea fret, often dosen't start to burn off until 2pm if I'm lucky

    Too right mate! 3c in Brum here yesterday. Miserable and grey again today. Agree about Summer easterlies too as we're last to see the cloud break stuck in the middle!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

    Afternoon 🙂


    A gradual change to unsettled weather possibly sunday but more during monday with a little rain likely for parts of the north, looking mostly dry for central and southern areas of England and Wales..

    730974685_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_156(1).thumb.jpg.1bb0dedb0f737f008efce5d401c5d5f9.jpg

    A long way out obviously 7-8 days but quite likely to be wet and very windy for the middle part of next week as a low pressure system likely moves east.

    The Gfs update a fair bit different in detail with this low compared to it's last update as you'd expect this far out but the outlook is similar.

    EUROPE_PRMSL_186.thumb.jpg.211025c3492f983ac1880e756468ba63.jpg

    Jetstream for next wednesday..

    gens-0-3-192.thumb.png.5e58e1eab403b9981c674e3a74e20b62.png

    overall the temperatures continue to look more on the average to slightly colder than average side but relatively mild on the southern side of the low.. behind this system a large area of west or northwesterly winds across the atlantic looking increasingly likely later in the week next week with showers some possibly wintry in the north mostly on high ground.

    157227062_EUROPE_PRMSL_222(1).thumb.jpg.6549aeef3a702b327afff95eefd6fd20.jpg

    334736449_EUROPE_PRMSL_RAIN_228(1).thumb.jpg.dbdcdbca51c810a72114a8044eec734d.jpg

    647031772_EUROPE_PRMSL_240(7).thumb.jpg.b79b7267306651195f02fd5ae85ce65d.jpg

    On this west or northwesterly flow another low pressure system possibly developing and moving east or southeast towards the end of the week bringing more rain and strong winds and the chance of hill snow in the north.

    perhaps the jetstream moving back further north by next weekend and it may remain unsettled.

    jetstream..

    Saturday

    13th..

    gfs-5-264.thumb.png.57c39e14c715374b0a3a5e2e88533a78.png

    gfs-5-276.thumb.png.2efcee116b7748f986369ced00f27efb.png

    Sunday

    14th..

    gfs-5-288.thumb.png.5175d2d59037ddd7087713a983789286.png

    14th..

    96087469_EUROPE_PRMSL_HGT500_300(2).thumb.jpg.c0d93c611c533b44a897ced6c4a4ef5b.jpg

    Edited by jordan smith
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

    Might have to wait until Easter for snow🥚🐥

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

    Might have to wait until Easter for snow🥚🐥

    Long way off but might be some wintry potential middle next week as we dras in a cold NW flow, nothing untoward, probably high ground only in the north and shortlived, but I wouldn't discount chance if snow this month.

    Outlook is generally a chilly one.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    Still on the same page as last night - well, it's a long time since that has happened.

    A chilly old day in lowland East London and a cooler if not colder period for the rest of the week and up to next Monday. London should have 12c as the maximum in early march but 6-7c looks more likely as a chilly NE'ly precedes the lobe of heights coming off Greenland.

    Not much clarity beyond T+144 last night as there were plenty of options for the HP to decline south east, south west or in situ. Let's see uf this is resolved as it will dictate the onward evolution as he head toward and past mid month. 

    The usual mid range charts from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel to begin with:

    T+144 (March 8th):

    image.thumb.png.b9771146df4ee5fe0ca5958a3453a6a8.pngimage.thumb.png.2434a6af11309918aa57ee5074ff0cf0.pngimage.thumb.png.987449e515f450a6dc43a2519d50cd47.pngimage.thumb.png.945432ddca4884495f8cacaff04d5a1e.png

    T+240 (March 12th):

    image.thumb.png.5748d6009006b4bc27c1814f1a370f33.pngimage.thumb.png.a3f3ba3bb2aeb81d830955e3f1112bf2.pngimage.thumb.png.0e374fd933783f7d13e7c65fb9ff36d2.pngimage.thumb.png.4caf1535ca1587a5e2f6a4a8c4a1734d.png

    Still some resolution required at T+144. GEM and ECM are quick to decline the heights to the south east and for the Atlantic trough to extend across the British Isles but both GFS OP and Parallel attempt a weak Scandinavian HP which keeps settled conditions a day or so longer but it makes little difficult as the Atlantic LP deepens strongly and moves from west to east to the north of the British Isles. That ushers in a more mobile period of weather with alternating LP and HP systems in what looks an active jet by T+240. GFS OP has a strong PM air flow while ECM is building in heights and both GEM and Parallel are between systems. Plenty of strong or very strong winds and rain for all areas.

    Moving further ahead, is this stormy spring period set to continue?

    Charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS:

    T+312 (March 15th):

    image.thumb.png.9854f5d2dc8152b49cecd74441492c66.pngimage.thumb.png.916ba6c8f3d9da12d844b87f7758ee40.pngimage.thumb.png.04842306435579b76138596bbe485dca.pngimage.thumb.png.b3562dd92e3ad08e7a8a6dc439aa7cf3.png

    T+384 (March 18th):

     image.thumb.png.fef55d95a6b7d832dd2f2ecf240fb8b1.pngimage.thumb.png.34e4e68c94999f572d885794e5d1565e.pngimage.thumb.png.c1d33a6c319a607f956a77e9313604ae.pngimage.thumb.png.183181ad9e0edfc25995aa534134ace0.png

    A definite signal the unsettled spell will be brief with a return of HP around or just after mid month. The PV should be starting to weaken by mid March (signs of that in far FI) and if that slows the zonal jet the opportunity for amplification will exist again and that may be what we are seeing though it's early days. Some brief colder spells as LP systems move east but little for cold fans to get excited about in the evening's output.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Quick one from me , But I Will be surprised if the Atlantic gets in at all ..?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Looks like an Atlantic incursion is inevitable next week (nothing unusual of course at this time of year, and may be as weak as February’s Atlantic spell), but I highly doubt it will last longer than a week. Hopefully beyond midmonth we will see high pressure exert some influence from the south and bring the first properly springlike spell of weather.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...