Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Man With Beard]

Gfs 12Z, for those who haven't seen, sinks the high quite quickly through D7-D9 and actually sees an Atlantic assault from D10. 

This was the majority cluster on the ECM this morning, so well supported really.

[Daniel*]

ECM continues to be most amplified and more interesting, you would hope in semi reliable it has a better grip on things.  

[Griff]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here is why even a mega easterly just won’t cut it now...roll on spring

Still some pretty model output nevertheless 

[Griff]

Very pretty, I'm easily pleased 

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Still some pretty model output nevertheless 

Yes but it is a transient ridge, on all models, and what follows is not wintry, but then, by that time it is spring and with the virus and everything I want a warm up now.  It was interesting yesterday to flirt with some cold options but they’ve gone now, apart from a sharp frost next Thursday, so roll on summer...

[Daniel*]

Cold.

 

Much different to UKMO/GFS which sinks ridge quickly.

[Griff]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Yes but it is a transient ridge, on all models, and what follows is not wintry, but then, by that time it is spring and with the virus and everything I want a warm up now.  It was interesting yesterday to flirt with some cold options but they’ve gone now, apart from a sharp frost next Thursday, so roll on summer...

You know the rules, it never works as desired! 

No early visits to the garden centre! 

[Dancerwithwings]

10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

ECM continues to be most amplified and more interesting, you would hope in semi reliable it has a better grip on things.  

Agreed, the HP anomaly is looking good

[Griff]

A bit less transient 

[Battleground Snow]

Difference between ukmo and ECM at 144 is quite notable.

Very cold at 168 on ecm, not too much precipitation though, would expect the ECM to be over amplifying, as it's against all the other models

Edited February 27, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Difference between ukmo and ECM at 144 is quite notable.

Very cold at 168 on ecm, not too much precipitation though, would expect the ECM to be over amplifying, as it's against all the other models

Who knows, perhaps it can lead the way for once this winter?

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Difference between ukmo and ECM at 144 is quite notable.

Very cold at 168 on ecm, not too much precipitation though, would expect the ECM to be over amplifying, as it's against all the other models

Over-amplified or not it is a busted flush by T192:

[Griff]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Over-amplified or not it is a busted flush by T192:

Isn't it at that point we switch to the ECM // () 

Fair point BTW

[Griff]

[Griff]

And ecm // day 10 just for fun

[Dancerwithwings]

Differences regarding the anomaly’s 0z 240h vs the 12z 240h  

positives if you ask me

 

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Differences regarding the anomaly’s 0z 240h vs the 12z 240h  

positives if you ask me

 

Would agree with that but it isn’t supported by the other models, need another day or two to firm up either way, but today it looks less positive for a cold spell than yesterday.  

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Wow the cold chasing crew i put together as fallen apart... @Mike Poole you won't be getting your membership fee back for joining my cold club...No returns unfortunately for the Summer hunting crew

ECM looks pretty good to me and it screams of a potential reload towards day 10 anyway...im afraid Summer will have to wait...till hang on a sec...let me think!!  June 1st!! Winter ain't done this evening....come on guys one last push...I've got the backup troops on standby if need be.

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Wow the cold chasing crew i put together as fallen apart... @Mike Poole you won't be getting your membership fee back for joining my cold club...No returns unfortunately for the Summer hunting crew

ECM looks pretty good to me and it screams of a potential reload towards day 10 anyway...im afraid Summer will have to wait...till hang on a sec...let me think!!  June 1st!! Winter ain't done this evening....come on guys one last push...I've got the backup troops on standby if need be.

You never know Matt, could be on to something. 

We all have anecdotes of seeing more snow in April than December...

I'm sure we had a few flakes in March, when was it? Oh yeah, 2018...

[Tim Bland]

20 minutes ago, Griff said:

It’s cold and grey with the chance of a sleet shower in eastern Scotland and Norfolk. Need to see those purples and lower pressure if it’s snow your looking for in March...

[Griff]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s cold and grey with the chance of a sleet shower in eastern Scotland and Norfolk. Need to see those purples and lower pressure if it’s snow your looking for in March...

I'm sure someone can post a cheesy and over used "so you're saying there's a chance" meme on my my behalf

... And yes another fair point, but who knows, I've seen worse charts.  

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, Griff said:

I'm sure someone can post a cheesy and over used "so you're saying there's a chance" meme on my behalf

Just for you..

 

There’s actually some pretty exciting potential in the GEFS 12z towards mid March...

Edited February 27, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Gowon]

44 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Wow the cold chasing crew i put together as fallen apart... @Mike Poole you won't be getting your membership fee back for joining my cold club...No returns unfortunately for the Summer hunting crew

ECM looks pretty good to me and it screams of a potential reload towards day 10 anyway...im afraid Summer will have to wait...till hang on a sec...let me think!!  June 1st!! Winter ain't done this evening....come on guys one last push...I've got the backup troops on standby if need be.

The ridge on ECM parallel at the end is better positioned to lock in the cold with colder uppers backing west.

Edited February 27, 2021 by D.V.R
added temp chart

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean 12z:

Up and down again!  So cold possibly end of next week but nothing significant in terms of snow and it is short lived.

Appreciate the efforts of @MATTWOLVES to prolong the winter interest, and I would, but I just don’t see it in the models anymore, so:

ROLL ON SUMMER!!

[Nick F]

I think there's a tendency to flick a switch by some as we enter March each year, that somehow winter should be banished and we should now be welcoming in 'warmer' weather with thoughts of summer. More so this year, as I can totally understand wanting to move quickly to summer, given the carrot at the end of the stick of the relaxation of restrictions.

But winter can bite back with snow, cold days struggling in low single figures and sub zero nights in March and even April. My blog I did for Netweather recently trawls through some of the notable flips in the past from spring-like warmth to winter snow and cold, even in April.

Early spring warmth this year, but sometimes winter can bite back in March or even April

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

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Warmest day of the year so far, with 18.4C reached at Santon Downham in Suffolk. Spring has sprung for some after a winter that featured cold & snowy weather, but winter can bite back in...

Yes, we may not see winter return until later in the year, but we certainly can't dismiss it returning until May.

Back to the models, 12z EC det close to the London mean which stays cold, -5C at T850 from around the 5th through to the end. 

Maybe the EC is on to something with keeping high pressure close by, rather than bringing in a swift breakdown of the high from Atlantic lows, maybe the GFS too progressive? More runs needed ...

Edited February 27, 2021 by Nick F