Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Don]

18 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, first run in quite a while that suggests cold within the semi-reliable, need to watch to see if this signal is growing, I think it is, but a long way to go yet.

You're not thinking about re-joining the March cold spell club are you?! 

[Battleground Snow]

Might just squeeze some snow showers  down the east out of this chart from the ECM para at day 8.

Edit, south east would probably get snow off the 216 chart.

Edited February 26, 2021 by Battleground Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Ooh great another dry easterly.

Well it wasn't a dry Estly for many East and South East areas was it!..plus convection would surely be on the rise at this time of the year...This is still in the early stages so it could become more significant with time...the fact its being now shown by the main models is also note worthy...many were saying there was not a chance of another cold shot...well the chance is there and it will be interesting to see where the models take this in the next few days.

[ICE COLD]

There’s certainly enough really cold air knocking about. If we can a-line the block right we could hit boom town . This is the para at 216 

[Chesil View]

8 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Well it wasn't a dry Estly for many East and South East areas was it!..plus convection would surely be on the rise at this time of the year...This is still in the early stages so it could become more significant with time...the fact its being now shown by the main models is also note worthy...many were saying there was not a chance of another cold shot...well the chance is there and it will be interesting to see where the models take this in the next few days.

I admire your enthusiasm Matt and always enjoy your posts.  But in reality for large parts of the UK the last easterly was mainly dry.  It was what I call a usual suspects easterly. Any high ground on the Eastern side did well along with some but not all parts of East Anglia and the south east along with some northern towns. However lots of people I know in various parts of the UK saw nothing or at most a passing flurry. For me the Early Feb Easterly was not outstanding in anyway. Temps above freezing by day a couple below freezing by night and as for snow I,ve seen more icing sugar on a mince pie. Now three years ago this weekend That WAS an outstanding  easterly. As you say we will see how things develop but I'm not holding my breath. 

[Frosty.]

I think there’s been a swing back towards colder again on today’s models for the first time in a while, rather than just the odd cherry picked GEFS member..   the ECM 0z op certainly piqued my interest and the GEFS seems to have delayed and watered down the Atlantic zonal signal compared to recently...I know I haven’t been posting many cold charts for a while but I am a coldie and hope there is another major cold shot in the making, not just a glancing blow with cold uppers and no snow!...anyway, fingers crossed! ...cheers gang...stellas & sausage baps with brown sauce...etc.. etc

Edited February 26, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters in the T192-T240 range look like they are trending towards an atlantic ridge:

Quite a big shift in the signals from the models this evening towards potential for cold.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

28 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I admire your enthusiasm Matt and always enjoy your posts.  But in reality for large parts of the UK the last easterly was mainly dry.  It was what I call a usual suspects easterly. Any high ground on the Eastern side did well along with some but not all parts of East Anglia and the south east along with some northern towns. However lots of people I know in various parts of the UK saw nothing or at most a passing flurry. For me the Early Feb Easterly was not outstanding in anyway. Temps above freezing by day a couple below freezing by night and as for snow I,ve seen more icing sugar on a mince pie. Now three years ago this weekend That WAS an outstanding  easterly. As you say we will see how things develop but I'm not holding my breath. 

Cheers mate...I did well from the December and January events,but nothing at all from the last Estly..Each cold spell perhaps brings a new challenge though...perhaps a frontal system bumping into the cold air along the line..Im just glad to see the models hinting at what I and a few others have been saying was a possibility...and its great to see the forum have a little spring in its step again...whatever happens it will still be fun...maybe this time you will drop lucky..

@legritter I think you have a doppleganger my son..someone imitating your posts! Nobody does it quite like you though.

 

 

 

Edited February 26, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Aye, noticed someone copying legritter! not great doing that really

[Frosty.]

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean is trending colder in the mid range as the position / orientation of the high changes...ps...I apologise if some don’t like my sense of humour, certainly no offence is intended, just light hearted banter!

[2010]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean is trending colder in the mid range as the position / orientation of the high changes...ps...I apologise if some don’t like my sense of humour, certainly no offence is intended, just light hearted banter!

You're fine Karl. Everyone knows your sense of humour 

[Jordan S]

Apart from some light rain for Scotland and Northern Ireland early tomorrow, it will be mostly dry for all for the next few days with high pressure over us during the weekend and drifting just to our east for the first half of next week.

Tomorrow..

Sunday..

with the possible exception of a little rain or showers around the middle of the week in a few areas, the settled and dry weather probably lasting to the end of next week, also likely a little colder at the end of the week.

Tuesday..

Friday..

Further ahead and although a few model outputs show a continuation of drier and perhaps a colder pattern, a wetter and windier pattern for a few days looking more likely atleast for northern areas during the following week beginning 8th march.

Gfs control and average as an example below..

Gfs control..

10th March..

The Gfs average.

10th March..

But for atleast the next 4-7 days in many areas looking mostly settled and dry with sunshine at times, though quite cold at night with frosts likely in places especially later next week and possibly next weekend.

Edited February 26, 2021 by jordan smith

[stodge]

Evening all

Up to three pages this evening - a twitch on the thread for a final push of cold or a false evening dawn (so to speak)?

There were signs in far FI last evening of a significant pattern change to a much colder, more unsettled and stormier scenario - not atypical of March to be fair but a notable change from the current benign anticyclonic environment.

In the more immediate, the T+144 and T+240 charts from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel.

T+144 (March 4th):

T+240 (March 8th):

 

Unanimity at T+144 across the models as a lobe of heights breaks off from Greenland and develops to the north or north west of the British Isles but it doesn't hang around there unfortunately and sinks down over the British Isles. ECM moves the HP to the south west but retains it as the main feature influencing the British Isles. GEM withdraws the HP further south west allowing an Atlantic trough to move in from the west but there's more than a hint of upstream amplification by T+240. Parallel also declines the HP south west but with a shallow LP over Iberia there's a hint of an E'ly along the Channel. GFS OP goes in a different direction moving the HP east to Denmark with a SE'ly airflow by T+240. The short term remains settled but with a push of colder air over next weekend.

Moving on and T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control and CFS:

T+312 (March 11th):

T+384 (March 14th):

 

A varied set of output in the longer term as we head toward mid March. Both GFS OP and CFS keep with the stormy scenario with LP close to the British Isles and a cold PM airmass in charge. Parallel keeps heights to the east so the British isles enjoys a warmer S'ly air flow with the trough held to the west while Control is a messy scenario with a cut off LP over southern England and Northern France and heights building to the north of that. 

While it's no Beast by any stretch, it certainly will feel more like winter next weekend as HP briefly sets up to the north or north west and feeds in a colder airflow off the North Sea and Scandinavia. There's no signal for that to last at this time with the HP sinking south and then either southwest or east depending on which model you follow. From there, some models want to bring in a strong Atlantic presence but it would be "cold zonality" but that's far from the only option on the table at this time but none of this has been resolved as you would expect.

[Tim Bland]

The ECM run is cold and dry, not even a sleety shower for most . We can’t see precip charts for the Para but would expect more in the way of snow showers in the east

[legritter]

Hi gang ,nice to see your all enjoying yourselves on the Planets best top of the range weather Forum .some interest on tonights Ecm ,but modeling wants to drop high pressure south later in the run ,but at this range and especially at 168hrs we could if things fall right  draw in some cold 850s from the east and north east ,beyond that its Dream time ,but dreams can come true Gang so stay tuned .I'M out of baps tonight ,iv cooked me sausages and buttered me bread ,Daddies sauce ,Branston pickle and the Dog by my side ,I'll leave you with a Sizzling chart from my friend google ,cheers gang STELLAS are on me .

[Mike Poole]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

The ECM run is cold and dry, not even a sleety shower for most . We can’t see precip charts for the Para but would expect more in the way of snow showers in the east

Yes, if it happens it will be a case of get the cold in first, then worry about the precipitation!  Was ever thus...

[Griff]

8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

The ECM run is cold and dry, not even a sleety shower for most . We can’t see precip charts for the Para but would expect more in the way of snow showers in the east

I think there will be many with a recent loathing of precipitation and snow depth charts. 

Very mixed bag recently. 

So I'm calling it a streetlamp and window nowcast situation

[Griff]

As the pub run comes out, just a musing on what @Battleground Snow rightly mentioned this week, regarding the GFS first spotting a signal change, with potential for heights, only to drop it and then be picked up on a bit later by the ECM.

I know many here consider the ECM and UKMO combo the baseline for solid prospects, but my limited experience this winter had up until now relied on the GFS for fireworks.

Hoping for the best, expecting nothing. 

Edited February 26, 2021 by Griff

[Griff]

BTW ecm // did this... Apologies if already posted. 

[Mike Poole]

Sharper WAA on the GFS pub run compared to the 12z at T126 (12z at T132 for comparison)

Edit even better on // at same time:

Edited February 26, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Tim Bland]

31 minutes ago, Griff said:

I think there will be many with a recent loathing of precipitation and snow depth charts. 

Very mixed bag recently. 

So I'm calling it a streetlamp and window nowcast situation

Haha yes true, but if anything we know that the ECM over does the precip / snow amounts usually. Hence why I’m yet to get excited! 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Haha yes true, but if anything we know that the ECM over does the precip / snow amounts usually. Hence why I’m yet to get excited! 

 

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

And //

[Mike Poole]

Pub run and // T144:

Quite different, the last rites of the SSW could be relevant here, the // will resolve this better because of the higher vertical resolution.  But it really is the last rites of the SSW, normal service is to be resumed shortly in the strat.  

[Griff]

No ecm this