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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    48 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Not something that the 6-10 or 8-14 noaa supports! That is the output last evening which is rather different from what it has shown for several days. Neither EC nor GFS have changed their pattern but Noaa may be showing what the pattern is going to be. As usual I will wait 2-3 days to see if it persists with this output.

    What is it?

    A general westerly with some 'suggestion' of height rises near the Azores!

     

     

    rather nondescript imho, and with a low confidence rating 2/5 on both charts. imho theres no clear signal on the anomalies.

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    28 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    rather nondescript imho, and with a low confidence rating 2/5 on both charts. imho theres no clear signal on the anomalies.

    Its a good enough signal IF it is kept over the next 48 hours. IF it is correct then it makes quite a change to the likely weather pattern. But as I continually stress about these charts, one is not sufficient, 2-3 the same and then yes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Differences between ECM/UKMO and GFS at the 120 hr timeframe, how many times have we been here before, too many to mention.

    What is the difference, handling of Atlantic trough, again par for the course.

    ECM and Ukmo much less progressive than GFS, again normal service.

    What tends to happen, they each meet half way.

    Doesnt always happen, but if it does, then expect high pressure to stay close to the UK but not far away enough to allow Atlantic to gain the upper hand, or in a position to advect notable cold, not saying some depth of cold is out of the question..  and not saying ECM or GFS is wide of the mark.

    All eyes on developments to the NW, whether the trough stays to the west allowing warm air advection in vicinity of east Greenland and consequent height development anchoring heights over and to our east to ridge NW and merge allowing for colder air from the east, or alternatively the trough is further east preventing height build to our NW due to less warm air advection and instead we see high pressure hold in situ meaning average temps and either sun or probably more cloud with a slight easterly drift.

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    Looks like colder weather might be trying to make a comeback then. Hopefully we can squeeze one last decent cold spell out of this winter before spring properly sets in.👍

    2CC0C18C-BA11-4608-9C77-C1127B5C4772.thumb.png.b34ca3c9920f0d41a3191aa9be7de878.png4E858EE2-7DE9-484E-BA72-8BF4602F90FB.thumb.png.683dac902ab95c7c93ed310c0b9e3193.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Better flavour of the UK high as it is pushed east on the gfs 12z run; d8-12:

    anim_sux1.gif

    So colder after a milder blip next week. The gfsP not as good, and it seems that the gfs is struggling negotiating the transactions between the larger-scale Atlantic features. GEM is closer to this morning's means.

    The general take remains as predominantly dry until d10?

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    UKMO with heights building to the north....

    spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    That UKMO 144 chart has dragged me back from hibernation. If the centre of pressure was over Iceland it would be a boom from me. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    1 hour ago, chris55 said:

    UKMO with heights building to the north....

    spacer.png

    Similarities to early January 2010?

    Edited by snowblizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    ECM 12z looks interesting at t192.😁

    B6216838-99A5-467F-B9C1-8FB205D1FEC2.thumb.png.b2746f0d8b41a1a3b760ec8303c4eb6d.png52B03216-DF07-4205-92C6-77D3378D4B8E.thumb.png.12a0c9ce58c1dae773654216040aeb49.png

    Edited by Matt H
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    We seem to be inching there...

    No Greenland high being shown yet, just a ridge ...

    5FA9F4AF-2B2A-40D0-9127-EA6561ECCEA4.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    B+ ... must try harder from me.  Temps of 5c to 7c and grey skies don’t cut if for me in spring. I’d rather have a beast or early taste of summer...

    C04C11A7-E702-4EB7-8C49-D16E6A006145.jpeg

    E2A5BA8D-E28A-485A-833C-F6EAAB99A9B9.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    41 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    T168 ECM hello hello hello 

    FE2351A1-0DFC-41B0-9A7D-1F711D6CF613.png

    20C2AD4A-A8C9-4B6D-A01E-47357D133AF3.png

    96D516BA-6C9E-4932-A50A-34BC53F068AB.png

    Yes, first run in quite a while that suggests cold within the semi-reliable, need to watch to see if this signal is growing, I think it is, but a long way to go yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    B+ ... must try harder from me.  Temps of 5c to 7c and grey skies don’t cut if for me in spring. I’d rather have a beast or early taste of summer...

    C04C11A7-E702-4EB7-8C49-D16E6A006145.jpeg

    I agree, a high with a colder upper air flow. Even the coldest gefs for my region barely go below 0c at night with highs of around 7c (after d6)! Dry, cool and cloudy but as we enter March just run of the mill stuff. We need the pattern to shift west a good 500 miles to benefit from the trough dropping to our east:

    graphe6_10000_309_158___.thumb.gif.90af98fb59d963d6f460f09d6f773268.gif

    gefs post d10 looks like flattening the pattern and the ecm op looks to be going that way?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Ooh great another dry easterly.

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