Model output discussion 10/02/21

[beefy201]

On the cusp of something quite special here for March I think for cold lovers

[Bricriu]

10 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

On the cusp of something quite special here for March I think for cold lovers

What are you basing this on? All  i see is  perhaps something chilly by week 2, but nothing special.

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

What are you basing this on? All  i see is  perhaps something chilly by week 2, but nothing special.

I’ve just looked through the GEFS 12z perturbations and there’s certainly some wintery interest beyond day 10 (T+240 hours) when it becomes more unsettled with potential for cold zonal and perhaps even some arctic maritime?..but before that it’s looking increasingly settled under high pressure, I guess the only uncertainty is the orientation of the high which will determine cloud / sunshine amounts and how it will feel at the surface but I think there will be plenty of sunshine next week with some overnight frost / mist and fog.  

Edited February 25, 2021 by Jon Snow

[beefy201]

5 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

What are you basing this on? All  i see is  perhaps something chilly by week 2, but nothing special.

The models aren’t always the answer believe it it or not patterns and nature watching are for more reliable ... ask your self what are models ... computer churning crap fed into them ... recent performance of any models short or even long term have tbf been poor at best ... watch this space is all I can say

[MATTWOLVES 3]

16 minutes ago, beefy201 said:

The models aren’t always the answer believe it it or not patterns and nature watching are for more reliable ... ask your self what are models ... computer churning crap fed into them ... recent performance of any models short or even long term have tbf been poor at best ... watch this space is all I can say

Ohh ok...and heres me thinking the model output gives us the main realistic chance of what the Hemisphere is up to. So if I see a flock of geese flying South over my roof in the next few days I will know its game on.

 

[Griff]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Ohh ok...and heres me thinking the model output gives us the main realistic chance of what the Hemisphere is up to. So if I see a flock of geese flying South over my roof in the next few days I will know its game on.

 

Well amplification day 8 plus still needs to be resolved (we'll probably post day 3 or 4)

Edited February 25, 2021 by Griff

[Griff]

Anyone know what's up with the absent ECM parallel today? Ta

[Frosty.]

The ECM 12z operational becomes settled / anticyclonic from this weekend onwards, there’s some changes to the position / orientation of the high pressure cell (s) next week which means we flirt with some colder uppers (850’s) for a time but essentially it’s a fine looking picture with variable amounts of cloud / sunshine and light winds for much of the time..it would feel pleasant in the sunshine but overnight, where skies clear there could be slight frosts and some mist / fog patches...it’s looking increasingly blocked for sure, no sign that the Atlantic will fire up like the GEFS indicates beyond day 10!  

 

[Mike Poole]

As we await the clusters, ECM mean and spread T240:

That doesn’t rule out the incoming northerly hinted at by GEM at all.  

[stodge]

Evening all

Rather like England in the cricket, everyone seems to be all out after tea so the thread seems deathly quiet.

The stalwart coldies are hopefully keeping the faith for one final shot of something special this spring - it woudn't be unusual to have some colder weather in March or even early April and I've seen snow on the ground in East Ham on March 31st so it's a long way from being "over" whatever updates ne chooses to read or ignore.

As usual, it's the T+144 and T+240 charts first from GEM, ECM, GFS OP and GFS Parallel

T+144 (March 3rd):

T+240 (March 7th):

Growing divergence across the models after an extended period of relative unanimity. The HP which develops over the British Isles this weekend soon declines south east into Europe but projects a ridge back north west towards heights over Greenland - both ECM and GFS OP show this quite clearly. GEM quickly collapses any heights as the trough moves NE into Scandinavia but with renewed amplification at T+240 there's a PM airflow from the west by T+240 and a possibility of a more direct N'ly. ECM moves the HP down to the North Sea and that's where it stays supported by a shallow LP to the south west of the British Isles. GFS OP is the best for coldies -a lobe of energy from the Atlantic trough is detached and slides SE into France with heights to the north and we get an E'ly with uppers generally below -4 and even below -8 over eastern Scotland. Parallel also manages to get some cold air in to be fair.

On then to the T+312 and T+384 charts from GFS OP, Parallel, Control an CFS:

T+312 (March 10th):

T+384 (March 13th):

Clear hints of a significant pattern change going into March. With the exception of Parallel, which does keep the anticyclonic pattern, the other models all show a much stronger vortex and a series of stormy LP moving south towards or over the British Isles. It would be a case of the lamb followed by the lion to paraphrase the normal parlance for March. I'm not suggesting widespread lowland snow but I am suggesting significant snowfall for mountains and other high ground especially from both OP and Control. It's a trend we've seen in recent days and it seems to be developing and is one to watch.

[ANYWEATHER]

A curtain of fine weather for just about all with fine days but some cold and potentially misty foggy nights at first but with some sparkling late winter sunshine with a little bit of Umph with a strengthening sun. There is at the moment a caveat from the models of something much colder from the East or Northeast in about a weeks time , will be interesting to see if this continues down the line....

[Don]

I don't think I will see anything IMBY now but at least model watching is a bit more interesting!

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

I don't think I will see anything IMBY now but at least model watching is a bit more interesting!

Don's on board! Start up the snowplough! 

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters....

...I just cant be bothered today, don’t know why, just fed up with the whole thing I guess...

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Don's on board! Start up the snowplough! 

Too blooming right!

[Don]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters....

...I just cant be bothered today, don’t know why, just fed up with the whole thing I guess...

Because you know if you don't view them they will be epic! 

[Mike Poole]

Just now, Don said:

Because you know if you don't view them they will be epic! 

I have viewed them and they aren’t!  

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I have viewed them and they aren’t!  

Damn, I was ready to get the snowplough out! 

Here's some advice, don't bother viewing them and they might flip!

Edited February 25, 2021 by Don

[MATTWOLVES 3]

13 minutes ago, Don said:

Damn, I was ready to get the snowplough out! 

Here's some advice, don't bother viewing them and they might flip!

I've seen worse from the extended mean out to day 14...its a cooling trend..mean around-2C...again a fair amount of spread also..plenty of runs go colder. Still a chance of something more wintry...if all fails then so be it...im sure we will all have a great Summer with the restrictions being loosened....and I'm pretty sure we will be raring to go in another 8 or 9 months...yes you heard correct!!! It will soon be winter 21/22..not as im wishing my life away here

Edited February 25, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Allseasons-Si]

49 minutes ago, Griff said:

Don's on board! Start up the snowplough! 

Yes,...without the plough

seriously though i have my doubt's past days 5-6 on how the placement or how amplified this high pressure cell is towards Greenland and i feel that there will be more twists and turns in the next couple of days because the models are all over the place after that

remember that we are still in February and things can quickly flip to cold under the right conditions and with the sun getting stronger that would aid in more convective snowfall

i am a coldie as you know but if this last chance cold saloon doesn't happen then i will happily take us into spring and warmth

on to the 18z...

 

[Griff]

Pub op and //

[Allseasons-Si]

The 18z gfs//p is a lot more amplified at just 156...

18z 156 v's 12z 163.

[Griff]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes,...without the plough

seriously though i have my doubt's past days 5-6 on how the placement or how amplified this high pressure cell is towards Greenland and i feel that there will be more twists and turns in the next couple of days because the models are all over the place after that

remember that we are still in February and things can quickly flip to cold under the right conditions and with the sun getting stronger that would aid in more convective snowfall

i am a coldie as you know but if this last chance cold saloon doesn't happen then i will happily take us into spring and warmth

on to the 18z...

 

I think... I'm not sure

But I'd be perfectly happy with pleasant weather. Denis (PV twitter) is getting excited about trop PV coupled and displaced in a week's time, if so there could be a cold Northerly  

Edited February 25, 2021 by Griff

[Don]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

The 18z gfs//p is a lot more amplified at just 156...

18z 156 v's 12z 163.

Too much in the way of heights to the south.

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Too much in the way of heights to the south.

The Kent clipper