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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM clusters T120-T168, and there are 5:

    3D1AD934-195F-46C0-86FA-EE4180236DCE.thumb.png.dbc437cab607863e0483c2038be2b2e8.png

    None is completely ideal, but:  The first seems still to promote the scandi high, some element of high lat blocking on the second and third but not well aligned.  4 and 5 end with a UK high or close to it.  Some way to go to resolve this, not worth looking at the longer timescales on these if this is so uncertain.

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    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM clusters T120-T168, and there are 5:

    3D1AD934-195F-46C0-86FA-EE4180236DCE.thumb.png.dbc437cab607863e0483c2038be2b2e8.png

    None is completely ideal, but:  The first seems still to promote the scandi high, some element of high lat blocking on the second and third but not well aligned.  4 and 5 end with a UK high or close to it.  Some way to go to resolve this, not worth looking at the longer timescales on these if this is so uncertain.

    I think my fatigue got the better of me last night, or perhaps selective memory, how do these compare to 24 hours ago? Ta

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Going to indulge myself (sorry mods) with a model related tweet in the model thread.... 

    Cue moans that it's not ready for prime time etc 😜

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    4 minutes ago, Griff said:

    I think my fatigue got the better of me last night, or perhaps selective memory, how do these compare to 24 hours ago? Ta

    No idea, @Griff, don’t think I looked at them yesterday.  (Probably someone will tell me I posted them yesterday now, but I’m on lockdown levels of beer consumption at the moment 🍺)

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent

    Well my own views on this week. I've just had a taxi customer say how much warmer it feels tonight. The wind has dropped so its actually a nice winters night.

    Give me 2010 cold event or a massive Snow event over these easterlies anytime.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The EPS and ext EPS...

    20210210210815-3bd463adff4cab5deb4facb321750fdfd761b9aa.thumb.png.cdb420ea1e66541d1ef0ab0859c8aeb4.png20210210210932-c83cc868219f2797940bed42d227d41ad83ddd4a.thumb.png.26f92dc3da08965bf569c27df08669df.png

    ^ i would take that at day ten with the op and control in cluster 1,the ext a bit muted at that range as you would expect but i would take again cluster 1 but cluster 4 ins't nae bad either

    on to the NOAA anomalies 6-10/8-14 day 500mb outlook shows some interest for coldies as the Atlantic trough retracts further away to the west in the ext.

    610day_03.thumb.gif.aa6ca5c65f0bf168d13c7e6cfdac801a.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.c15029b954d318f597cffccd0d57988b.gif

    on to the pub crawl☺️

     

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    The ICON 18z T120 needs to be seen in the context of the 12z T126, and it is a big shift to cold:

    CEBAA4A1-E21C-440E-A402-0DEBFB480F10.thumb.png.2b99a87699b286d37cc757a224680f93.png54B1AB99-A8F6-4E59-8207-F8164169AE30.thumb.png.1fbc17169591c722f34734774b23021a.png

    995 low south of Ireland going under ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
    4 minutes ago, snowice said:

    995 low south of Ireland going under ??

    Not with those iberian heights unfortunately 😕

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Just a couple of notes from the models

    1) Surface temperatures actually look like they could dip a little further from where they are now, there is a last ditch swipe of cold from the south east into the weekend that could place many central and eastern areas into the ice day category on Saturday (Tomorrow and Friday look touch and go like the last few days). Add in a fairly brisk south easterly breeze and it is going to feel raw.

    2) Sunday isn't guaranteed to turn milder everywhere, the east could hold out for one more cold day depending on how long it takes for the winds to shift west of south (Strangely this is the turning point rather than the front that effectively gives up the ghost across the UK). Monday however does look milder for all.

    3) The ridge east of the UK remains stubborn into week 2, and there is quite an envelope of solutions that could occur, some that would hint at cold weather returning potentially.

    ECM ens day 6/8/10

    image.thumb.png.25754418d4e2fefd0a8c9b28e210a212.png   image.thumb.png.6763875ce7d47ecaf317e29e059a99af.png   image.thumb.png.eef05bbdc3d39981e0dec58734338199.png      

    Certainly enough there to keep a cursory glance for an easterly at some point after mid-month.

     

     

    Edited by Captain Shortwave
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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Just adding the Front that pull the milder weather Saturday or Sunday  may give freezing rain and some snow watch this space.....

    h850t850eu-3.png

    ecmt850.096.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    14 minutes ago, Frostbite1980 said:

    Not with those iberian heights unfortunately 😕

    There's always something that has to prevent something special 😞

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

    Just adding the Front that pull the milder weather Saturday or Sunday  may give freezing rain and some snow watch this space.....

    h850t850eu-3.png

    ecmt850.096.png

    Not on the EC chart, just normal rain! hopefully GFS got this right

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Early doors on the pub run, but even at T90 there’s a big difference, compared to T96 on 12z, see the two lows (circled) the eastern one is much stronger, should aid WWA:

    F94A2E98-12C8-42A0-B1A2-A1637D1087DD.thumb.jpeg.9af24c3435408b10f11811968125447d.jpegABD73F05-7EAE-48FB-B639-AD5A4DD308C9.thumb.png.614962454477d1eff8c59eab313b66e0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Just now, Griff said:

    GFS and para at 90... 

    Believe nothing! 

    🤔

    gfsnh-0-90 (1).png

    gfsnh-0-90.png

    Para looks better to me at this early stage, much better alignment.  

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Early doors on the pub run, but even at T90 there’s a big difference, compared to T96 on 12z, see the two lows (circled) the eastern one is much stronger, should aid WWA:

    F94A2E98-12C8-42A0-B1A2-A1637D1087DD.thumb.jpeg.9af24c3435408b10f11811968125447d.jpegABD73F05-7EAE-48FB-B639-AD5A4DD308C9.thumb.png.614962454477d1eff8c59eab313b66e0.png

    Something a bit dodgy about the Atlantic low of doom out west. Just feels so peculiar, gigantic and not really going anywhere... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    I don't know if this has been lost in all the post's as i haven't looked yet but the 12z gfs//p brought -16 uppers into the SE by 180 with a dam of 510,lets see where the 18z goes.

    gfs-1-186.thumb.png.6f7e547c2c019a0189f458a7b548992f.pnggfs-3-186.thumb.png.0be3dd44724028e2d57d9995fb07fac2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    Just now, Griff said:

    Something a bit dodgy about the Atlantic low of doom out west. Just feels so peculiar, gigantic and not really going anywhere... 

    I think some of the models are overblowing it, but the main reason is it cannot get any closer because of the block.  And the block may be stronger than some of the models, and some forecasters, think.  

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    I think some of the models are overblowing it, but the main reason is it cannot get any closer because of the block.  And the block may be stronger than some of the models, and some forecasters, think.  

    It's the overblown I'm struggling with... 

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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