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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    Can’t say much about next winter, but should still be low solar, and maybe the EQBO might actually happen this time...a lot of reasons to be optimistic, and I don’t think whatever summer we may have will detract from that, or change it at all really.  

    No, but during colder winter clusters the summers do tend to be a bit iffy, like those during the mid-80's and the 2007-2012 period.  However, I know that would not please many!

    @Griffwho says I don't support the synoptics?! 😆

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    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    28 minutes ago, Griff said:

    What have I missed? 

    😂 I just messaged @MATTWOLVESto ask the same question! 

    Whats up Doc....you mean the cold hunt is still on!  Surely not....what have I missed...not the bit about you being a pilot on twitter! 🤣

    gfs-0-240.png

    gfs-1-246.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    24 minutes ago, Don said:

    Hmm, not sure that will bode well for winter 2021/22 but pointless to be really thinking that far ahead lol!

    Come on Don...talk of this Summer is premature at this stage...talk of next winter super premature...And I'm pretty sure @Mike Poole was talking of last Summer being like 2018... I think I'm right Mike! Feel free to correct me....2018 summers won't come along that often...warming climate or not..they are usually spaced around 20 years apart if you go back to 76...then...95...then 2018 etc etc...Lets worry about the hear and now and not what conditions may be like in 3 or 4 Months..

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    The OP is very well supported at day 10, with over half of them backing it in terms of high pressure just to the north of the UK.

    The cold pool modelled to drop into Eastern Europe is immense, it's just a case of whether it can make it to us or not.

    Control attached at day 10

    gensnh-0-1-240 (2).png

    gensnh-0-0-240.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Signs on the fi ec op and ecp that the Canadian vortex is indeed drifting towards the pole (as per the strat guidance). does that then allow for a sustained n Atlantic sector height rise later week 2 ??.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    As commented by others, FI teases cold near by, and the gem might be the best of the bunch so far this morning... 

    gemnh-0-210.png

    gemnh-1-210.png

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngECM 0z for 5th March

    Day 10 Op on the ECM 0z catches the eye a bit but is out on its own within the ensembles.

    sheffield_ecmsd850.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    21 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

    spacer.pngECM 0z for 5th March

    Day 10 Op on the ECM 0z catches the eye a bit but is out on its own within the ensembles.

    sheffield_ecmsd850.png

    It's just ahead of the curve 😉 

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Looking good for approx 10 days of settled UK HP, so dry and mild. The CET looks like being close to +2c above average (+1c ATM) for Feb! Who would have thought that?

    London 0z 2m temps>graphe6_10000_304.86816860538966_151.2003196358728___.thumb.png.fc2497edd00804a583744e28991fae25.png

    Signal for the tPV to regroup over the Arctic. D10 gfs 06z:

    gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.15c935fa91c8de11d76e8cddad7e18b7.png

    No sign of any amplification from forcing and with the tPV circulating like that, then pretty average mundane weather post d10 with wedges the best chance of transient cooler interludes? Not ruling out another cold shot, but would say that we are heading towards the twilight of winter and we can now hopefully look forward to a warm late Spring and hot Summer to brighten up the gloom and boost the Economy?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    13 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Come on Don...talk of this Summer is premature at this stage...talk of next winter super premature...And I'm pretty sure @Mike Poole was talking of last Summer being like 2018... I think I'm right Mike! Feel free to correct me....2018 summers won't come along that often...warming climate or not..they are usually spaced around 20 years apart if you go back to 76...then...95...then 2018 etc etc...Lets worry about the hear and now and not what conditions may be like in 3 or 4 Months..

     

     

     

    Merely just an observation Matt of periods of colder winters in the past coinciding with cooler/wetter summers.  Not worried as like you say several months down the line is unknown!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    7 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    @ all my cold hunting crew,I was worried I may be the only one left posting potential cold outcomes,but the theme from the ens still holds some hope moving into March! My towel as just been washed and dried...am I going to launch it?? Not a chance,its been put firmly in the airing cupboard 🤣

    gens-1-0-384.png

    gens-3-0-300.png

    gens-4-1-324.png

    gens-6-0-384.png

    gens-6-1-384.png

    gens-7-0-264.png

    gens-15-0-372.png

    gens-17-1-372.png

    gens-21-1-216.png

    Okay Matt... I'll let you have leg back! image.thumb.png.eb1480f10743b0fcec84b60619b99beb.png  👍😁

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    This is blatantly stolen from JC (no the other one, Judah Cohen, see twitter thread)... 

    Just leaving it here 😜

    20210223_144512.jpg

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Some nice charts today showing high pressure will very soon become predominantly in control.

    I like charts with no rain anywhere in the u k..for a change!😜 ☀️ 

    F1D837F1-C57D-4952-BC3A-9EBDC5CADAB3.thumb.png.26c49ed6490c4fb2b8c196465b5ab206.png1B6D71CB-B20C-4F40-A260-C2301F82A92F.thumb.png.a8897cac6f30a4cf56f07d551bf87ddb.png2896D763-F535-489A-AE28-1EEECACA395F.thumb.png.b6c8b7b3593fa87b301955126ea6d540.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    4th of March keeps cropping up with a high lat block,

    gfsnh-0-210 (10).png

    gfsnh-0-210 (9).png

     

    gfsnh-0-234.png

    gfsnh-1-234.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    Unfortunately that would be a cold sleety mess, but if we can keep high pressure to the North, there is ample cold available in eastern Europe

    Agreed, I'm trying to optimistically show some progression to less slush 🤞 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Yes cold hunting crew the GFS does look on the cold side of things..we even manage some kind of diluted Estly...850s of -4C wouldn't cut it,but if we can keep Heights further North there would be colder air to tap into at some point...if it was to coincide with the final Strat demise we could get lucky...im still hopeful!! A matter of time before Exter come onboard! 😉

    gfs-0-246.png

    gfs-0-264.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Yes cold hunting crew the GFS does look on the cold side of things..we even manage some kind of diluted Estly...850s of -4C wouldn't cut it,but if we can keep Heights further North there would be colder air to tap into at some point...if it was to coincide with the final Strat demise we could get lucky...im still hopeful!! A matter of time before Exter come onboard! 😉

    gfs-0-246.png

    gfs-0-264.png

    Always find though in this location anyway, it dosen't have to be as cold to snow in Mar/Apr and May, as it does in Dec to Feb

    Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Fear not coldies...this one will definitely deliver 

    gens-11-1-252.png

    gens-11-0-264.png

    tenor-9.gif

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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