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Model output discussion 10/02/21

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads. 
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted

Here i am still searching for one more Winters blast before Spring proper arrives next month! What do the ens say? There is still some hope yet for one last Swan song...where is everyone! I feel like the world as been wiped out and I'm using a low frequency radio signal to reach out to some fellow coldies...my message is...there is still hope and salvation out there....follow the signal....it leads to cold

 

 

 

 

gens-0-1-288.png

gens-0-0-336.png

gens-2-0-384.png

gens-4-0-372.png

gens-6-0-360.png

gens-12-1-372.png

gens-19-1-324.png

gens-19-0-348.png

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Swave Snow Aficionado

Swave Snow

Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Location: NW London
Posted
57 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Here i am still searching for one more Winters blast before Spring proper arrives next month! What do the ens say? There is still some hope yet for one last Swan song...where is everyone! I feel like the world as been wiped out and I'm using a low frequency radio signal to reach out to some fellow coldies...my message is...there is still hope and salvation out there....follow the signal....it leads to cold

 

 

 

 

gens-0-1-288.png

gens-0-0-336.png

gens-2-0-384.png

gens-4-0-372.png

gens-6-0-360.png

gens-12-1-372.png

gens-19-1-324.png

gens-19-0-348.png

and do you think it will also come the Highlands lol

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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
14 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon is probably a fair representation of where the high will be in early March, sunny days and frosty nights, if the high moves 500 miles north it will be a different story though

iconnh-0-180 (29).png

As long as it's dry that's the main thing ☺️

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted
32 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Icon is probably a fair representation of where the high will be in early March, sunny days and frosty nights, if the high moves 500 miles north it will be a different story though

iconnh-0-180 (29).png

Commendable work being undertaken by yourself, MW and others to feed the hope!

I'm looking at that picture and wondering yet if, against my own expectations, we can still get a development like March 1867 out of this, when the CET for the month was nearly 4C lower than the very warm February that preceded it (3.1C for March , 6.9C for Feb).

How it evolved from 23rd Feb through to 7th March that year.....

 

677478496_WinterMarch1867.thumb.jpg.3676c1ac6fcb102228b180aaac78b973.jpg

 

 

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted (edited)

Gem teasing by day 10 again, will be interesting when we get Ukmo in range of early March soon.

I'm hoping for one last snowy blast, then straight into warm sunny days by March 29th and a heatwave by 12th April for pub gardens

gemnh-0-240 (9).png

Edited by Battleground Snow
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem teasing by day 10 again, will be interesting when we get Ukmo in range of early March soon.

I'm hoping for one last snowy blast, then straight into warm sunny days by March 29th and a heatwave by 12th April for pub gardens

gemnh-0-240 (9).png

// etc etc... 

gfsnh-0-252.png

Edited by Griff
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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
13 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

I'm hoping for one last snowy blast, then straight into warm sunny days by March 29th and a heatwave by 12th April for pub gardens

 

I would go along with that, another cold shot in March but then some pleasant outdoor weather for when pub gardens open in April!

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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted
2 minutes ago, Don said:

I would go along with that, another cold shot in March but then some pleasant outdoor weather for when pub gardens open in April!

Yes, I think we can all agree that 12 degrees and rain is boring, and is the weather we get for 6-7 months of the year.

The OP with a powerful northerly blast at the end.

gfsnh-0-384 (3).png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Gem teasing by day 10 again, will be interesting when we get Ukmo in range of early March soon.

I'm hoping for one last snowy blast, then straight into warm sunny days by March 29th and a heatwave by 12th April for pub gardens

gemnh-0-240 (9).png

Your not asking for too much than mate!!

Knowing our luck it will be snowing for the opening of those beer Gardens...and we will all be on radar watch.

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
54 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

2018 is a good template. I think we hit 28 or 29 degrees around April the 18th, if I remember correctly

I think the switch to warm will be sudden, but I expect it to be earlier this year than 2018, similar situation for the NH, strong SSW, effects now nearly over.  Not so positive for colder spells here, but I expect once the effects of the SSW are finished, a warm settled spell should soon take hold.  Last week in March or first week in April for me.  

On the 12s, i notice the idea of the high migrating north is not completely done away with, the GEM makes a decent fist of it.

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, Battleground Snow said:

That should a raise an eyebrow. Especially the para.

 

ECH1-216 (11).gif

ECH1-216 (10).gif

Increasingly amplified and seems to be shifting the high to the West... 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM T240:

F98D9598-1651-435E-BFCA-571A90846231.thumb.png.548e14383cec6292351e733df221df56.png

Looks likely that the route from there would be a high moving towards Scandi.  Still some work to do to get the cold to UK even then, but interesting along with GEM and GFS // tonight.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Well guys it looks like its us few against the World...The rest of the party have retired till next November...Still some crazy ens about so all is not lost! 

Tell you what if we can get that purple blob of doom in..I will be taking a wild dance in it.

gens-4-1-312.png

gens-5-1-336.png

gens-11-1-264.png

gens-11-0-276.png

gens-11-1-384.png

gens-14-1-384.png

gens-16-1-360.png

gens-17-0-300.png

tenor (3).gif

Edited by MATTWOLVES
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

ECM clusters in the extended T264-T360, well pick the bones out of that:

361AC904-B396-4E9C-BBC1-7C2DC8E1E251.thumb.png.9c686630888498e8d6b4f79ca32c6a4f.png

Well I guess clusters 1, 3, 6 look best for a bonus cold blast in early spring, but the range of options is large on that!

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Your not asking for too much than mate!!

Knowing our luck it will be snowing for the opening of those beer Gardens...and we will all be on radar watch.

Don't get me wrong, snow wouldn't stop me from being in the beer garden!  The problem is, I most likely would be on my own! 

Edited by Don
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