Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Meteogroup (BBC) talking about 18c possibly being reached in parts of East Anglia Weds. in the sun that will feel very warm

Can we add a couple of degrees to that given they often underestimate the temperatures?

[Gowon]

19 minutes ago, Don said:

Considering the rest of February looks mild, I think it's safe to say from a cold perspective winter passed away last weekend?!

But wintery weather is not dead completely just because it's mild now or next week?  

[Don]

1 hour ago, D.V.R said:

But wintery weather is not dead completely just because it's mild now or next week?  

We could still get wintery weather in March and April but that is spring.  Technically with winter being December to February, there is no more cold on offer now, although if we do get cold weather during the next couple of months, it would be a hangover from winter, so yes related.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Don

[Bradowl]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Considering the rest of February looks mild, I think it's safe to say from a cold perspective winter passed away last weekend?!

Probably yes for any severe cold but remember that Snow can fall right up till May. 

With correct set up it's still possible to see a foot of snow falling even in April never mind March. 

Edited February 21, 2021 by Bradowl

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, D.V.R said:

But wintery weather is not dead completely just because it's mild now or next week?  

Yes never discount wintry weather until May I say.. a sudden northerly can appear out of nowhere. 

Not much to say on the model front, all rather benign with the stalemate euro high to the SE and Atlantic trough to the west, as we enter March continued signal for heights to ridge into the UK meaning generally fine dry conditions, chilly nights and fairly pleasant days. 

[lassie23]

1 hour ago, D.V.R said:

But wintery weather is not dead completely just because it's mild now or next week?  

A wintery spell is as likely as Liverpool catching Man City, I would say, when you consider the latest model runs 

Edited February 21, 2021 by lassie23

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Still some eye catching ens and one of them going close to that good old Vortex bomb drop,to coin a phrase from the Express! I'm aware many are giving in the chase now,not me...another 4 weeks yet,I have a duty to my cold loving Family both on here and blood relatives to carry this chase on...Yes it may be indefatigable but I've got stamina baby

 

Edited February 21, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Considering the rest of February looks mild, I think it's safe to say from a cold perspective winter passed away last weekend?!

I'm a firm believer in the afterlife and reincarnation though Don..if you get my drift

[Halfamilefromnowhere]

13 hours ago, Don said:

Yep, what a let down this February has turned out to be!  Probably get a few teasers from the models during March but that’s likely to be as as far as it will go.....

Quote

Well the photo enclosed is from the west coast of the Isle of Man 26th March 2013 and yes that is a motor home.  You never know what March can bring...

 

[Don]

3 minutes ago, Halfamilefromnowhere said:

 

That would indeed be wonderful, but I can’t see a March 2013 or 2018 repeat.  However, would be more than happy to eat my words!

Edited February 21, 2021 by Don

[Gowon]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

A wintery spell is as likely as Liverpool catching Man City, I would say, when you consider the latest model runs 

I'm pretty confident we can bury that one now 

[Northernlights]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I'm a firm believer in the afterlife and reincarnation though Don..if you get my drift

Country side brown here with frost kill. Always considered March the hungriest month of the year here on the farm for livestock.Its a winter month up here and can change very rapidly with north and east winds becoming more frequent at this time of year. Snowdrops finally flowering properly but no sign of daffodils yet.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Northernlights

[Frosty.]

This won’t be popular (do I look like I give a damn), I honestly don’t care, it’s the latest model trend and it’s towards high pressure which means settled / benign / pleasant according to the GEFS 6z / ECM 0z ensemble mean...I think most will agree that a spell of settled will be welcome following all the rain / flooding and gales..nuff said!

Edited February 21, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Battleground Snow]

Icon keeping the dream alive.

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

@Battleground Snow @Griff @Allseasons-si @Mike Poole @Don @ all the remaining cold chasers plc....look at that cold pool out East...come on guys its Sunday...say a little prayer  

Edited February 21, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Don]

21 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

This won’t be popular (do I look like I give a damn), I honestly don’t care, it’s the latest model trend and it’s towards high pressure which means settled / benign / pleasant according to the GEFS 6z / ECM 0z ensemble mean...I think most will agree that a spell of settled will be welcome following all the rain / flooding and gales..nuff said!

 

I think it's time you changed your user name to Jon Spring or Jon Sun?!  I don't think Jon Snow is really appropriate anymore! 

[Don]

11 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

@Battleground Snow @Griff @Allseasons-si @Mike Poole @Don @ all the remaining cold chasers plc....look at that cold pool out East...come on guys its Sunday...say a little prayer  

I've been praying for days!

[Allseasons-Si]

15 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

@Battleground Snow @Griff @Allseasons-si @Mike Poole @ all the remaining cold chasers plc....look at that cold pool out East...come on guys its Sunday...say a little prayer  

I am here @MATTWOLVESand i am too

just a quick one as i am seeing to the Sunday roast 

and yes the ICON is flipping marvelous,...i mean it has flipped to a better synoptic

12z 174 v's 00z 180

those who are chasing for warmer weather in Feb,...get real as there is plenty of time for god to shake his head and shed loads of dandruff/snow from the sky

P.S had sausage baps this morning,...with egg

cheers all,...Stella's tonight whilst i watch Man utd

 

Edited February 21, 2021 by Allseasons-si

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

cheers all,...Stella's tonight whilst i watch Man utd

 

You’re one of my favourite posters despite you supporting Man Utd. ..anyway, I’m still a coldie and will ramp with the best of them if there is ensemble mean support for another wintery spell...but until then, I will stick with the latest model trend from the GEFS / ECM mean which is towards a more settled spell beyond the current unsettled conditions!

Edited February 21, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Griff]

56 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

@Battleground Snow @Griff @Allseasons-si @Mike Poole @Don @ all the remaining cold chasers plc....look at that cold pool out East...come on guys its Sunday...say a little prayer  

Gem 12z

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Gem 12z

Signs of retrogression west of the high here at 216...

just need the gfs Bro's to come to the party now though,...maybe they will come kicking and screaming in later runs,...or maybe not

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Signs of retrogression west of the high here at 216...

just need the gfs Bro's to come to the party now though,...maybe they will come kicking and screaming in later runs,...or maybe not

They probably just need a few drinks later! 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Signs of retrogression west of the high here at 216...

just need the gfs Bro's to come to the party now though,...maybe they will come kicking and screaming in later runs,...or maybe not

JFF

[Griff]

24 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Signs of retrogression west of the high here at 216...

just need the gfs Bro's to come to the party now though,...maybe they will come kicking and screaming in later runs,...or maybe not

Will obviously count down without any changes... Just a few more frames Rodney and we'd be millionaires. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Meanwhile,...the Parra-Shute is jammed at 222

the control run could be a good run from day ten>