Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Cheshire Freeze]

47 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

 

But now my attention turns to heat, and I think we are in a good position there going into the warm season, long range modelling is supportive of a decent summer, I will develop this theme in my posts over the next weeks, I’m sure. 

But to coldies, I think that is it for this year.  It has been fun talking so much more than usual on here throughout winter because of the lockdown.  You guys and girls are the best!!

All the very best, Mike.

Really? Last time I checked, GLOSEA looked mixed and CFS had a trough sat just to our west (potentially warm and thundery).

Admittedly not checked for a couple of weeks.

[Gowon]

3 minutes ago, danthetan said:

Anyway...... sorry to Interrupt the winter funeral on the 20th of february. Yes we are going through a mild phase which to be fair is expected as we've been very fortunate this winter.  My thoughts are we will see a few more days of above average temperatures as the High pressure builds from the south later next week it will cut off the supply of warm air and as the days are getting longer so we will continue to see temperatures into double digits but also falling at night to low singe figures. After that a trough dropping into Scandinavia coinciding with vortex in canada on the move which could allow high pressure to pull west and give a northerly.

Yes, it's like burying somebody just because they're at the end of their life.. Wait until they're actually dead first.

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Really? Last time I checked, GLOSEA looked mixed and CFS had a trough sat just to our west (potentially warm and thundery).

Admittedly not checked for a couple of weeks.

Probably a discussion for another day, Crewe?  I posted GloSea the other day, and it looks good, if you like summer that is (!). Admit I haven’t looked at CFS yet!  

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Probably a discussion for another day, Crewe?  I posted GloSea the other day, and it looks good, if you like summer that is (!). Admit I haven’t looked at CFS yet!  

Looks westerly to me Mike, perhaps more in the way of decent ridging further S-

But yes, discussion for another thread!

CFS has decent July with UK troughing for June and August.

Edited February 20, 2021 by CreweCold

[chionomaniac]

Looks like there are no ice sculptured solutions in the offing in the foreseeable looking at the models. What a difference  from earlier in the winter when there were plenty, despite some saying it was a cold biased narrow minded view. Lol. It wasn’t- just a realistic assessment of what was on offer. Just as now is.  Back to the norm. 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Looks like there are no ice sculptured solutions in the offing in the foreseeable looking at the models. What a difference  from earlier in the winter when there were plenty, despite some saying it was a cold biased narrow minded view. Lol. It wasn’t- just a realistic assessment of what was on offer. Just as now is.  Back to the norm. 

Yep, what a let down this February has turned out to be!  Probably get a few teasers from the models during March but that’s likely to be as as far as it will go.....

Edited February 21, 2021 by Don

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Looks like there are no ice sculptured solutions in the offing in the foreseeable looking at the models. What a difference  from earlier in the winter when there were plenty, despite some saying it was a cold biased narrow minded view. Lol. It wasn’t- just a realistic assessment of what was on offer. Just as now is.  Back to the norm. 

Hey chio I disagree with those closing the curtains on Winter..its still to early and we just can't rule out another cold blast.. plenty of ens are showing those Heights in a better position. And personally I think its far to early to be talking about what kind of Summer we are heading for! At least 3months away.

[chionomaniac]

Just now, MATTWOLVES said:

Hey chio I disagree with those closing the curtains on Winter..its still to early and we just can't rule out another cold blast.. plenty of ens are showing those Heights in a better position. And personally I think its far to early to be talking about what kind of Summer we are heading for! At least 3months away.

Lol. Winter ends in a week. Wouldn’t rule out spring cold shots though

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Probably a discussion for another day, Crewe?  I posted GloSea the other day, and it looks good, if you like summer that is (!). Admit I haven’t looked at CFS yet!  

Thing is Mike Glosea was literally absent of the idea of blocking this Winter,so I'm very sceptical on that front!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, chionomaniac said:

Lol. Winter ends in a week. Wouldn’t rule out spring cold shots though

For many it does chio...im old school and keep with the 21st analogy though..

[Cheshire Freeze]

9 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Hey chio I disagree with those closing the curtains on Winter..its still to early and we just can't rule out another cold blast.. plenty of ens are showing those Heights in a better position. And personally I think its far to early to be talking about what kind of Summer we are heading for! At least 3months away.

 

CFS nailed summer 2020 months in advance- it was advertising thundery and thundery we got! 

[syed2878]

3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Pub runs, both of them at T180:

You’d have to back the // here, given the latest influence of the SSW which it will so better resolve given the increased vertical resolution, and it is leading to the more amplified solution yet again.    A question for you mike what convinces you that the Strat will still have its influence with our weather also if that was the case wouldn’t the UK Met pick that signal up to? In their extended forecast they have nothing of the sort. Thank you

 

[SNOWING35]

On 14/02/2021 at 20:57, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Again a model over estimating a cold block, under estimating the Atlantic

It amazes me the Met forecast mild wet  weather days away and it usually comes true every time without fail yet cold or snow and it's a mess or wrong,  British weather eh

[Frosty.]

Lookie here what I found...a Gfs 0z op low res cold snap..any takers?   

[Tim Bland]

Ensembles still not buying any proper cold snap. My towel is being prepared for launch. I’m actually looking forward to some spring sun and warmth next week

[Daniel*]

It’s not looking that mild, pleasant days and frosty nights. Notable how dry it’s looking for most of England and Wales this winter we haven’t really had a break.

[bluearmy]

Same message as yesterday as second week March seems the earliest (based on the means) that we could see cold return. The forecast strat picture slowly being reflected a week or so later on the trop means. Of course we’ve seen many times in the past that a predicted disappearance of the Canadian tpv is overplayed.

 

[mushymanrob]

8 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

Looks like there are no ice sculptured solutions in the offing in the foreseeable looking at the models. What a difference  from earlier in the winter when there were plenty, despite some saying it was a cold biased narrow minded view. Lol. It wasn’t- just a realistic assessment of what was on offer. Just as now is.  Back to the norm. 

Im not a coldie as most of you know, but i entirely agree for what its worth....

[mushymanrob]

IMHO the ECM 00z is likely to be closest to the eventual outcome, as theres strong agreement between the ECM 00z and the NOAA Anomaly charts. heres the 6-10 day mean (so day 8 being the middle of that period) alonside the ECM00z for day 8 (850hpa, i prefer to use the 850s). thats what i call agreement, so the ECM ooz is highly likely to be the nearest current run?

 

[Mike Poole]

7 hours ago, syed2878 said:

 

Sorry, can’t seem to quote your question, but it was about further influence from the strat, I think there is some influence predicted on the NH as a whole, but I think it is looking increasingly unlikely that it will lead to a further cold spell here.  That’s a change from the kind of runs we saw only two or three days ago, but they were always in FI anyway.  

[magicpatch]

44 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s not looking that mild, pleasant days and frosty nights. Notable how dry it’s looking for most of England and Wales this winter we haven’t really had a break.

Would fog/mist start becoming a player under these cooler nights?

I mean it was pleasant yesterday in these parts, but I didn't remove my jacket during my walk yesterday afternoon. Seems we're in for some typical late-Feb / Early March weather, cold mornings/evenings with decent afternoons - where the fog/mist stays away. 

[Don]

2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Lookie here what I found...a Gfs 0z op low res cold snap..any takers?   

 

As I said in my previous post, teasers likely for March but that's all they're likely to be!

[Don]

10 hours ago, D.V.R said:

Yes, it's like burying somebody just because they're at the end of their life.. Wait until they're actually dead first.

Considering the rest of February looks mild, I think it's safe to say from a cold perspective winter passed away last weekend?!

[Timmytour]

2 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

Lookie here what I found...a Gfs 0z op low res cold snap..any takers?   

Gfs trying to sell us a parrot! 

[Tim Bland]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

It’s not looking that mild, pleasant days and frosty nights. Notable how dry it’s looking for most of England and Wales this winter we haven’t really had a break.

Meteogroup (BBC) talking about 18c possibly being reached in parts of East Anglia Weds. in the sun that will feel very warm