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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Take your pick at T192 no 1 or no 2 

    B0610E0F-63CC-49B2-9705-721DD6EF856D.png

    234AA494-EF87-47C1-ABE0-34D8D758ACE3.png

    Im confused? They are both the same date and time stamp.....they are the same chart but slightly different?

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    The Slash, rebuilding heights NE. Again 18th/19th Feb we see the next chance at amplification.

    image.thumb.png.a1619e5800e55b83baf28f772e9228d0.png

    Very similar.

    image.thumb.png.0a53db69d63d8aa261118d5e0f6b4f3e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    It's quite ludicrous how different the models are for next week.

    This isn't even close to being sorted out - one way or the other.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    ECM D10 tease I think here. Final part of the month could be very interesting lines up with BAs wave.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    5 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Im confused? They are both the same date and time stamp.....they are the same chart but slightly different?

    Believe it or not Chris there now running a second ECM op . Bit like the gfs and gfs para 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, ICE COLD said:

    Believe it or not Chris there now running a second ECM op . Bit like the gfs and gfs para 👍

    If they werent going head to head before they certainly are now😈🥴

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  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
    7 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    Im confused? They are both the same date and time stamp.....they are the same chart but slightly different?

    The second one has // in its legend so i assume it's the parallel run.

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  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    D10 ECM doesnt make it but its a start.  Might have to rely on some Arctic heights which will probably cauase a bit of choas within the outputs.

    One final chase before we see out this strange winter?

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    Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
    3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Euro4 similar to gfs at 54 hours again!!!!

    anim_hhn7.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    Fantasy island is anything past Friday for me. Gfs 18z pub run maybe the turning point. The cold spell in my opinion is not over yet. Ens from 12z still show a possibility too. Until they all go mild it's still not certain the cold spell is over. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford
    4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    No sign of the Atlantic making a comeback . Blocking still looks the firm favourite but the uncertainty seems to be cold and drier after that brief milder interlude or colder with a renewed chance of a deeper cold easterly .

    I think it’s going to be a hard slog to avoid that milder interlude , even if we don’t its important to see whether the ECM will pull back from lifting the cold out further east because keeping the cold and the snow cover there could help us if we get another shot at an easterly .

    Hi Nick,got a suspicion that one very big turnaround will happen on the charts regarding milder Atlantic push

    perhaps short notice ie Friday.My take block going nowhere,the proof will of course be in the charts.

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    17 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Well this is going to be fun, 2 ECMs to look at every run!

    image.thumb.png.b3f2617acae5f4c980e6968d7cdd128b.pngimage.thumb.png.acc04256f3ef2099773f60cdca662c7e.png  
    At T216, similar themes - both models trying to break through heights to our south. The charts we're seeing at T144/T168 look like game over, but with a large area of heights stretching up to the NE, it's always a very close thing to bringing back cold from the east.

    Recently easterlies (e.g. 2013, 2018) have tended to be followed shortly after by more easterlies, so don't put the sledge away yet. (Actually I haven't got mine out yet, but it sounded nice to pretend 🙂  )

     

    Model overload! 

    There is already too many disagreements within suites between each run, never mind adding another model into the mix.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Think we need to distinguish two things that could be against cold  tonight, the atlantic getting in - and a revert to normal westerly zonal sourced weather, and the easterly collapsing.  I would say the chance of the former in the next two weeks will be close to zero.  But re the latter there is a 50:50 chance of the proper cold prospects being prolonged, v a UK high or thereabouts.  

    I think the clusters will be interesting today...

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM mean and spread at T240, there’s an awful lot of uncertainty here, and the red line I’ve drawn on the spread plot suggests, if I’ve read it right, a fairly modest but significant chance of maintaining the easterly flow.  The fact that there is some uncertainty here is important even though it is not massive.  Clusters will no doubt firm this up:

    A89F612C-E1D6-45EE-A66D-9AF4ABA6CF62.thumb.png.66892429bb2f200a36474d9e7ac7f712.png4FA756CF-C099-4B5A-A3E8-33F321B724D4.thumb.jpeg.2fd83ba0f08e0f7958fbd36aa124e7a8.jpeg

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    55 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Believe it or not Chris there now running a second ECM op . Bit like the gfs and gfs para 👍

    Thanks for the info Ice, I was just doing the same thing with Snowmans 192 post....thinking what is this madness!

    How that passed me by im not sure lol. 

    Maybe a good idea for folks to post which model variation it is from now on. 

    Two GFS and two ECM runs .....

    Im re-naming them both the 'shadow' runs. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    2 ECM runs - I’m already spending too much time in here without more runs to discuss!

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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