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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Several posts moved over to here

    Keep to model discussion only folks. 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Hi Gang, I haven’t really had time to look at the models so far today but I noticed the GEFS 6z mean is still trending towards a potential anticyclonic early March?.. which I’m sure would feel quite pleasant given the increasing strength of the sun and longer days to enjoy it!😉 ☀️ 
    373F7802-0929-4317-BE66-70FAAE2A2C1C.thumb.png.82df5f62bd4a773b581d5218dae5ae21.pngC643214B-DFA1-49CD-B766-7DA6CA9D8394.thumb.png.920197b318de8f90cf10d3d4500ff6f4.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    Understandably i see no early doors comment on the 12z runs after viewing them.

    It's difficult to feel inspired to rush to the keyboard if you prefer cold or indeed an early taste of Spring. Anyone that has a likeness for Atlantic driven weather though will be happy with the current outlook.

    t144

    gfseu-0-144.thumb.png.44c4a5d894d00fbe71c9fcbbf6bc2211.pngUE144-21.thumb.gif.25366e38a543452a5ac13d06211acd60.gif

    There will be quite a lot of rain over the coming days with a number of frontal systems coming in.The weekend looks quite wet for many, in particular away from the far se when we see a wriggling front develop as the colder air from the west has a mini battle with the euro ridging bringing up warm air from the south.


    583106008_fax84s(2).thumb.gif.58fa56847f27c50dd2d8a42475238407.giffax120s.thumb.gif.3f5d3760aaa108bae47393760f525445.gif

    It continues to look pretty mobile and unsettled into next week on the latest gfs run with euro high struggling to gain any ridging at least out to day 10.

    I think i will be happy with a dry few days soon,cold or mild,but it looks like patience will be needed for that.

     

    Edited by phil nw.
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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    I think some kind of cold spell is a reasonable shout for early March, it's most likely to come in the form of an Atlantic ridge, which allows a Northerly in, it will have to be very potent to deliver a widespread snow event at this time of year.

    la Nina unexpectedly strengthened last week, back into the moderate category which probably helped to kill our cold spell.

    GFS para attached as an example.

    gfsnh-0-312 (3).png

    gfsnh-1-312.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Yes its fi but this is a big improvement from the para...one more shot come on my son,dont let us down.

    I think we need another displacement of the Canada/Greenland vortex.

    gfsnh-0-324.png

    gfsnh-1-324.png

    Edited by MATTWOLVES
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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    At last we have something interesting to look at on both the GFS

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    22 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    I think some kind of cold spell is a reasonable shout for early March, it's most likely to come in the form of an Atlantic ridge, which allows a Northerly in, it will have to be very potent to deliver a widespread snow event at this time of year.

    Yes, otherwise anyone south of the Midlands is unlikely to see snow.

    @MATTWOLVESthe roller coaster is proving to be a real nightmare, but have not given up hope just yet!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
    25 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    Come on guys get with me,I'm here blowing on my device and desperately trying to get these Heights further North...come on dam you 🤣

    @phil nw. Im most definitely fighting this cold chase alone...its so lonely 😉

    gfsnh-0-318.png

    It.s a bit grim early on Matt that's for sure.I wish i could highlight something more appealing for coldies.Still later on there's that ridging again which would bring frosty nights and some pleasant days. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    9 minutes ago, Don said:

    Yes, otherwise anyone south of the Midlands is unlikely to see snow.

    It did go on to morph into an Easterly later on, but let's try and focus on getting an Atlantic ridge up within  the next 7-10 days first.

    There was an interesting cluster from the 06z gefs earlier, hopefully it's not just the GFS leading us up the garden path.

    Edited by Battleground Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    30 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    I think some kind of cold spell is a reasonable shout for early March, it's most likely to come in the form of an Atlantic ridge, which allows a Northerly in, it will have to be very potent to deliver a widespread snow event at this time of year.

    la Nina unexpectedly strengthened last week, back into the moderate category which probably helped to kill our cold spell.

    GFS para attached as an example.

    gfsnh-0-312 (3).png

    gfsnh-1-312.png

    First get it within 240 hrs, with solid support from GEFS, EC and EPS. So far, it's lacking in that regard.

    Chasing these cold charts at 300h is more fun in November-January than it is in this 2nd half of February IMO.
    I'd like to see one more cold spell, not quite ready for spring yet, but only if it's a proper one.
    In March, that should be with loads of snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    First get it within 240 hrs, with solid support from GEFS, EC and EPS. So far, it's lacking in that regard.

    Chasing these cold charts at 300h is more fun in November-January than it is in this 2nd half of February IMO.
    I'd like to see one more cold spell, not quite ready for spring yet, but only if it's a proper one.
    In March, that should be with loads of snow.

     Chasing cold charts is fun all year round if you ask me,and even more fun when some of the pros are saying its unlikely! 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

     Chasing cold charts is fun all year round if you ask me,and even more fun when some of the pros are saying its unlikely! 😉

    It's fun when there really seems to be something "brewing", even if it's in FI, but charts that show cold, but never come one day closer: mehh.

    Let's see where this goes. I give King Winter 2-3 weeks more to come up with something, after that my focus switches to Summer mode. "Hot Summer Days" instead of "Cold Winter Nights".

     

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    gfs-0-336.png?12?12GFS 12z @ 336hrs

    It would only need that high to form 100 miles further West and we would be in the game for a potent Northerly to start March. 

    gfs-1-336.png?12?12

    Plenty of cold air still in the vicinity of the British Isles on March 3rd

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    Posted
  • Location: Abergavenny
  • Location: Abergavenny

    I’m late to the 12z today, but both the GFS Op and Para are offering something for Coldies in FI. Can it hold on for more than one run this time?

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL

    Judah Cohen tweeting that Greenland Blocking looking favourable for early March and severe wintry weather possible for Europe 

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    Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Just for info, the GFS V16 update is due to go live on March 17th 🙂

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    11 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

    Judah Cohen tweeting that Greenland Blocking looking favourable for early March and severe wintry weather possible for Europe 

    Really? That had completely passed me by. 

    Diolch. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
    12 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Really? That had completely passed me by. 

    Diolch. 

    Yes Griff....but of a surprise ...there’s always hope 🙏

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    ECM looking very mild on Sunday!

    These mild conditions are always being pushed back a day or two......:)

    A7F2720B-F461-4D2B-AE36-DA4E6A0564EB.thumb.png.b7b320a24dc34b0d5a182f14835fb8b5.png

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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