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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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Posted
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
  • Location: Whitefield, Manchester @ 100m
    39 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    This can't be right? Look at those dewpoints for Saturday on GFS 12z

    image.thumb.png.1607e18bb5aaf72ea1ad5ae9f33b0f63.png

    Hopefully we'll be like Norway. Our rain often instantly turns to snow when it reaches there.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Are we following the ECM or the... 

    ECMWF// - CEP//

    Beginning of parallel runs for Cycle 47r2. Parallel run will become operationnal in May 2021.

     

    😜🤪

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    10 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Are we following the ECM or the... 

    ECMWF// - CEP//

    Beginning of parallel runs for Cycle 47r2. Parallel run will become operationnal in May 2021.

     

    😜🤪

    Oh no 🤦‍♂️ it’s going to be a full time job checking all these models soon! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0&para=1

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, Battleground Snow said:

    ECM nearer GFS at 96 than Ukmo

    ECH1-96 (5).gif

    Yup looks good there !!!but we know its gona bulldoze east somehow in the next frame!!lol!!

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    14 minutes ago, DogToffee said:

    Judging by the fax charts, it could well be battleground snow all Sunday up the spine of Britain. Certainly would be interesting, but this coldy's hoping for the continental air to hold on for a week or three yet.
    image.thumb.png.fe7ba1be743dd19d8d99f708ac1dcbc1.png

    Could well be rain if these uppers are correct. 528 line is well east as well

    E86F472E-7668-419C-92DB-7DF941946746.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    ECM nearer GFS at 96 than Ukmo

    ECH1-96 (5).gif

     

    4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Oh no 🤦‍♂️ it’s going to be a full time job checking all these models soon! http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=3&type=0&archive=0&para=1

     

    The previously useful compare models at a specific time frame, now resembles a chessboard of possibilities and outcomes... 

    ECM a tad more progressive than GFS... 

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

    120 not great

     

    image.thumb.png.bc8fc93844a83f466392e30407f65617.png

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
    7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Could well be rain if these uppers are correct. 528 line is well east as well

    E86F472E-7668-419C-92DB-7DF941946746.png

    You can’t really use ecm uppers to argue against an outcome on a Met Office fax chart. 

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire

    All over, see you next year according to ecm
    Thankfully I think GFS has this nailed. 

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    10 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Could well be rain if these uppers are correct. 528 line is well east as well

    E86F472E-7668-419C-92DB-7DF941946746.png

    There would still be a lot of snow across the high ground of Northern England and Scotland, despite 850 temps being not looking rosy. The 850 - 1000hPa thicknesses are low enough for snow above 200m.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    4 minutes ago, Drifter said:

    You can’t really use ecm uppers to argue against an outcome on a Met Office fax chart. 

    Not arguing against it, it’s just we can’t see the uppers or the precip type on the fax so just filling in the blanks..They will usually  use a blend of UKMO & ECM and both models show positive uppers. Just looking at this fax  - As the 528 dam line is east and it’s a warm front with air from the south is it not fair to assume this chart is showing us rain or freezing rain? 

    6378A97D-113F-42C1-8BF8-ADF6B43FF1D0.gif

    800FDDC8-054E-4D95-9EFF-3AA4762571E5.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    ECM // is better at day 7 than the op . Still obviously not great 

    50BB990E-221D-4A6E-B76C-7AB7E4659E0B.png

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    3 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

    NetWx shows the cold winning out, The fronts never really cross the UK. Here's next Wednesdays midday charts.

    1644132231_viewimage-2021-02-10T183336_041.thumb.png.f11a3b8df15a0c777da6d2f3a6a981c8.png2031419470_viewimage-2021-02-10T183349_958.thumb.png.d6f0764eca0474c20389d9432744ace2.png1991260650_viewimage-2021-02-10T183449_610.thumb.png.b7bc2f9d942930c7f4d915154659eba7.png

     

    Would say that’s fairly average? What are the 2m air temps as those are wind chill? Average Uppers this time are year in London are around -2c and that’s shows 0c or -1c ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    This still aint done in my opinion!!!ecm looks interesting at 168 hours!!!very gfs like👀

     

    3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Ecm has current cold spell ending sunday!!gfs tuesday!!!!

    So we're basically all agreed the GFSP has got this sorted? 😉 

    In all seriousness GEM has shifted a little, so maybe tomorrow.... 

    gfsnh-1-168.png

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Take your pick at T192 no 1 or no 2 

    B0610E0F-63CC-49B2-9705-721DD6EF856D.png

    234AA494-EF87-47C1-ABE0-34D8D758ACE3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    ECM // is better at day 7 than the op . Still obviously not great 

    50BB990E-221D-4A6E-B76C-7AB7E4659E0B.png

    The Euros are sniffing out a cold/continental/easterly type scenario IMO. Both UKMO and ECM at 144 looking interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Well we haven't seen much of this during the winter!

    Screenshot_20210210-184034.thumb.png.c8939a50fc0aae82b80e3f7935c207cc.png

    Temps well into double figures I'd expect.

    GFS P needs to have a good chat with ECM as they're clearly not on speaking terms!

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    ECM has some snow in the far west Sat then it’s plain rain for all on Sunday although some of the east may stay dry 😏

    D1A63344-C6A5-4B54-B758-78E63557EBC1.jpeg

    0F1FACA7-36FC-48AE-BC2A-BB8ED2904F75.jpeg

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    • Paul locked and unpinned this topic
    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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    This topic is now closed to further replies.
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