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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Pity its a big outlier because if it wasn't, we would be into territory of looking at these charts again.

    https://images.meteociel.fr/im/6857/gfseuw-16-360_gtb9.png

     

    Nah, rubbish run for the south. Bring on the Bartlett! 😆😆

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    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    😳 Thought is clicked on the CFS by mistake when I saw this 😍🤞

    2DE29BEC-DE9C-40E0-8A2A-9CF57B252E10.png

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    Posted
  • Location: lowestoft
  • Location: lowestoft

    Just look at all the very deep cold to our north east, if we can get a good ridge up to our North West we will be looking at March 2018 all over again.

    bring it on and lets finish this winter in style

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    spacer.pngGFS 6z for first day of Spring !!!

    Cant rule out a cold start to March ! ....one to keep an eye on

    Edited by Jeremy Shockey
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    Posted
  • Location: Nottingham
  • Location: Nottingham

    It’s clear there is some potential for the turn of the month . There’s a lot of cold air lurking to the north east which should keep things interesting over the next few weeks as it’s likely , in my opinion, to try and have a final swipe at us - I say this simply due to the patterns of the last couple of months 

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    Posted
  • Location: lowestoft
  • Location: lowestoft

    Hopefully looking at the way the models are shaping up, we could be seeing more scenes like this, this was last weekend just down the road from me at Southwold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
    4 minutes ago, Timbo said:

    Hopefully looking at the way the models are shaping up, we could be seeing more scenes like this, this was last weekend just down the road from me at Southwold.

    Snow80221.MOV

    Wow! Thanks for sharing - The extremes in this country are quite something, given how small an island we are! Still not seen one proper flake of snow this winter... 

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    Posted
  • Location: lowestoft
  • Location: lowestoft
    1 minute ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

    Wow! Thanks for sharing - The extremes in this country are quite something, given how small an island we are! Still not seen one proper flake of snow this winter... 

    Yes was Quiet amazing, it snowed every day from Sunday till Friday, we still have drifts 5ft plus on the back roads.

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    A few posts are starting to drift off topic, Just Model Discussion please in here. Use the winter thread for general chat.

    Thanks all.

    Edited by Polar Maritime
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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Theres nothing on these charts that suggests any proper cold in the next two weeks. A pretty moderate mean upper Southwesterly across the UK with high pressure dominant, slightly to our near East.

    That looks mild and unsettled to me, with the usual NW/SE divide, the SE getting the milder, sunnier, drier conditions.

    The only point about these is that their own confidence rating is below average, 2/5 , therefore might be "out", but IF these charts verify then they are a long way off anything cold.

     

    814day.03tues.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

    Theres nothing on these charts that suggests any proper cold in the next two weeks. A pretty moderate mean upper Southwesterly across the UK with high pressure dominant, slightly to our near East.

    That looks mild and unsettled to me, with the usual NW/SE divide, the SE getting the milder, sunnier, drier conditions.

    The only point about these is that their own confidence rating is below average, 2/5 , therefore might be "out", but IF these charts verify then they are a long way off anything cold.

     

    814day.03tues.gif

    How did those Noaa charts perform with the last Estly mushy? I'm not sure what they were saying prior to the event?

    Amazing GFS and again its little brother throws out a completely different scenario at the same timeframe..OK its beyond day 10 so differences will occur..but those kind of differences from the same model stable!! I'm not so sure.

    gfs-0-318 (1).png

    gfs-0-324.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Pity its a big outlier because if it wasn't, we would be into territory of looking at these charts again.

    https://images.meteociel.fr/im/6857/gfseuw-16-360_gtb9.png

     

    Doesn’t look like an outlier to me (re the temps anyway) or course it could well be a synoptic outlier 🤔 Hood to see a steady increase in the stellar FI runs keeping the dream alive for one last cold shot ..

    6ACED7EE-4D52-4F8D-966B-6795FE753B80.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    45 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    Theres nothing on these charts that suggests any proper cold in the next two weeks. A pretty moderate mean upper Southwesterly across the UK with high pressure dominant, slightly to our near East.

    That looks mild and unsettled to me, with the usual NW/SE divide, the SE getting the milder, sunnier, drier conditions.

    The only point about these is that their own confidence rating is below average, 2/5 , therefore might be "out", but IF these charts verify then they are a long way off anything cold.

     

    814day.03tues.gif

    Day 11 is too early for the current nwp to show anything for coldies rob

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    42 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    The chase is still on...otherwise my head will fall off...I hate that transition period of Winter to Spring...bring me one last shot at this before Spring rears its head!

    Indeed Matt, I do not want to have to open the spring roller coaster just yet!  Meanwhile, the technical team continue to work on the winter roller coaster and I hope to have an update this evening! 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    After looking at the previous 4 GFS runs, which one of these beasterlies would you like to take then as our late February/early March offering then?

    15/02/2021 12z GFS

    Member 10     +384 hours     850hpa temp -17.1

    image.thumb.png.21e93679d99e9c01f90ea15a4e930543.pngimage.thumb.png.7734937c53460dad7611e13f872662d7.pngimage.thumb.png.175d21ce6e165b9a1ac91243d98ff682.png

    15/02/2021 18z GFS

    Member 30     +330 hours     850hpa temp -18.0

    image.thumb.png.74213e9e200746b278d51eb802cd58e1.pngimage.thumb.png.00140f5746698097cd424284b3425cc3.pngimage.thumb.png.6e4138183d235e4c09f74d74414a552d.png

    16/02/2021 00z GFS

    Member 18     +384 hours     850hpa temp -14.2

    image.thumb.png.64fce1a64795404503f516b4ca24c2e9.pngimage.thumb.png.0b2f7d1df73cc8674c74f097afbb3583.pngimage.thumb.png.503fc83e1bd9b866a71b23240cae65f5.png

    16/02/2021 06z GFS

    Member 8     +360 hours     850hpa temp -14.9

    image.thumb.png.051c99a3fba07b745bdb2a24d3507b57.pngimage.thumb.png.69de82f23ae78b2660fd701d4e827444.pngimage.thumb.png.da4d4f3cc12b56331febfced3d69cfe0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    1 hour ago, That ECM said:

    Definitely getting to the end of the season when this shows up and hardly a page of posts🤣 

    3BD9B40B-5FD2-4A84-9621-D00F16C8C5A5.png

    Yes those who didn't do well snow-wise so far probably a bit jaded with it all. But thats a cracking chart for early march. Let see what unfolds.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    How did those Noaa charts perform with the last Estly mushy? I'm not sure what they were saying prior to the event?

     


    This is the 6-10 day chart issued Feb 1st .... on the back of this i blogged that cold was on the way , which indeed it was. Subsequent runs though didnt develop the cold any further and slowly backed off, which is why the cold spell didnt last very long, unlike 3 years agos BFTE. see chart below... dunno how to insert...lol



     

    56 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Day 11 is too early for the current nwp to show anything for coldies rob

    Not sure why, emerging trends are usually picked up by these charts in that timeframe. For anything cold to emerge, these charts would need to do a 180 degree u turn. Now that is possible, on very rare occassions they have been known to completely flip...

    IMHO based on these charts, theres not much chance of cold before the end of this Month, certainly not in the next ten days, probably 12. Im not ruling out a cold spell in March though, as per current GFS FI charts. But for them to get any credence the NOAA anomaly charts would need to change in order to  support that. Until/unless they do, i for one will not be getting any hopes up (no matter what FI is showing).

    coldonway.gif

    Edited by mushymanrob
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    watch this be Evert

    h850t850eu.png

    What's that to do with  ladies' tennis!😁

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    • Paul locked and unpinned this topic
    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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