Model output discussion 10/02/21

[minus10]

Massive anticyclone stretching all the way from Scandinavia through Europe to the Azores and over Med to Red Sea area on GFS. Dont think I have seen such a large one like this for some time. It only it could orientate right for us we could tap into that very cold air to the east....

[Don]

47 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Yep I noticed that in GFS 12z in deep FI.... phenomenal cold air in NH for early March.

A shame the UK is in the mildest air until the end of the month on those charts.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

True but the fact the air is so warm to the south is a concern and a likely result of our warming world.  It's only a matter of time before 40C is breached in the UK and I would say within 10 years, maybe even 5?!

I'm looking for some signs from the ens to perhaps break the pattern...Anything to shift thise Heights to a favourable place!! Keep in mind this year we don't seem to be suffering with a lack of cold pooling...All we need is that magic bullet to give thise Heights a kick up the backside..Dynamite perhaps  

[Singularity]

  

Studying these, I don't get a great sense of confidence in the path forward... far from it.

GFS is being very persistent with the cut-off low west of the Mediterranean (unusual placement!) and associated inflation of a big high over western Europe, but GFS(P) has delayed that process on its latest run - in fact whizzing that vigorous low straight east across the middle of the UK Sun-Mon! - while UKMO continues to show little interest in cutting off the low so far west and has the Atlantic trough flatter with the low out west potentially on a collision course with southern England.

Considering that the Euro high development is a response to the Atlantic trough behaving in a certain way - as there's no tropical or stratospheric forcing in its favour - I'd be wary of assuming that it will be much of a player in the UK's weather next week. As much as I hate to say that having admired some almost May-like predictions of high teens maxima coupled with sunny skies!

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

Considering that the Euro high development is a response to the Atlantic trough behaving in a certain way - as there's no tropical or stratospheric forcing in its favour - I'd be wary of assuming that it will be much of a player in the UK's weather next week. As much as I hate to say that having admired some almost May-like predictions of high teens maxima coupled with sunny skies!

Interesting you say that, as I mentioned the same thing yesterday. Would not be surprised (in fact I'm actively expecting) a flip to cold into March.

[KTtom]

17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Interesting you say that, as I mentioned the same thing yesterday. Would not be surprised (in fact I'm actively expecting) a flip to cold into March.

Despite the poor outlook regarding cold, ive no doubt there will be at least one more wintry outbreak, it doesnt take long for the models to flip, just look at the last week, not even the pro's just 5 days ago, and i'm talking in Exeter would have thought or predicted that 14 degrees would be achieved today in the south east where just a few days ago it was looking unlikely to get above zero. 

Edited February 15, 2021 by KTtom

[Matt H]

If there is a late season cold spell, I hope it comes in the form of p10 as this would certainly be an impressive way to end the winter.

[mb018538]

ECM 12z still showing temps around 15/16c midday Sunday....will likely be 1-2c higher by peak at 3pm, so 17-18c on the cards. Staying mild in the SE Monday, but much cooler in the NW by then. Monday midday 5-6c NW, 14c SE.

[Alexis]

It's that time of year when if there is no cold in the models you could declare winter is over and have a 50% chance of being right sadly!

[kold weather]

47 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Interesting you say that, as I mentioned the same thing yesterday. Would not be surprised (in fact I'm actively expecting) a flip to cold into March.

Yeah I lalso wouldn't be too surprised at that either, I do think we may well get a well above normal period coming up which at this time of year is probably far enough into the year that it could feel somewhat nice out there should we get a decent push from the south.

This weekend probably not quite high enough to feel warm, especially given cloud cover and rain about as well. But its a hint of what is to come for sure as we move through to Spring. 16-17c seems possible IF the front stays west enough like the ECM suggests.

 

Edited February 15, 2021 by kold weather

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GFS / ECM 12z ops...there may be an opportunity or 2...or 3 to dust off the BBQ in late Feb?..not often can that be said, although if memory serves me right, didn’t last Feb have an early heatwave?

 

[feb1991blizzard]

51 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Interesting you say that, as I mentioned the same thing yesterday. Would not be surprised (in fact I'm actively expecting) a flip to cold into March.

There's hints of it on the 12 ECM deterministic runs, this the pick of the 2, and it isn't a mile away from the GEFS average either, problem is not a very big signal for a proper Greeny high (yet) so might just be a cold spell as opposed to a very cold spell.

 

[stodge]

Evening all

So the February 2021 cold spell moves into history and more "usual" late winter fare has taken over. Last night, the models seemed broadly agreed on an initial Atlantic bias this week but increasing heights over Europe bringing an even milder spell next week but from there possibilities of the HP shifting north back towards or even north of the British Isles with hints (no more) of a possible return of colder air but all very speculative at this stage.

T+120 takes us to Saturday 20th, T+192 to Tuesday 23rd, T+240 to the 25th, T+312 to the 28th and T+384 to March 3rd.

Charts as usual from GEM, GFS OP, GFS Parallel and ECM

T+120:

  

T+192:

T+240:

A bit more divergence in the modelling this evening. GEM keeps more of an Atlantic influence throughout and it gets quite unsettled over northern and western Britain. GFS OP builds ressure to both the south east and south west and ends with a core of heights just to the north of the British Isles propped up by a small cut off LP to the NE of the Azores. That feature  is much further south on both Parallel and ECM with the latter building a ridge north west toward Iceland and Greenland at T+240. By then, the Atlantic has slowed across all the models and the PV not obviously a huge influence. Nothing for cold fans with winds between south and west over the next 10 days though GFS OP throws a light E'ly in at T+240.

Moving further ahead, are there signs of a possible pattern change into March?  Over to GFS OP, Parallel and Control:

T+312:

T+384:

Two different directions - OP and Control seem keen on building heights to the east and you could imagine some retrogression from that OP scenario. Parallel isn't that interested to be fair.

Conclusion: it's all looking very uneventful for the moment. GEM keeps things a bit less settled but generally, with heights to the south and east, it's mild and benign for most over the next 10 days. From there, hints of new heights to the east around the start of next month will doubtless tease and tantalise in the coming days but it's a regular signal in recent days and tonight GFS OP has the build of HP close to the British Isles as early as T+240. A "cold March surprise" ? You wouldn't rule it out. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Did somebody mention Bbqs in Feb!   put em away and instead prepare for a March shock.

[Mike Poole]

27 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Did somebody mention Bbqs in Feb!   put em away and instead prepare for a March shock.

Yes Matt, it seems to becoming more common for the really cold uppers to pool to our east and only get shunted this way in March, in SSW years (2013, 2018 and 2021).  What it highlights, again, for me, is the sheer difficulty of getting cold weather to our shores in winter proper.  It seems to take the whole winter for the mid latitudes of the NH to cool down even in the best scenarios, and we’ve been near miss on those this year several times.  

So we are once again looking to suck something off a continental cold pool at the end of winter.  I think something watered down from the charts you posted may well show in the 10 day frame by the end of the week, so to tie in with a turn of the month cold spell.  Won’t be 2018, meantime, I’m looking forward to some warmth even though i suspect it may be short lived.  

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 12z for 27th Feb

High pressure maybe building in at the end of the month.  Perhaps something dry , cool or cold for early March with frosts returning . Until then ....enjoy the mild spell over the next 10 days or so !

[bluearmy]

Ec 46 isn’t seeing any downwelling on the mean !  And the clusters no more than 20% on a greeny ridge early March 

I guess you could squint and see a chance first week March of a griceland height rise and sceuro trough 

Edited February 15, 2021 by bluearmy

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters in the long range T264-T360:

17 members each so take your pick, the coldie in me goes for cluster 3!  

[Don]

Technical issues have arisen with the roller coaster and may now be out of action for 9 months........ 

[chris55]

12z GFS spaghetti showing some renewed scatter from 22nd...some colder runs in there.

 

The recent change to this milder airmass has been a really nice change, but as ever, Im looking to continue the chase for snow right out till the end of March. Certainly a downward trend here. 

A return of -12 850s and a biting dry easterly isn't on my menu, but a day or two of snowfall most definitely would be, and that's more than achievable right through till late march.

[SqueakheartLW]

3 hours ago, Matt H said:

If there is a late season cold spell, I hope it comes in the form of p10 as this would certainly be an impressive way to end the winter.

Bring that on. -20 uppers almost into the UK in early March. Must be a record if that comes off. Even colder uppers than in the 2018 beast. Hope this is the trend setter

Edited February 15, 2021 by SqueakheartLW

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Ec 46 isn’t seeing any downwelling on the mean !  And the clusters no more than 20% on a greeny ridge early March 

I guess you could squint and see a chance first week March of a griceland height rise and sceuro trough 

Oh dear!  -  although that is off the 0z - 12z EPS 33% on a stonking cold snap!

[Don]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Oh dear!  -  although that is off the 0z - 12z EPS 33% on a stonking cold snap!

Blue's referring to the EC46, though?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Don said:

Blue's referring to the EC46, though?

Yes, i think up until around or just before beginning of W3 though they are representative of the EPS suite of the same run though.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Technical issues have arisen with the roller coaster and may now be out of action for 9 months........ 

Blimey Don your updates are getting as inconsistent as the mets..last night the roller coaster was in for repairs,24hrs later and its decommissioned for a year!! You won't get many visitors to your Theme Park this year mate..