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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Tonight's GFS pub run shows a 20c in N Wales. That would probably equate to 22/23c as the GFS underestimates the temperatures by a few degrees.

    EuOTORsXUAE4KH6.thumb.png.130f2d9504b8da4e05a335860c19c3ab.png

    I'm guessing Foehn is the culprit.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    49 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    30 years ago that would have been newsworthy. Nowadays, its just another 'mild' Feb day.

    I wouldn’t quite go that far yet but in another 30 years, most probably! 🤔

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    Posted
  • Location: Enfield , North London
  • Location: Enfield , North London
    3 hours ago, Don said:

    Another shocker of a run! 😬

    I’d be worried if that was for this Wednesday, no wait, it’s 10 days away.!! If that was showing BFTE 3 (at the same time span) we’d be dismissing it as FI...

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Here’s a few pretty amazing charts from the Gfs 0z operational, you would almost think it was well into spring rather than late in the meteorological winter!..I actually think somewhere in the south would hit the low 20’s Celsius in such a set-up!😜 🥵 

    2744587A-B2BA-4FB3-B8D9-1F1C088EB3D7.thumb.png.18e3fd34cb850089b86d34e61dcd12c7.pngA8D68F14-57D2-4AFC-84D9-68423F0F7A57.thumb.png.6ef3c89592c6b9e64214807d02fed49e.pngCFC515BB-361F-4029-AF60-AC2C7C1DC480.thumb.png.cd7f30bd82f3d22c2239a0f4bea21e37.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    ECM 0z, a week on Wednesday

    2mtemp_20210215_00_228.jpg

    Not warmest part of day. Widespread high teens across England and Wales low 20s in places would be only second occurrence in winter time still a bit off but potential there.

    59B8925E-82C6-4E30-8822-8B467007ECF7.thumb.png.1bbf01b3ff5b8f60afc20ce551b9c805.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    We seem to be marooned in a default tease mode !

    Better later outputs which subsequently implode after a few runs . The ECM today decides to go for pressure rises to the north towards day ten . 

    Whether this survives to see the light of day we’ll find out over the next few days .

    Before hand some exceptionally mild weather is being forecast with the Euro high aligned to bring that flow out of northern Africa .

    Its certainly looking like a month of extremes .

    Ext eps clusters Early March are evenly split cool mobile with a low grade mid Atlantic ridge, waxing and waning , Atlantic ridge to griceland and nw euro high drifting ne.  Given the expectation of an amplified pattern, that’s reasonable .....

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Well, if we can’t have another freeze, I’m certainly not going to cry about it!..both the ECM / GFS 0z ops show late winter warmth..nice! ☀️ 😉

    A7B1D5D2-0C00-4CB7-BDEA-40EA14453821.thumb.png.166f254ad2b5297de12fbbbc48cff454.png67282CCC-4F8C-43BD-AF08-A997E067D447.thumb.png.1da14a00660a613f9674b0e30818bffb.pngDE16DAA6-3D22-49E2-A89F-8B3FAE9A4247.thumb.png.2d86f72fad80af2a9ae35eadb05b0d45.pngCFC08D92-70F3-46C3-B4F8-0DDA1CBB9B8A.thumb.png.fc4f347e0b8894151855715d6231ca83.png5C62DB57-9CF6-4146-8F52-27C266E90B52.thumb.png.2639b5290fc60ad34df9d603badc9968.pngF4A710F8-7F4A-4153-ADFB-9253B04AB503.thumb.png.86aa401db718a2e24d8231ab83b654af.pngBCE5AA99-49DC-44A0-B9EA-7388F1C02551.thumb.png.ec065bbaf2f33fb107eb7e9180c3322d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    The current warm 850s on show for next weekend onwards, more often than not we struggle to see them in summer. You just know when you want them in a few months time they'll be nowhere to be seen 😂

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    Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk
  • Location: North Norfolk

    A month of extremes indeed! Quite astonishing really.  Pretty solid agreement for an extended period of very mild if not warm temperatures. I may be looking at this through short memory syndrome but it does feel like Spring arrives much earlier these days.  I’m all for Spring in Spring! Just a shame we couldn’t have held on to winter for a couple of weeks longer and especially for those who have missed out. March can deliver of course and there are signs of a cool down as we head into March but the signal for deep cold seems to be less at the moment, IMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands

    Must admit, would welcome some warmer weather and hopefully some bright or sunny weather at times to go with it. The models do seem to show the weather generally feeling quite a fair bit milder than it has been. 
     

    Examples from the 00Z runs of the GFS, GEM and ECMWF at 192 hours (in that order underneath)

    35026CD3-A7C2-482C-AB1F-C3532B3BF44B.thumb.png.9efa413c5d7e06d6470b8d3e5c686297.png6FE9BEFE-257A-496D-BE64-724F0F966740.thumb.png.437f398c2e664d0ae54e1be50cb47d49.pngFE25E192-F99E-47AF-96FE-0CE7F6CDF5B5.thumb.png.8d0e0651e68028682c28f897f900e567.png
     

    Few differences in some details. But essentially High Pressure and quite strong heights to our South-East over mainland Europe and Low Pressure to our West or North-West drawing in a mild flow from the South-West. Hopefully on the day itself (depending how close these come to verifying, as are quite far away) High Pressure can be close enough for many areas to see some dry weather at times. Especially if that’s what you want. Could provide a good taste of Spring 🌼

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    This looks utterly wonderful...>10C T850s . . . in February!😁👍

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex
    14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    This looks utterly wonderful...>10C T850s . . . in February!😁👍

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    If this happens it's going to pump loads of heat into the ground. Not good for any cold snap that follows, if there is one.

    Edited by Robbie Coldrain
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Weather Preferences: Deep Deep Snow causing chaos
  • Location: Banbury
    Just now, Tim Bland said:

    I wouldn’t pick away the winter clothes just yet. With high pressure over us there’s always a chance it could head north and there is still plenty of cold to tap into if it ends up in the right (or wrong if that’s your view) location...

    015B0F4A-2835-494E-ACAD-5D62086E9D02.png

    The warmth won't last too long looking at the GFS6z 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    Just now, Robbie Coldrain said:

    If this happens it's going to pump loads of heat into the ground. Not good for any cold snap that follows, if there is one.

    I wouldn’t worry about that. Ground temps are the product of months of weather not days. A few mild days won’t increase the soil temp much. More of a worry is the sun strength. It takes something very special to get a proper snowy spell in March and any snow thaws quickly if the sun comes out ..

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    Posted
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
  • Location: Ipswich - Suffolk
    4 minutes ago, Robbie Coldrain said:

    If this happens it's going to pump loads of heat into the ground. Not good for any cold snap that follows, if there is one.

    Depends whether we get frosts too, high pressure depending on orientation could yield high diurnal ranges so maybe not all bad, although current modelling does show even warmth during the night over the next ten days..

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    There’s very strong agreement of much milder weather but increasingly near end of month greater E/NE options are emerging give how cold the North Sea is any easterly will be cold. March possibly not favoured to start springlike.

    C4018257-76EC-4564-AAA8-C9A267B99CB6.thumb.png.25dd1f0b1c5aad5368490cdd786e0369.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk

    Not sure if this is really the case, but during late February into March especially, I can always remember a warm pleasant week followed by a sharp cold snap. 

    I always remember some guy, shirt off washing his car in the warm March sun. A few weeks later you guessed it, that car was covered in snow 😂

    I still feel a very mild spell in late February/March is more often than not a sign a cold snap is just around the corner. Seen it happen many times before!

    Anyway sorry for straying off topic!!

    Edited by NewEra21
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    2 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

    Not sure if this is really the case, but during late February into March especially, I can always remember a warm pleasant week followed be a sharp cold snap. 

    I always remember some guy, shirt off washing his car in the warm March sun. A few weeks later you guessed it, that car was covered in snow 😂

    I still feel a very mild spell in late February/March is more often than not a sign a cold snap is just around the corner. Seen it happen many times before!

    Anyway sorry for straying off topic!!

    I've definitely seen more white Easters than Christmases but with the exception of 2013 snow in March usually disappears quickly.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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