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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    The mean eps having none of the day 10 tease from the op and para.  Strong Euro high well into the extended.

    Can the ops flip the mean in the next few days though?

    i have noticed this recently with the gefs ens when they were all showing blowtorch temps but now there is some colder dips in the 850's now.

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    Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
    23 minutes ago, Chasbrown said:

    I have seen a lot of seagulls around here recently too. Not sure what that indicates lol. 

    Put  it in the Scottish thread about tens of thousands of gulls roosting in neighbouring fields  about three weeks ago just at the point where the Shetland sea inlet froze over in -7c temperatures at sea level . They along with our sheep are good forecasters. The sheep took to herding next to wood at nights instead of the middle of the   field  four days ago just before all the gales and drifting snow of the last three days. Gulls move away from bad weather( wind or cold) and sheep I feel sense changes in air pressure

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Can the ops flip the mean in the next few days though?

    i have noticed this recently with the gefs ens when they were all showing blowtorch temps but now there is some colder dips in the 850's now.

    Yes ensemble suites can flip just like the det runs.  They do tend to be a little more stable though!

    Edited by mulzy
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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    image.thumb.png.4c5209c624251933c510ea7e921a27ab.png image.thumb.png.e0420db631840b9ac5cc2b730f4729ab.png

    The JMA run sure is a head-turner. Like UKMO it really keeps the ridge to our east suppressed south - but unlike that run it manages to cut-off the low by the Azores. This then joins forces with an amplifying trough to its northwest to rapidly build the Euro high to the northwest.

    Pretty classic route but with the models so varied in their solutions, we can't really have any confidence in any particular outcome at the moment.

    Weird that EPS are so focused on a continued Euro high in the extended. You'd think, given high AAM and modest polar vortex strength, that a good number would produce interruptions to the zonal flow that allow the high to head north a good way.

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    Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
  • Location: Chelmsford, Essex
    48 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Truly incredible ECM 12z op..more like summer than late winter, however, I saw a flock of seagulls flying over my house this afternoon which could be an omen of a sudden model flip in a few days time!😜

    7576429E-E58A-4331-99D3-1112D085DA76.thumb.png.8f75774f482f284a012aa8fe10bcd81a.pngAC229D0C-9094-4525-B842-FE2C9E58807C.thumb.png.30d70126d8c223c6a69db7adaf844f2a.png772BBEB9-214E-4FE9-A216-32FA581B8D09.thumb.png.f2cd34b65cd1162911af1308ad68af91.png

    Surely that'd be giving temperatures of close to 20C if not higher?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM clusters.  Until T168 strong temporary +NAO signal. Then T192-T240:

    74B96EE5-4913-4878-8751-BB553B9C9B2B.thumb.png.89de97b18ff9b0e699bf3c4218076a25.png

    High close to UK a theme, scandi block in cluster 2. T264-T360:

    82A9E745-D500-42E6-B822-DC101845FCB8.thumb.png.7752542f1517c504ae22553d777d09e4.png

    One things for sure, the Atlantic isn’t going to come raging in.  Link up shown to Scandi and Greenland on the highs - it looks clear to me there will be blocking high pressure by this point, but total uncertainty about where it goes!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    As an example of how models can flip - last Sunday evening's GFS 12Z for tomorrow compared with where we are tonight.

    image.thumb.png.8b30fb62589c707e9f756e96e15c5f44.pngimage.thumb.png.f4d12c51a306c783dfe8506aeefcaf33.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM clusters.  Until T168 strong +NAO signal. Then T192-T240:

    74B96EE5-4913-4878-8751-BB553B9C9B2B.thumb.png.89de97b18ff9b0e699bf3c4218076a25.png

    UK high a theme, scandi block in cluster 2. T264-T360:

    82A9E745-D500-42E6-B822-DC101845FCB8.thumb.png.7752542f1517c504ae22553d777d09e4.png

    One things for sure, the Atlantic isn’t going to come raging in.  Link up shown to Scandi and Greenland on the highs - it looks clear to me there will be blocking high pressure by this point, but total uncertainty about where it goes!

    They tick the red boxes for me Mike👍

    at least it would give us a holding pattern then hopefully the high will amplify further north,...my only qualm about those cluster's is getting lower height's into the Med but that's a long way to go so lets see if there is any legs on this over the coming days☺️

    C U for the 18z guys. 

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    typo
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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    1 hour ago, TEITS said:

    What im about to say my seem odd and isn't supported by any model/ensemble.

    As I said a few days ago a sudden change in the output could occur. The period in question begins at +72 to +120 as the modelling doesn't seem right to me. I still think the models could change towards a SE trajectory of the disturbances off the parent low, rather than NE. So instead of bathing in a S,ly, a sudden switch to an E,ly could occur at this very early timeframe.

    Could well be wrong but my instincts tell me otherwise.

     

    To add to this post, 12z for the UKMO from the past two days. Already a good nudge SE here.

    image.thumb.png.5e5361851740cc0e60dd19c0c18bbbcf.png  image.thumb.png.f019117368e0d0dc1ea8e6c5d1955398.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    51 minutes ago, stodge said:

    As an example of how models can flip - last Sunday evening's GFS 12Z for tomorrow compared with where we are tonight.

    image.thumb.png.8b30fb62589c707e9f756e96e15c5f44.pngimage.thumb.png.f4d12c51a306c783dfe8506aeefcaf33.png

    Again a model over estimating a cold block, under estimating the Atlantic

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    In terms of this week the models show no signs of changing direction towards a sudden turnaround to cold.That ship has sailed now with the Atlantic already in.

    A resurgent jet flow across the UK precludes any quick return to last week's unusual setup where the Atlantic was asleep and we had reverse zonality with an easterly flow across the Atlantic from Russia to Canada.

    Todays day 5 charts

    gfseu-5-120.thumb.png.438fee9f2eb6636d07a146d5357323c6.pngUE120-21.thumb.gif.f2a74b3aed0401c06663fee84fd05ba4.gif

    As much as i would like a quick switch over to another cold and snowy shot what the charts are actually showing is Atlantic lows and fronts moving across the UK through this week driven by a Greenland vortex.

    I think we have to look to week 2 now for any prospect of a change back to something colder with a chance of the ridging  northwards through the UK showing up then.The mean charts not showing enough latitude with that at the moment but there's is time for that to develop further as the Greenland trough recedes.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Croydon
  • Location: South Croydon
    3 hours ago, TEITS said:

    What im about to say my seem odd and isn't supported by any model/ensemble.

    As I said a few days ago a sudden change in the output could occur. The period in question begins at +72 to +120 as the modelling doesn't seem right to me. I still think the models could change towards a SE trajectory of the disturbances off the parent low, rather than NE. So instead of bathing in a S,ly, a sudden switch to an E,ly could occur at this very early timeframe.

    Could well be wrong but my instincts tell me otherwise.

     

    Are you talking about the low pressure features from Canada that the models show phasing with the main low in the mid Atlantic?  Or something else? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy days and long hot summer days with a big overnight thunderstorm
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK

    GFS 18z looking very mild tonight🤩

    459789537_GFS1.thumb.PNG.4b18807d04592d3fd1a955d62be3b45c.PNG1021443991_GFS2.thumb.PNG.9093d36cb45c734d04311cec34b1c312.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    23 minutes ago, Tamara said:

    Welcome to (actually from) Portugal🥰

    image.thumb.png.50bfa6fb9888c892002f93cc9ead3817.png

     

     

    30 years ago that would have been newsworthy. Nowadays, its just another 'mild' Feb day.

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    Posted
  • Location: Epsom
  • Location: Epsom
    8 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    30 years ago that would have been newsworthy. Nowadays, its just another 'mild' Feb day.

    I wonder how manys days in feb have reached 16/17c over the past 30 years. The only time i remember it being warm was feb 19 but im young so i can't remember alot before that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    5 minutes ago, Ols500 said:

    I wonder how manys days in feb have reached 16/17c over the past 30 years. The only time i remember it being warm was feb 19 but im young so i can't remember alot before that. 

    Probably the odd spot would have hit these temps for a short period due to a Foehn wind effect, but I don't recall seeing countrywide warmth like that that chart Tamara posted when I was growing up. Feb 2019 was just insane both in terms of warmth and longevity and for me its interesting to see how people these days see such events as no big deal. Personally, I thought it was very concerning as it wasn't even like the synoptics were exceptional or rare. In another 20 years though I suspect it will be fairly normal.  The warming trend marches on!!!!

    Anyway, enough on that. I'm still thinking of a shortish but punchy easterly (in terms of temp rather than snow) around the end of the month.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    9 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    Probably the odd spot would have hit these temps for a short period due to a Foehn wind effect, but I don't recall seeing countrywide warmth like that that chart Tamara posted when I was growing up. Feb 2019 was just insane both in terms of warmth and longevity and for me its interesting to see how people these days see such events as no big deal. Personally, I thought it was very concerning as it wasn't even like the synoptics were exceptional or rare. In another 20 years though I suspect it will be fairly normal.  The warming trend marches on!!!!

    Anyway, enough on that. I'm still thinking of a shortish but punchy easterly (in terms of temp rather than snow) around the end of the month.

     

    There has been a lot of warmth loitering to the S of the Med all winter...it was striking in January and it was pointed out. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
  • Location: Stoke on Trent
    22 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    Probably the odd spot would have hit these temps for a short period due to a Foehn wind effect, but I don't recall seeing countrywide warmth like that that chart Tamara posted when I was growing up. Feb 2019 was just insane both in terms of warmth and longevity and for me its interesting to see how people these days see such events as no big deal. Personally, I thought it was very concerning as it wasn't even like the synoptics were exceptional or rare. In another 20 years though I suspect it will be fairly normal.  The warming trend marches on!!!!

    Anyway, enough on that. I'm still thinking of a shortish but punchy easterly (in terms of temp rather than snow) around the end of the month.

     

    Let's hope it's wrong then. Suppose an Easterly is OK if you get Snow, but without the Snow and no minus Double digits I just don't get the excitement.

    Both the 2018 and this years weren't even that Cold.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    54 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

    GFS 18z looking very mild tonight🤩

    459789537_GFS1.thumb.PNG.4b18807d04592d3fd1a955d62be3b45c.PNG1021443991_GFS2.thumb.PNG.9093d36cb45c734d04311cec34b1c312.PNG

    Another shocker of a run! 😬

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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