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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    2 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    While the 12s roll out How's this for a late Winter blast from CFS..Dont forget its early March at that point and just as likely as warm Spring conditions.

    Now if this comes off I will most definitely be running naked through the Snow.

    cfs-0-486.png

    cfs-2-492.png

    tenor (3).gif

    Now that would be of interest if those cfs charts anywhere near verified. We have it in writing folks.

    I think that it would be entirely feasible for it to turn cold again at the end of the month as that would be in line with the pattern of extremes we experience in spring owing to increasing power of the sun and the cold still having bite.

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    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    High pressure going up here at 192 on both the ECM/ECM parra...😏👍

    ECH1-192.thumb.gif.55e5e5155c77967a9ae8ef2d48331466.gif1503836587_ECH1-192(1).thumb.gif.905e972c6c0eb1ef00d6dfc7ea8a786b.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambourne,Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Cambourne,Cambridgeshire
    2 minutes ago, Iceman2606 said:

    ECM 12z still looking very mild🔥😍🤩

    2109165258_ECM1.thumb.PNG.f817ce5e02977488a1217a271f3f0057.PNG1636206997_ECM2.thumb.PNG.ab0d66fa2e2de0b860e637afb2d3f935.PNG

    Looks record breaking to me. Its rare to get a deep southerly like that in summer let alone February, most mild spells in Feb are from SW flow foehn effect type mild.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Both at 216...

    ECH1-216.thumb.gif.3949054aa7b0f2a70886315b3cf02dd5.gif1975972358_ECH1-216(1).thumb.gif.f938077aaf508f544ffce821f0303a9a.gif

    certainly an upgrade in terms of more amplification than this morning's ECM runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    ECM is truly exceptional tonight....to get 3 days in a row of 850s in excess of 10c in late February must be a record or almost unheard of. Mid to upper teens quite likely, though probably not record breaking (2019 record was foehn effect).

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    FWIW the jma has more amp in the right place too.

    JN192-21.thumb.gif.a8515f4a62e2a1d18b4f0101eca50024.gif

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    At day ten...

    ECH1-240.thumb.gif.3a67115f6344114b224f19d9396cab92.gif1437035241_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.9c67bce28d6bce78fc3d56b080e56cb1.gif

    this is looking good folks😏

    This looks like a possible transition from the mild euro high to something more HLB based, of course we need the Atlantic to play ball.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Let the fun begin !

    Right folks last chance saloon time if you want a cold end to February .

    The ECM after several underwhelming runs shows a pretty typical way how you can progress from very mild southerlies to a possible colder east to ne flow .

    This run could have been better with more clearance between the upstream toughing and the shortwave ejected se towards the Azores , that would have allowed the ridge to nose more nw at day 7 .

    Then at day 8 you may not have phasing with the Azores shortwave and that troughing , this would have resulted in a sharper trough at that point and the downstream impact would be the high further north and west and the shortwave to the ne further sw.

    The easterly requires the jet to cut back sw towards the Low Countries so you need a more negative tilted upstream troughing .

    If we’re to see an easterly before the end of February that’s what we need to see .

     

    Next weekend looking lovely - almost warm! Then maybe hints of a return to cold. Time is running out though to squeeze it into calendar winter!

    Edited by Djdazzle
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Truly incredible ECM 12z op..more like summer than late winter, however, I saw a flock of seagulls flying over my house this afternoon which could be an omen of a sudden model flip in a few days time!😜

    7576429E-E58A-4331-99D3-1112D085DA76.thumb.png.8f75774f482f284a012aa8fe10bcd81a.pngAC229D0C-9094-4525-B842-FE2C9E58807C.thumb.png.30d70126d8c223c6a69db7adaf844f2a.png772BBEB9-214E-4FE9-A216-32FA581B8D09.thumb.png.f2cd34b65cd1162911af1308ad68af91.png85FB3B2A-3245-4B56-A9B7-F46BC4E97B71.thumb.png.837d769b154f85cf619d240bc9abef27.png1CC2EA62-61F1-4DCD-96AC-3C6153C01593.thumb.png.a80289aa06d161eb730d471293cada58.png9CF4859B-D615-4AAA-B7AC-2583A7F53492.thumb.png.6f5ded9c21c5bb47cda69a53aa571139.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Gatwick
  • Location: Gatwick
    6 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Truly incredible ECM 12z op..more like summer than late winter, however, I saw a flock of seagulls flying over my house this afternoon which could be an omen of a sudden model flip in a few days time!😜

    7576429E-E58A-4331-99D3-1112D085DA76.thumb.png.8f75774f482f284a012aa8fe10bcd81a.pngAC229D0C-9094-4525-B842-FE2C9E58807C.thumb.png.30d70126d8c223c6a69db7adaf844f2a.png772BBEB9-214E-4FE9-A216-32FA581B8D09.thumb.png.f2cd34b65cd1162911af1308ad68af91.png85FB3B2A-3245-4B56-A9B7-F46BC4E97B71.thumb.png.837d769b154f85cf619d240bc9abef27.png1CC2EA62-61F1-4DCD-96AC-3C6153C01593.thumb.png.a80289aa06d161eb730d471293cada58.png9CF4859B-D615-4AAA-B7AC-2583A7F53492.thumb.png.6f5ded9c21c5bb47cda69a53aa571139.png

    I have seen a lot of seagulls around here recently too. Not sure what that indicates lol. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    On the back of the ECM run, with good support from JMA as @Allseasons-si notes above, was just going to post that!!  What might be conspiring towards a cold end of the month?  Well the MJO seems to be checking out:

    99983422-8B29-4992-93D8-7501D55E66F9.thumb.gif.a4401882970545f5a90f9ebe44701bf7.gif

    Into the COD.  AAM?  Well that falls a bit possibly correlated to the MJO but then holds:

    9453FF6D-E777-489E-A258-907FBE7E7F4B.thumb.png.1a857a0b045d645a6630190983e28d77.png

    That leaves us with the strat, downwelling wave again, NAM plot suggests this, highlighted in black the one responsible for this weeks cold, in green the weaker one forecast (maybe) in a week or two’s time:

    FD646EF3-372C-42D9-9CF1-F10742FA5D4B.thumb.jpeg.72eff128ed55b3d1405aead221bcaed7.jpeg

    I wonder if a weaker event might lead to more chances for snow, battleground or marginal?  We will see... 

    In the meantime, I will enjoy the milder weather for a while!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM T240, not to worry much about details, but more amplification and a scandi high:

    346D9950-6158-48B3-9519-1CA09335EBFB.thumb.png.e8b5f7b6bc2eedd300157e4be2980129.png

    Lot’s more to do wrt orientation etc, but it is my view supportive of a growing trend for a cold spell at the turn of the month.

    The dismantled PV is in no hurry to return to a robust state, hence the type of output shown by ECM at 240hr and longer term by GFS today should not be dismissed. The atlantic looks as if it is coming unstuck again against heights to our south and east, as it has for much of the winter. A holding pattern for a week or so, and then warm air advection to our west and cold air advection to our east, heights are pulled through the UK and northwards - back door cold... quiet atlantic to end the month I wonder?

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    The mean eps having none of the day 10 tease from the op and para.  Strong Euro high well into the extended.

    Edited by mulzy
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    The mean eps having none of the day 10 tease from the op and para.  Strong Euro high well into the extended.

    Anything even approaching decent by D15?

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Anything even approaching decent by D15?

    No real change - we just the whole pattern a thousand miles further north!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, mulzy said:

    No real change - we just the whole pattern a thousand miles further north!

    And West by a bit.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    No real change - we just the whole pattern a thousand miles further north!

    Mulzy. am I right in thinkinging that the day before the ecm bought into the gfs milder outlook that we are now entering that the eps and mean were keeping us in the freezer for the foreseeable.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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