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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
    25 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    If we can mantain a southerly or southeasterly ahead of mondays front then it should be all snow on monday for england at least!!!even 850s of 0 will be enough with cold surface air in place and drier continental winds!!!

    I'm starting to wonder if the Front will get in at all, I mean it was first shown as tomorrow , then Fri , then Sat , this morning Sunday and now Monday ... With High pressure over us now and the Cold block in place it may just keep getting pushed back.

    Edited by BlackburnChris
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

    I'm starting to wonder if the Front will get in at all, I mean it was first shown as tomorrow , then Fri , then Sat , this morning Sunday and now Monday ... With High pressure over us now and the Cold block in place it may just keep getting pushed back.

    We got colder air pushing back in thursday into friday for a time as well from the continent!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    52 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    We really need a big shot of WWA from this point to get back to cold

    GFSOPEU12_156_2.thumb.png.0137a9b91dbb94e722bf1290998c72eb.png

    1 - Look at that deep cold pool we could end up with if things go as I have shown. Cold air follows yellow arrows until it gets to UK

    2 - Warm air waiting down to the south pushes in the direction of the red arrow and forces the high back north again opening the gates to that deep cold which should have pushed into eastern Europe by the time this happens

    I guess that is the hope for cold lovers. However, what meteorological parameter is going to cause those two things to occur?

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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
    2 minutes ago, Garthvader said:

    Seems to be picking up more on the radar from Scarborough heading padt Bradford this way could be a better evening 🤞

    As The High Pressure builds North it is likely to kill off the precipitation ... by 9pm GFS has nothing left .. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
    1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

    I guess that is the hope for cold lovers. However, what meteorological parameter is going to cause those two things to occur?

    I've looked through the whole of my atmoshperics book and found nothing, didn't expect to Netweather is the place where we expect 1% chances to come off. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    2 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

    As The High Pressure builds North it is likely to kill off the precipitation ... by 9pm GFS has nothing left .. 

     

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    Which is why we got a severely cold night ahead!!!🥶

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    Posted
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
  • Location: Wigan,North west England 38m asl
    5 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

    As The High Pressure builds North it is likely to kill off the precipitation ... by 9pm GFS has nothing left .. 

     

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    Oh lovely.....thanks pal 🤦🏻‍♂️

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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL

    Sorry used wrong chart .. 

    Edited by BlackburnChris
    wrong chart
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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    Just now, BlackburnChris said:

    GFS above Freezing for your area .. I think it will be Colder  than that ...

     

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    Seems that Mild air makes a landing in the Far South west for a vacation 

    That's us out of the game 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    11 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    I guess that is the hope for cold lovers. However, what meteorological parameter is going to cause those two things to occur?

    The trough to be elongated neutrally tilted and the shortwave to not be there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
    Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

    Seems that Mild air makes a landing in the Far South west for a vacation 

    That's us out of the game 

    used wrong chart mate sorry ...... your ok tonight ....spacer.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    1 minute ago, BlackburnChris said:

    used wrong chart mate sorry ...... your ok tonight ....spacer.png

    That's okay I was referring to Next week in regards to the cold air still being around 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    This can't be right? Look at those dewpoints for Saturday on GFS 12z

    image.thumb.png.1607e18bb5aaf72ea1ad5ae9f33b0f63.png

    They are as right as can be lol!!amazing dew point projections!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    Charts struggling with any possible break down of this embedded cold,going

    to be very interesting will the Atlantic come in with a roar or just fizzle out.

    Northern blocking orientation and strength is going to give some headache to meteorologists

    i am going for big surprises.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    15 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    By the way metoffice have a warning out for snow on saturday!!any models show snow on saturday?!

    Warning is only for the far west and most models show a front trying to make it in. They are just covering themselves with a yellow warning as it’s unclear how far it will get..

    552EA199-AB45-4EFC-B471-A664E122AE2B.png

    B8B125C6-6CF8-4C43-B26A-C4D9490AF438.png

    9A30018D-75DE-44E5-A806-37043DECC6EA.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Warning is only for the far west and most models show a front trying to make it in. They are just covering themselves with a yellow warning as it’s unclear how far it will get..

    9A30018D-75DE-44E5-A806-37043DECC6EA.png

    The Arpege flirts with my location, whilst the others say no. 

    I thought the rollercoaster ride had finished yesterday.  Today however, perhaps not? 🤷‍♂️ Lets see what the ECM says......

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
    21 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    This can't be right? Look at those dewpoints for Saturday on GFS 12z

    image.thumb.png.1607e18bb5aaf72ea1ad5ae9f33b0f63.png

    SE feed, so as @nick sussex alluded to, looking at the values over France where the airmass will be coming from, then maybe?

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    2 minutes ago, saintkip said:

    And the Icon

    The icon is a rubbish model, we're not giving it airtime tonight  😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
    3 minutes ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:

     

    then why do people use that model? Icon is a great model 

    It was tounge in cheek as it sinks the high and its too far east.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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