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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    16 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    I haven’t posted much recently but I’d personally welcome some warmer weather turning up soon as I’d love to be able to spend some more time outdoors. I was hoping for a decent snow event before the winter is over, and that may still happen, but in the meantime I’ll happily enjoy an early taste of spring if these charts verify.😎

    Just to add, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed posting on here during the winter months and I’m so glad that I joined the forum back in November as this hobby has kept me going during the lockdown when there’s been little else to do and it has been a great season of model watching overall.😊

    998D9076-A133-400B-BD58-4062D6F843A5.thumb.gif.34fbc441def2a82b36a977df00fca21d.gifEB646C70-95B4-43E5-B286-2296E5C29A5E.thumb.gif.c63d7a85d6ff89f75a5e4cb3f25dd688.gif

    I’ve enjoyed reading your posts @Frosty Winter!  And you are right, the model watching has been great this winter with a virtual absence of the tropospheric polar vortex most of the time.  A SSW is always a two month model watching rollercoaster!  Just feel that more could have been delivered in the way of snow, although I know that is down to local experience.  We had more than any winter since the 2018 BFTE and in my location, I’ll take that.  

    One more sting in the tail, maybe?  Maybe that’s what the GFS was tilting at T384 (just for fun!):

    17C9A158-F1A7-45B1-BF0A-ED59F7DD3332.thumb.png.783023131a8ca39336f0b1e35627bdaa.png

    After that we could all do with some warmth!

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
    38 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    Anyone fancy a BBQ next week?

    ECM1-216.thumb.gif.a9063bda2ecf704d942cea7128e93273.gif   ECM0-216.thumb.gif.2a1a45ac1f29b1a2f4bafd17dfff71dc.gif

    High teens very likely in this set-up.  It should feel warm in the sunshine.

    All in FI though.

    Over winter the ECM has regularly thrown out solutions which depict high uppers getting dragged up to the uk from iberia/East Atlantic. None have ended up being anywhere close to what actually happens with any warmth normally being mixed out before it gets past the Pyrenees. Interesting to see how this latest one goes?

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    29 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

    ECM day 8-10 looks great to me. I like a bit of cold, but we’ve had a week of very cold stuff now.....time for a total flip and temps into the mid to high teens if that ECM comes off. Raw data has a few 16-18c patches at day 8-10. Spring isn’t far off 😎

    Not far off Feb 2019 territory now. If that spell hadn't lifted the bar so high, I'd be suggesting this one might be record-breaking. How ironic in such a cold winter, the records under most threat might still be mild ones! Such is winter these days!

    It's going to feel like summer after the recent cold - nearly 20C increase on this weekend. That's a stunning and highly unusual change in this part of the world.

    Nevertheless, this is still a way off, and ridging from the south of this kinds sometimes fails to make the whole journey to the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    3 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Not far off Feb 2019 territory now. If that spell hadn't lifted the bar so high, I'd be suggesting this one might be record-breaking. How ironic in such a cold winter, the records under most threat might still be mild ones! Such is winter these days!

    It's going to feel like summer after the recent cold - nearly 20C increase on this weekend. That's a stunning and highly unusual change in this part of the world.

    Nevertheless, this is still a way off, and ridging from the south of this kinds sometimes fails to make the whole journey to the UK.

    Yet a week ago we were all wishing for something closer to Feb 2018, but here we are and Feb 2019 is certainly looking more akin to the current model output. I still don't think this is the end of winter, no one starts packing their fans and AC units in the middle of August.

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    With such dire charts for cold fans now I have changed the subject of my thread to hunt for the February heatwave. It seems going by both 12z GFS and GEM we have two shots at a very warm spell for February, one around the 20th and the other around the 24th and it would seem the second spell is the one that has the most potential to be very mild.

    Untitled.thumb.png.d168b299cfb52105d63689da864c522a.pngUntitled.thumb.png.ebac0ebfe05515db3a4c9c05c33696b8.png

    I have removed all runs that do not get to at least 10C at 850hpa at any point. This leaves 7 of 32 runs on the GFS and 10 of 21 runs on the GEM. The GEM looks even more keen for the milder spell than GFS does and also has more members in percentage terms going for very mild with 10C+ uppers. Below I have picked out the mildest member from each peak and model to show what could potentially be possible both around the 20th and 24th

    20th February GFS

    Member 16     850hpa temp 8.3

    image.thumb.png.84ef6ba5963e47faa016e32da4b025ea.pngimage.thumb.png.e4b2161fd0c6326e96ec416f7de1e7e4.png

    20th February GEM

    Member 12     850hpa temp 12.2

    image.thumb.png.131330415e4fee0c21a09c47de89426a.pngimage.thumb.png.25ed9cc05ae145778a77995ee90cfdd1.png

    24th February GFS

    Member 30     850hpa temp 11.2

    image.thumb.png.7e4beeba1c9d9d2bf36245c7fa707174.pngimage.thumb.png.22f2d5960d8a96dbce8fd8fa460ef500.png

    24th February GEM

    Member 9     850hpa temp 13.9

    image.thumb.png.21ebb48b9e137354c0c9825e4c7972e5.pngimage.thumb.png.f637862234acf1d65d2c099ebe755b05.png

    Coldest charts from both 12z GFS and GEM

    Just to show that I am a fan of cold and to give the cold fans something to look at I have picked out the coldest charts from both 12z models

    GFS 12z

    Member 29     850hpa temp -14.0

    image.thumb.png.fbbf08487025c856f87d3485758bbba5.pngimage.thumb.png.6391d95ea51199fa2342c915383ac141.png

    GEM 12z

    Member 17     850hpa temp -6.6

    image.thumb.png.cba7d68bade04e46872dc098feb0a903.pngimage.thumb.png.99998547c0d1c200f56e51a1b29b488e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, BLIZZARDMAN said:

    Yet a week ago we were all wishing for something closer to Feb 2018, but here we are and Feb 2019 is certainly looking more akin to the current model output. I still don't think this is the end of winter, no one starts packing their fans and AC units in the middle of August.

    At this rate, I think I might be unpacking the fan next weekend! 😆

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    5 hours ago, Frostbite1980 said:

    @bluearmy are you still hoping a final downwelling will increase the chances of another cold snap/spell?

    Expecting one still?  - yes.  
     

    knowing how it will play out ? - nope 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Very different in here tonight compared to this time last week when it was buzzing........

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    Posted
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(
  • Location: Preston, 19m ASL when tide out :(

    Its a bit weird this winter, we always expect the best synoptics in late Feb march for clear reasons  we all know about but this year the whole winter has been great for watching, hoping for one last shot before spring! Take care guys

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    It’s quite strange watching the GFS 18 hrs run come out. At one point it looks like an absolute horror show for cold with  the PV looking very angry and a flat pattern with energy running over the top of the high and then the PV deflates and the Atlantic looks very weak with then a chance for the high to ridge north or ne.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    image.thumb.png.1ca5941c7c7b4dba6d771696a9940df9.pngimage.thumb.png.9c0881d3958d01b32bdf070e3feb7cd4.png     
     

    you could maybe deduce that this change from day 8 to day 14 could be a wave of reduced or reverse zonal heading down into the trop .....

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    image.thumb.png.1ca5941c7c7b4dba6d771696a9940df9.pngimage.thumb.png.9c0881d3958d01b32bdf070e3feb7cd4.png     
     

    you could maybe deduce that this change from day 8 to day 14 could be a wave of reduced or reverse zonal heading down into the trop .....

    Doesn't look like providing anything particularly exciting for us in two weeks, but perhaps something more interesting could follow?.....

    However, the Azores high looks to be a spoiler.

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    GEFS - interesting by D13 to say the least.

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    Posted
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
  • Location: Andover, Hampshire
    1 hour ago, Don said:

    Very different in here tonight compared to this time last week when it was buzzing........

    I’m buzzing tbf. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 minutes ago, Azazel said:

    I’m buzzing tbf. 

    Mild lovers will definitely be buzzing now!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    GEFS - interesting by D13 to say the least.

    Hopefully not because of exceptionally warm temperatures!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, Don said:

    Hopefully not because of exceptionally warm temperatures!

    quite a few looked like they would bring a Northerly within the first few days of March either via a Greenland or Atlantic ridge.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    quite a few looked like they would bring a Northerly within the first few days of March either via a Greenland or Atlantic ridge.

    Beggars can't be choosers but lets hope it's via a Greenland ridge, if we can get there in the first place!

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    1 minute ago, Don said:

    Beggars can't be choosers but lets hope it's via a Greenland ridge, if we can get there in the first place!

    Northerlies very very common place in early March.. we are entering the quarter of the year when easterlies and northerlies are at their yearly maxim..  traditionally the Atlantic goes into slumber. 

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    • Paul locked and unpinned this topic
    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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    This topic is now closed to further replies.
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