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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
  • Location: Port of Ness,Isle of Lewis.
    1 hour ago, Robbie Coldrain said:

    People always says how hard it is to shift a cold block, but in reality it never seems to be a problem.  7-10 days is generally all we can manage before the mild / Atlantic finds a way in. Yes there are exceptions to this, but they are rare.   

    This I agree with.

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    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Tottenham, N London
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, dry summers
  • Location: Tottenham, N London

    GFS 6Z depicting some lovely, mild weather for next week (IMO!) to balance the recent frigid temperatures we've had in the SE. 

    phwoar.thumb.png.db071c59663217d435c8a7dc3bff722d.png

    Edited by Stabilo19
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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    Model discussion only, please..

    Everything else: 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    57 minutes ago, MildCarlilse said:

    This I agree with.

    It hasn't been shifted its just slightly reoriented into a less favorable position for us.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    • Not posted for a while..go figure..,😜...but the ECM 0z op grabbed my attention..wow..talk about an early taste of spring?...just so you know, I’m still a coldie, but I’m also a realist?..whatever that is..hmm...anyway, I’m sad too say the cold is over..tears aplenty 😭....but there’s a mild spell imminently...oh my!..they say a week is a long time in politics..a week ago I was looking forward too a freeze..now I’m looking forward too mild crap..go figure!🙃
    • 5EDC7BD8-3DE0-4CFB-87FE-2EF25A150CD1.thumb.png.88328d4f56d40ddb61bef0e33dd0907d.pngDDB24333-E2ED-40EF-ABDB-2700050FB328.thumb.png.0352b164fdc4adca0cf80a626376697e.pngC327A633-0D95-401A-BAF9-3F42704E0BCC.thumb.gif.879b7590ae721fa333d934b82e57e9da.gif3AE6B5A3-A131-468B-A90F-9A840158D2FE.thumb.gif.5d83ca295f1be6ceb4905e84917d7cfe.gif
    •  

    6B6934EB-7808-4563-ABD8-C7A650D89B7D.png

    77B4D972-5CF0-4773-80F8-13A99D31A5D5.png

    B5B1B8D5-CE54-49CA-9EA0-FFDA614C80C2.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Most models have failed miserably with this afternoons snow! ..

    407DBF68-F844-4D92-9C54-B9A8F53FB8E8.png

    E30A943B-AA71-4F40-803C-94F0FD1823E3.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
    20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Most models have failed miserably with this afternoons snow! ..

    407DBF68-F844-4D92-9C54-B9A8F53FB8E8.png

    E30A943B-AA71-4F40-803C-94F0FD1823E3.jpeg

    Not really. Most of that on the radar evaporated before even hitting the ground. I’d say only Wales got a good covering. Else where no 

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Just to pass the time, gfs op and parallel at 180. 

    Apparently they're related? 

    gfsnh-0-180.png

    gfsnh-0-180 (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    16 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Just to pass the time, gfs op and parallel at 180. 

    Apparently they're related? 

    gfsnh-0-180.png

    gfsnh-0-180 (1).png

    GEM 180

    gemnh-0-180.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    11 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Gem is far more interesting earlier, 150

    gemnh-0-150.png

    For sure, an early taste of spring.?..,well, that’s what I’ve been reading on here for the last several days..yeah..I’m a lurker!😜

    FB15AEF4-03E0-44C0-9813-8A7EC9B3D8B6.thumb.png.3fb7edee14d133c866eeeccfcc2e0ae7.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Scratching around for some interest here ! The PV seems to wind up itself up and then deflates and splinters later on . Only then is there a realistic chance of getting the high further north .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, Jon Snow said:

    For sure, an early taste of spring.?..,well, that’s what I’ve been reading on here for the last several days..yeah..I’m a lurker!😜

    FB15AEF4-03E0-44C0-9813-8A7EC9B3D8B6.thumb.png.3fb7edee14d133c866eeeccfcc2e0ae7.pngB6CB4BBC-B77C-4C25-91F4-C739A1BADBD4.thumb.png.a910cb37fb5f4debdcd8e023ca81a0f1.png

    You'll love the gfs op at 270, beautiful omega block, with us stuck in the middle enjoying warmth 

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    UKMO t144

    Well hello again Greenland vortex,long time no see. 

    146428438_UN144-21(4).thumb.gif.f4626360bb878ffed3e91509460b65a2.gif

    Now if you could have just stayed away for a couple of weeks more so that we could have seen Winter out with more snow it would have finished the season off nicely for coldies.

    As it is we are transiting to milder by Monday and then back to our usual setup as the south westerlies take over.It still looks like a high will build somewhere around the UK towards week 2 so i guess that would bring some dry weather,maybe some colder nights again depending on the wind flow and cloud breaks.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    3 minutes ago, Griff said:

    You'll love the gfs op at 270, beautiful omega block

    yeah, beautiful..,keep flying the cold flag..great job!😉

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    10 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    For sure, an early taste of spring.?..,well, that’s what I’ve been reading on here for the last several days..yeah..I’m a lurker!😜

    FB15AEF4-03E0-44C0-9813-8A7EC9B3D8B6.thumb.png.3fb7edee14d133c866eeeccfcc2e0ae7.png

    Enjoy! 

    gemnh-0-240.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

    Wow talk about a quick vortex recovery even after the battering its had over the last couple of months.....i take my hat off to you sir 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Anyone else get the feeling with the current charts, you may as well be searching for cold in July/August?!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    3 minutes ago, Don said:

    Anyone else get the feeling with the current charts, you may as well be searching for cold in July/August?!

    Yes it might seem that way but I’m going to give it a few more days. If the PV winds itself up and then quickly deflates going by the GFS trend then there’s still some hope for the end of February into early March .

    I’m not a fan of spring cold as you always have that what if feeling , unless you get something outlandish like 2018 !

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Don said:

    Anyone else get the feeling with the current charts, you may as well be searching for cold in July/August?!

    Some of us will Don 😉 sometimes my friend the models look to be pointing towards nothingness...when all of a sudden Boom...the output flips on its heads. I feel perhaps the models are reacting to a strengthening of the strat...they mabe overplaying its strength and positioning. I think we still have enough of a mess in the trop to have plenty of doubts as to where we are heading beyond a week. The next 7 days do look set in stone,but I'm confident that its beyond this point that we may see the idea from the models of importing Heights to a more favourable position..Namely the N/NW or NE.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire

    @bluearmy are you still hoping a final downwelling will increase the chances of another cold snap/spell?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    By day ten the GEFS have a range of solutions .

    Theres a cluster of around 6 which I shall name the Cluster of Hope ! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Yes it might seem that way but I’m going to give it a few more days. If the PV winds itself up and then quickly deflates going by the GFS trend then there’s still some hope for the end of February into early March .

    I’m not a fan of spring cold as you always have that what if feeling , unless you get something outlandish like 2018 !

    Could that be a result of a final downwelling wave as Bluearmy has alluded to?

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    • Paul locked and unpinned this topic
    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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