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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    After some initial wetness during the change from cold to mild. The ECM shows some mildness/warmth but the block is never too far away.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irvine
  • Location: Irvine

    Time to settle down... the current cold spell took several attempts and model flipping before it got here. The cold is not far away and we cant rule out a model flip once again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    7 hours ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    Maybe back to a very cold spell. 

    Hopefully but the models continue to be in very strong agreement for a mild outlook.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    8 minutes ago, Don said:

    Hopefully but the models continue to be in very strong agreement for a mild outlook.

     

    I feel ready for some warmth now. A good seven day cold spell following on from a chilly at times January has been enough of a fill for me. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Hi, i dont post in here often as i dont have the technical knowledge of some however one thing is bugging me. Can anyone explain why the met office in their extended outlook are still saying that from the weekend of 20 th feb temps will be below average with frost and fog when it is clear from the gfs/ecm charts that if anything temps will be well above average. I really thought the latest update from the MO would reflect this. Is there another model informing them differently or is this just a 'human' input into their predictions?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
    17 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    Hi, i dont post in here often as i dont have the technical knowledge of some however one thing is bugging me. Can anyone explain why the met office in their extended outlook are still saying that from the weekend of 20 th feb temps will be below average with frost and fog when it is clear from the gfs/ecm charts that if anything temps will be well above average. I really thought the latest update from the MO would reflect this. Is there another model informing them differently or is this just a 'human' input into their predictions?

     

    Latest GFS is showing high pressure centred over UK. Cold nights certain if this comes off. Days feeling mild in any sunshine but 24 hour mean probably average or just below. 

     

    850s high but surface cold will develop. 

    Edited by Climate Man
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    24 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    Hi, i dont post in here often as i dont have the technical knowledge of some however one thing is bugging me. Can anyone explain why the met office in their extended outlook are still saying that from the weekend of 20 th feb temps will be below average with frost and fog when it is clear from the gfs/ecm charts that if anything temps will be well above average. I really thought the latest update from the MO would reflect this. Is there another model informing them differently or is this just a 'human' input into their predictions?

     

    That will most likely change in a few hours, although Climate Man makes a fair point.

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    27 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    Hi, i dont post in here often as i dont have the technical knowledge of some however one thing is bugging me. Can anyone explain why the met office in their extended outlook are still saying that from the weekend of 20 th feb temps will be below average with frost and fog when it is clear from the gfs/ecm charts that if anything temps will be well above average. I really thought the latest update from the MO would reflect this. Is there another model informing them differently or is this just a 'human' input into their predictions?

     

    It'll change today in the 2-30 pm update.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

    On the horns of a dilemma personally with the latest output.

    I surprised myself  really after weeks of hoping for prolonged cold and snow chances until Spring, I have been rather taken with the idea of unusual warmth for late February.

    It seems that Winter for the most part has been a long hard slog, the snow chase since December has been great to follow on the models,however,on the ground here there has been alot of cold,foggy and wet days.

    I think the thought of somthing spring like is alot more inspiring now than some 'halfway house' cold snap!

    What I will say though,( as I still have another cold chase in me) is that I have seen these scenarios before where a signal for a block somewhere is shown but the positioning can vary wildly,with that in mind we could well see High pressure positioning in a suitable position at day 10 for a renewed shot at somthing Wintry.

    Personally speaking it would need to be 2018 style levels, I cant be f*rting around with marginal situations again down here.

     

    Edited by sunnijim
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    It'll change today in the 2-30 pm update.

    Thanks, will check the next MO update with interest

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    This is a winter we can turn to 1952 for inspiration. One in which we had a mild start and end to February with a cold spell mid month.

    I think this winter the models have shown northern blocking of varying degrees and will continue to do so, it's just a case of the cookie getting crumbled the right way!

    Gav's description here of a blizzard in late March feels it provides a little taster of what we have missed out on in terms of the way this cold spell could have developed and, at times what the models were showing would develop.  Of course at this time of year it would have been a lot more severe and longer lasting!   But it does go to show that there is plenty time for other opportunities to come along....

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells 140m asl
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells 140m asl
    53 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    Hi, i dont post in here often as i dont have the technical knowledge of some however one thing is bugging me. Can anyone explain why the met office in their extended outlook are still saying that from the weekend of 20 th feb temps will be below average with frost and fog when it is clear from the gfs/ecm charts that if anything temps will be well above average. I really thought the latest update from the MO would reflect this. Is there another model informing them differently or is this just a 'human' input into their predictions?

     

    They only seem to actually update that part of the forecast once every 24hrs so although it says 'updated at 0400' it's always the same as it was at 1600

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    13 minutes ago, Robbie Coldrain said:

    People always says how hard it is to shift a cold block, but in reality it never seems to be a problem.  7-10 days is generally all we can manage before the mild / Atlantic finds a way in. Yes there are exceptions to this, but they are rare.   

    I think that has definitely been the case in the past, but warmer oceans nowadays maybe providing more energy for low pressure systems to overcome cold blocks more easily?

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
    33 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    Thanks, will check the next MO update with interest

    Not sure it will.....

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Not sure personally the met office outlook will change overly today. If we take the gefs at 300 hours there are some very cold easterlies still in amongst them. A big push north of warmth followed by another easterly is a perfectly sensible evolution from where we are. If it happens it would probably be short given how late in the season were getting, but it might be punchy.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    Not sure personally the met office outlook will change overly today. If we take the gefs at 300 hours there are some very cold easterlies still in amongst them. A big push north of warmth followed by another easterly is a perfectly sensible evolution from where we are. If it happens it would probably be short given how late in the season were getting, but it might be punchy.

     

    The 'mini' BFTE mid March 2018 was short but certainly punchy!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Jason M said:

    Not sure personally the met office outlook will change overly today. If we take the gefs at 300 hours there are some very cold easterlies still in amongst them. A big push north of warmth followed by another easterly is a perfectly sensible evolution from where we are. If it happens it would probably be short given how late in the season were getting, but it might be punchy.

     

    The poster i replied to quoted the 20th though, those cliff fallers on the GEFS, (and looks like eps 12z yesterday as the low percentile dipped below -10c) are right at the end of the run, there is nothing below -5c on the 20th and about 85% are around +5, it only makes sense to keep mentioning snow either very late on in their 6-15 dayer but really only in their 16-30 dayer.

    gfs-manchester-gb-535n-2 (8).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    The poster i replied to quoted the 20th though, those cliff fallers on the GEFS, (and looks like eps 12z yesterday as the low percentile dipped below -10c) are right at the end of the run, there is nothing below -5c on the 20th and about 85% are around +5, it only makes sense to keep mentioning snow either very late on in their 6-15 dayer but really only in their 16-30 dayer.

    gfs-manchester-gb-535n-2 (8).png

    There is definitely strong agreement there but as Climate Man commented, surface conditions may still be cold at night?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Don said:

    There is definitely strong agreement there but as Climate Man commented, surface conditions may still be cold at night?

    Run after run this is being churned out, its not until later in the run that the high ridges North.

    image.thumb.png.2e529d95d25344b868f861f4a6a2331f.pngimage.thumb.png.ce93426b24d07682a00365a3d05d18af.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    The poster i replied to quoted the 20th though, those cliff fallers on the GEFS, (and looks like eps 12z yesterday as the low percentile dipped below -10c) are right at the end of the run, there is nothing below -5c on the 20th and about 85% are around +5, it only makes sense to keep mentioning snow either very late on in their 6-15 dayer but really only in their 16-30 dayer.

    gfs-manchester-gb-535n-2 (8).png

    That ensemble chart does definately not show below average temps from the 20th onwards. If it is true that at least part of the MOs forecast is only updated every 24 hours then this afternoons update should surely reflect the increase in temps. Interesting one...

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Run after run this is being churned out, its not until later in the run that the high ridges North.

    image.thumb.png.2e529d95d25344b868f861f4a6a2331f.pngimage.thumb.png.ce93426b24d07682a00365a3d05d18af.png

    Yes, we will see what the Metoffice say shortly.

    BTW, I think if the very mild/warm spell does come off with temps pushing 20C, I think you should change your user name to feb2021heatwave......  What do you say?! 😉

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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