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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    5 minutes ago, MP-R said:

    Quite possible that March might bring the most Atlantic spell of the extended winter period like in 2019, if anything like the current model runs comes off. All a long way off though and will all depend on how high pressure to the east behaves towards month's end.

    I think the model roller coaster has finally ended this evening!

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    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    3 minutes ago, Don said:

    I think the model roller coaster has finally ended this evening!

    It will keep going..it always does.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex
    1 hour ago, Don said:

    I for one would not be happy.  20C in February is simply not right!

    Probably the future though and likely to become more common.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    8 minutes ago, Robbie Coldrain said:

    Probably the future though and likely to become more common.

    Sadly yes along with 40C plus in summer but that doesn't make it any better!

    Hoping for a miracle model flip in the morning....

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    29 minutes ago, Don said:

    Sadly yes along with 40C plus in summer but that doesn't make it any better!

    Hoping for a miracle model flip in the morning....

    flip flops are common these days

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    3 hours ago, snefnug said:

    Are there thoughts as to why the models overestimated depth of cold?

     

    Well, this cold spell was a bit of a mix between transported cold from the Russian Arctic and radiative cooling at night.
    Perhaps some of the moderation of the Russian cold over the Baltic Sea was underestimated? I think the flow was also more slack than originally forecasted, and for my location I know that there was more cloud cover than even the short term high resolution models forecasted.

    With cold spells, in this case an Easterly, everything has to be right for it to be severe and lasting.
    The UK is fully surrounded by seas and an ocean, the European mainland has the ocean to the West, the North Sea and the Baltic to the North and the Mediterranean and Black sea to the South(East). Water bodies everywhere.
    Slight changes in wind direction at the surface, a little bit more or less moisture and clouds, it can all have big impacts in our part of the world.

    With Easterlies there is just that little alley that allows the very coldest of Siberian air to come West without moderation.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    3 hours ago, Don said:

    Amazing how this time last week we were looking at a potentially historic February!  I wonder where we will be this time next week?!

    Maybe back to a very cold spell. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    2 hours ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

    OK. Let's have a minute. Today is the 13th of February.Still. Winter. All those on here that are thinking the cold has gone for this winter may need to think again. Fantasy island for me is about 4 days maximum. The main players maybe showing mild thru and thru but I for one have seen the ensembles switch within 5 days. So anything after Tuesday is up for grabs in my eyes. This sort of model watching saves a lot of disappointment and as served me well thru the years. What is showing now for Wednesday. Will not be the same as shown today on the 18z. Very small differences at the starting point will change the route the models will take within a very short time. My point is if you. Like cold or warm and count down from day 10 you will most definitely be disappointed by day 0. Winter is most definitely not over by a long shot and I for one are still chasing the cold until at least the last week of March. So in the morning let's see if anything changes from the 0 to 120hr time frame. Night all

    Excellent post. Thank you and I will also be waiting in thee wings so to speak 

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    This mornings models are awful with the UKMO in full Bartlett mode by next week and looking at GFS its difficult to see any return to meaningful cold before the end of meteorological winter.

    Dry and mild seems the way forward which will suit many and at least no sign of a return to raging Atlantic weather.

    However, while on its own its meaningless the GFS brings in a Scandinavia High on the first day of spring and IMO a return to cold in early March is likely and with North East Europe never really warming up any  easterly wind could quickly become very cold.

    I am still betting on a cold March In line with the MetO MRF.

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Morning all from a very cold Austria , current temp -20.2 c ! Well what a turn around . You just could not imagine a week ago the flow was heading out from the far plains of Russia  and next weekend according to this chart from ECM , next weekend has a drift out of what looks like deepest Africa !  Sure there will be another switch during the coming days. Just amazing rise in temps for you lot !

    C

    ECMOPNH00_192_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    Quite an exceptional ECM with +10 uppers moving north by next weekend. Could almost be a 20 degree swing in temps from this weekend in some areas..

     

    ECMOPEU00_216_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    7 hours ago, booferking said:

    Wonder how many times in history this has happened a weather station in the uk records -23c and then another +20c in February.🤪🤪

    A monthly range of over 40c, can’t happen very often? Especially in winter? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    A monthly range of over 40c, can’t happen very often? Especially in winter? 

    It has only happened once in 1955 went from -25C to 15C a range of 40°C, funny how in recent days we saw coldest Feb temp since 1955.

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    Just now, Daniel* said:

    It has only happened once in 1955 went from -25C to 15C a range of 40°C, funny how in recent days we saw coldest Feb temp since 1955.

    I wonder what March 1955 was like?

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    22 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    A monthly range of over 40c, can’t happen very often? Especially in winter? 

    March 1965 recorded a minimum of sub -20C and a maximum of 25C

    January 1958 had minima as low as -21C and the following couple of days it got up 17C, even got up to 18.3C in North Wales

    I think Shawbury got close to -20C in January 1982 and recorded a maximum of nearly 13C at the end of the same month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    It's just another 384hrs to wait until the beast returns 😝

    image.thumb.png.5eba073ba0a156f83d2848897bfed255.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

    Ok back to the Models please, not what we want or don't want. Or what we think others want...

    Thanks all ☺️

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Same overall pattern this morning but a bit flatter upstream towards day 9 and 10 so less movement north of the Euro high .

    I think at this point that timeframe will decide whether the winter limps out or whether there’s one last hurrah .

    If the models fail to sharpen up the upstream pattern and don’t ridge the high north then it’s game over for any further cold before the end of February.

    Before then a huge switchover on temps with the Euro high and very mild air moving north out of Africa .

    Looks like I can get the sun lounger out down here !

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    CFS still shows a glancing blow for the SE- completely against all the other models very odd

    Screenshot_20210213-082339_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210213-082313_Samsung Internet.jpg

    Screenshot_20210213-082254_Samsung Internet.jpg

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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