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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Pub run T138, fuelling a high pressure north bit like UKMO:

    A65B3D0B-A442-4DEA-BDFE-FBB8D74E33CF.thumb.jpeg.b98654ea1db74ffeb25eb2a6fcf01b8f.jpeg

    Edit, having watched this and the // I think I might turn in now!  More runs needed...

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Edit, having watched this and the // I think I might turn in now!  More runs needed...

    Oh dear......

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Fairly quiet in here today, must be signs mild weather is on the horizon given we are in February.

    The models are all in sync at the moment, high pressure sinking into Europe, low pressure sitting out to our west, end result a mild S/SW feed. Rain for western and north west parts, drier further south east with some sunshine. All rather humdrum compared to the last week.

    The atlantic does look weak though and there is every likelihood heights to the south and east will build back through the UK as we enter last week of the month, and thereafter may have an easy ride of building to our north.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    5 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Fairly quiet in here today, must be signs mild weather is on the horizon given we are in February.

    Yes, I think this thread will be rather slow moving for the next few days at least!

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
    1 minute ago, Don said:

    Yes, I think this thread will be rather slow moving for the next few days at least!

    Give us all time to catch up on some sleep🤣👍.Find it fascinating model watching this winter.Amazing how the models seem to be firming up on mild weather now for next 10-12 days as it was just a couple days it looked even money we could be going cold again from 20th February.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    I’m seeing 20C potential on pub run into following weekend a February 2019 repeat, its perishingly cold in London at the moment I wouldn’t be upset - then one last hoorah. Closer to time this could easily trend much colder but interesting all the same this would be an unprecedented shift. 

    46279E49-DCAE-407B-9DE0-911E82695A6A.thumb.png.457df316343c6cdd29f814284ddedf9a.png9A17006F-FA3F-44FD-A18B-B9B6B960798F.thumb.png.2ecb25e54ec03592688c3c25537b7303.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    4 minutes ago, Hotspur62 said:

    Give us all time to catch up on some sleep🤣👍.Find it fascinating model watching this winter.Amazing how the models seem to be firming up on mild weather now for next 10-12 days as it was just a couple days it looked even money we could be going cold again from 20th February.

    Amazing how this time last week we were looking at a potentially historic February!  I wonder where we will be this time next week?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    I’m seeing 20C potential on pub run into following weekend a February 2019 repeat, its perishingly cold in London at the moment I wouldn’t be upset - then one last hoorah. Closer to time this could easily trend much colder but interesting all the same this would be an unprecedented shift. 

     

    I for one would not be happy.  20C in February is simply not right!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    10 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Model depictions of cold at ten days -- fantasy island.

    Model depictions of mild at ten days -- guaranteed gulch

    What are your thoughts for the end of February and March, Roger?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Wow, very strong signal in the GEFS at day 9 for something akin to a Spanish plume. Doesn't mean they are right but rare to see such strong agreement on something like that at day 9. Shame its not a couple of weeks later at we could have seen some really good temps. Just a bit early though and southerlies at the surface in Feb are not always as warm in reality as the uppers suggest as its traveling over a still cold landmass.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    Could be a month of extremes. Coldest February night since 1955, and very mild temperatures at the end. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Get the alignment right and we could be pushing 20c in some parts. GFS shows raw values of 17c. Would feel absolutely lovely after this cold spell and a winter that has seemingly dragged on forever.

    My interest in winter these days lies roughly from 1st December through to mid Feb.

    Seems ever more that we are heading for a February 2019 type event which I would not like and find the prospects rather horrifying!  However, you just know these charts will come off!  Have you have given up on the idea for cold in March?

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    6 minutes ago, Don said:

    Have you have given up on the idea for cold in March?

    Nope!

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent

    We're moving back into familiar territory for models what with the effects of SSW becoming less of a factor as well. 

    FI has recently been at close range but I reckon we'll soon see FI become further out. The 10 day charts are likely to verify now (especially being mild charts). 

    We have one more day of proper cold but after that all eyes on spring and warm depicting model runs!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    50 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    I’m seeing 20C potential on pub run into following weekend a February 2019 repeat, its perishingly cold in London at the moment I wouldn’t be upset - then one last hoorah. Closer to time this could easily trend much colder but interesting all the same this would be an unprecedented shift. 

    46279E49-DCAE-407B-9DE0-911E82695A6A.thumb.png.457df316343c6cdd29f814284ddedf9a.png9A17006F-FA3F-44FD-A18B-B9B6B960798F.thumb.png.2ecb25e54ec03592688c3c25537b7303.png

    Wonder how many times in history this has happened a weather station in the uk records -23c and then another +20c in February.🤪🤪

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Nope!

    Ok, that's good to hear as I don't think I will see more snow for the rest of February (not that I've had much anyway!).

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    4 minutes ago, Bradley in Kent said:

    We're moving back into familiar territory for models what with the effects of SSW becoming less of a factor as well. 

    Possibly but I'm not sure the effects of the SSW are necessarily done with us yet?

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    Posted
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy days and long hot summer days with a big overnight thunderstorm
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK

    Get the BBQ's ready!

    1609143411_Capture1.thumb.PNG.d2740a39d9282bcd91d698d39e83e585.PNGCapture.thumb.PNG.560e8a0d82dff6713f72cc4d7f9d91a4.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, Iceman2606 said:

    Get the BBQ's ready!

    1609143411_Capture1.thumb.PNG.d2740a39d9282bcd91d698d39e83e585.PNGCapture.thumb.PNG.560e8a0d82dff6713f72cc4d7f9d91a4.PNG

    And to think only a week ago I was comparing this February to 1986...... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Anything below 0c or above 15c (the sunnier the better!)
  • Location: Maidstone, Kent
    13 minutes ago, Don said:

    Possibly but I'm not sure the effects of the SSW are necessarily done with us yet?

    Good evening, on the decline I'd say. The PV normally weakens in early spring anyway where the Westerly winds won't be as anomalously weak. Not ruling out cold snaps, but I reckon the models will be a bit more predictable/ reliable in picking up trends.

    Edited by Bradley in Kent
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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    3 minutes ago, Don said:

    Possibly but I'm not sure the effects of the SSW are necessarily done with us yet?

    I could still see a chance for another cold easterly. Maybe 40% chance for something around the turn of the month? Only thing is that if it happens I think it will be a bone dry stratus fest rather than a snowy easterly and if that's the case I think I'd rather have a Bartlett. Just watch a snowstorm pop up on the morning runs now 😀. A big push north of warmth across the UK would logically promote a cold easterly to follow. Pressure would probably be very high though, so little convective potential. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Quite possible that March might bring the most Atlantic spell of the extended winter period like in 2019, if anything like the current model runs comes off. All a long way off though and will all depend on how high pressure to the east behaves towards month's end.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    4 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    I could still see a chance for another cold easterly. Maybe 40% chance for something around the turn of the month? Only thing is that if it happens I think it will be a bone dry stratus fest rather than a snowy easterly and if that's the case I think I'd rather have a Bartlett. Just watch a snowstorm pop up on the morning runs now 😀. A big push north of warmth across the UK would logically promote a cold easterly to follow. Pressure would probably be very high though, so little convective potential. 

    Just out of interest, why do you think it would be dry rather than snowy?

    EDIT - you actually explained that in you post doh! 

    Edited by Don
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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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