Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 10/02/21


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    27 minutes ago, Frigid said:

    Looks like Feb 2019 could be making a return

    1998976054_ens_image(8).thumb.png.c56513c0857d3f426f5dffbdac414a97.png

    Well, there goes the below average February!

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3.1k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, inc Snow and Wind
  • Location: Poole

    Evening All,

    Does anybody know if any of the model ensemble data is available as a data file, as opposed to pre-constructed chart form?

    I’d like to start plotting different runs for the same date and see how much they vary as they get closer to the period they’re predicting.

    Thanks

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Only 6 decent GEFS members and even they have been put back - only right at the end now.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London

    I have been following the CFS model for a few months in preparation for this winter and I have been very impressed so far

     

    Interesting CFS 6Z model updated trend for next Wednesday 17th Feb. HP setting in allowing a very cold feed to commence

    (As Always: Subject To Change)

    179979242_01_CFS6ZZ50012_02.2021For17_02.2021_6pm.thumb.png.2a833663b089bdb5044f557dcc7452c5.png

     

    Following the CFS 6Z trend for the 18th Feb, HP is more established with a very cold feed flowing towards the eastern part of the UK

    (As Always: Subject To Change)

    1872752480_02_CFS6ZZ50012_02.2021For18_02.2021_6pm.thumb.png.58860854eff6864a4011d457dafff572.png

     

    Continuing the CFS 6Z trend for the 19th Feb, HP again is established with a very cold feed especially to the UK's E & SE

    (As Always: Subject To Change)

    809853016_03_CFS6ZZ50012_02.2021For19_02.2021_6pm.thumb.png.1c853e7d76f7f2727d2a5f6dfac8ab1c.png

     

    Continuing the CFS 6Z trend for the 26th Feb, HP again is established with a very cold feed especially to the UK's N/NE/E/SE

    (As Always: Subject To Change)

    1694964247_04_CFS6ZZ50012_02.2021For26_02.2021_6am.thumb.png.87bb470a074fd273cd836778fe5777b3.png

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, yamkin said:

    I have been following the CFS model for a few months in preparation for this winter and I have been very impressed so far

     

    Interesting CFS 6Z model updated trend for next Wednesday 17th Feb. HP setting in allowing a very cold feed to commence

    (As Always: Subject To Change)

    179979242_01_CFS6ZZ50012_02.2021For17_02.2021_6pm.thumb.png.2a833663b089bdb5044f557dcc7452c5.png

     

    Following the CFS 6Z trend for the 18th Feb, HP is more established with a very cold feed flowing towards the eastern part of the UK

    (As Always: Subject To Change)

     

     

    Continuing the CFS 6Z trend for the 19th Feb, HP again is established with a very cold feed especially to the UK's E & SE

    (As Always: Subject To Change)

     

     

    Continuing the CFS 6Z trend for the 26th Feb, HP again is established with a very cold feed especially to the UK's N/NE/E/SE

    (As Always: Subject To Change)

     

    Not a prayer that Easterly will verify at D6 when cross suites total more than 100 members and not a single one backs it, if ever there was the dictionary definition of a huge synoptic outlier, this is it.

    EDIT : anyone who thinks whole suites flip completely to show a colder outcome at this range, here's your perfect opportunity to prove it to me. Good luck!

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    Not a prayer that Easterly will verify at D6 when cross suites total more than 100 members and not a single one backs it, if ever there was the dictionary definition of a huge synoptic outlier, this is it.

    0Z was also on the same page. Let's see what 12Z unfolds. CFS has been very good this winter. I'm not indicating that the CFS 0Z & 6Z will pull off, but it's nice to see a model run like this 👍🏾

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    CFS might be doing ok at picking out patterns long term but I’d bet my house it won’t correctly pick out a change at day 5 when it’s not backed by any other model. Our only hope at an easterly is day 10+ and even that is now looking like a slim chance with a UK high the most likely outcome at day 10. 

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

    No joy from the ECM sisters up till 192 either,

    today has been very poor for a quick return to a cold pattern. I think we have been spoilt this winter (at least in terms of the rollercoaster of model watching).

    Let's hope the pub run can pull something out the bag.

     

    ECH1-192 (9).gif

    ECH1-192 (8).gif

    Edited by Battleground Snow
    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    CFS might be doing ok at picking out patterns long term but I’d bet my house it won’t correctly pick out a change at day 5 when it’s not backed by any other model. Our only hope at an easterly is day 10+ and even that is now looking like a slim chance with a UK high the most likely outcome at day 10. 

    My only contribution, I suspect, this evening... Just for pure comedy value alone, I would love to see this post age very badly... Come on CFS, you can do it! 

    😜

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cambourne,Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Cambourne,Cambridgeshire

    Here's a chart we have not seen much of this Winter

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/para/runs/2021021212/ECM1-168.GIF?12-0 

     

    Was hoping for a settled and dry end to Winter. Sadly if the UKMO and ECM have picked up on the Atlantic winning out. It could end up being a mild wet n windy end to Winter

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    12 minutes ago, zubzero said:

    Here's a chart we have not seen much of this Winter

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/para/runs/2021021212/ECM1-168.GIF?12-0 

     

    Was hoping for a settled and dry end to Winter. Sadly if the UKMO and ECM have picked up on the Atlantic winning out. It could end up being a mild wet n windy end to Winter

    Looks ok to me if it’s a dry end to winter you are looking for 🤷🏻‍♂️

    592C905D-BCAC-43B7-AA23-3B2B89C86BE5.gif

    6929592E-82CC-4AA2-8A33-6C1DA90310DF.png

    06356B66-7A1A-4B7B-AA1C-019D09B801CE.png

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    The ECM parallel seems to pump out the same charts as the current op, no difference at 240, if that is the modus operandi then i can't see much point in it becoming operational, it needs a big improvement at those kind of ranges to make it a worthwhile forecasting tool, perhaps i suppose they are more thinking of miniscule adjustments to slightly improve the much shorter timeframes perhaps?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Unusually good agreement between the ECM and GFS at day ten.

    The Euro high ridges north west as the upstream pattern develops sufficient amplitude and then both leave the carrot dangling of looking ne once again !

    Not sure I have the stamina for this ! 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Can I have this one back in a couple of months? Straight line draw from the south. ALIWBM.

    Screenshot_20210212-190241.thumb.png.c934259ec1038e2cca0b81d50ef53fa1.png

    Edit - ECM maxes for D8/D9 up to 17C (does it also underdo maxima in warm winter conditions?)

    Edited by Man Without Beard
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    46 minutes ago, Theresnoway said:

    Evening All,

    Does anybody know if any of the model ensemble data is available as a data file, as opposed to pre-constructed chart form?

    I’d like to start plotting different runs for the same date and see how much they vary as they get closer to the period they’re predicting.

    Thanks

    GEFS is produced by NOAA-NCEP.

    Their data are available here:

    I would not be surprised though if it were quite a puzzle to get those complex data sorted out.
    It would not be my favourite chore, but perhaps you're a data freak? 😉

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    The ECM parallel seems to pump out the same charts as the current op, no difference at 240, if that is the modus operandi then i can't see much point in it becoming operational, it needs a big improvement at those kind of ranges to make it a worthwhile forecasting tool, perhaps i suppose they are more thinking of miniscule adjustments to slightly improve the much shorter timeframes perhaps?

    I think the GFS // runs are usually a major upgrade (this one has almost double the vertical resolution), but I think the ECM // runs are fairly minor upgrades?  

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

    Poorer output this evening for a quicker return to any cold.  A fairly large change from UKMO too from earlier runs.

    GEFS showing very mild and mostly dry conditions after Day 6/7. Would be nice to at least stay dry if we can’t get the cold. Clear trend to higher temps after day 6/7 when comparing to the ENS yesterday.

    Marco (Met) tweeted earlier today that they are expecting it to turn colder from the east as early as perhaps next Friday. Seems a long way away from that in tonight’s output but who knows...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    2 minutes ago, bradymk said:

    Poorer output this evening for a quicker return to any cold.  A fairly large change from UKMO too from earlier runs.

    GEFS showing very mild and mostly dry conditions after Day 6/7. Would be nice to at least stay dry if we can’t get the cold. Clear trend to higher temps after day 6/7 when comparing to the ENS yesterday.

    Marco (Met) tweeted earlier today that they are expecting it to turn colder from the east as early as perhaps next Friday. Seems a long way away from that in tonight’s output but who knows...

    Despite tonight's output, worth remembering ecm ensembles still favoured MLB or HLB from D10 onwards. Will it be the same tonight?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
    3 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Despite tonight's output, worth remembering ecm ensembles still favoured MLB or HLB from D10 onwards. Will it be the same tonight?

    At this range too, MLB’s showing at Day 10 in the Ens could easily be positioned more favourably for us nearer the time. Which as we know can vastly change surface conditions. 

    Day 10 on GEM could be very different for example if that block was further west come t+0

    Hoping the EC Ens still hold some promise longer term 🙏

    In the here and now, also hoping the front makes it to Cardiff tomorrow to see some snow out of this spell!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level

    About the cold vs mild battle:

    Last week we expected that the models would underestimate the resilience of the cold block.
    One week ago, the model output for Holland consistently showed 4-5 days in a row with daily maxima between -5c and -8c and minima below -15c. That is very cold air, and very difficult to move.

    However, apparently the models across the board overestimated the depth of cold, because although we are seeing ice days in Holland, they are more -1c to 0c during the day, and between -5c and -10c during the night.
    Less cold, therefore a less resilient cold block, more vulnerable to the Atlantic attack.

    In other words: the models were wrong about the depth of cold (and the amount of snow), but right about the breakdown.

    The current FI developments of new blocking and cold approaching are not very convincing yet, after seeing the 12z output.
    There is a lot of scatter though. No solution is certain yet.

     

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, inc Snow and Wind
  • Location: Poole
    26 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

    GEFS is produced by NOAA-NCEP.

    Their data are available here:

    I would not be surprised though if it were quite a puzzle to get those complex data sorted out.
    It would not be my favourite chore, but perhaps you're a data freak? 😉

     

    Superb, thanks for the link. I’m a wanna be data freak 😀. There must be some kind of automation that could be set up to pull the latest data into a DB. I might just give it a go!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
    35 minutes ago, JimBob said:

    Looks like winter is over then, models looking good for a big warm up! 

    Yeah but does winter ever start in Somerset? 😁

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    35 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Despite tonight's output, worth remembering ecm ensembles still favoured MLB or HLB from D10 onwards. Will it be the same tonight?

    No unfortunately, slipping further and further South with every run at D10.

    image.thumb.png.985af8d766a714007dc5dc4894529475.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Somerset
  • Location: Somerset
    1 minute ago, Bradowl said:

    Yeah but does winter ever start in Somerset? 😁

    We had a frost this week!! ❄️

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Sunshine & showers today, wet & windy Saturday, warmer but blustery Sunday

      Showers developing across northern and eastern areas today, wet and windy for many on Saturday, sunshine & blustery showers on Sunday, but it will be warmer, perhaps reaching 20C in the southeast. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Good news for gardeners: Frost-free from this weekend - Plus some more rain

      Some good news for gardeners and farmers alike, it looks like most will see the back of the frosts that have been a feature of many nights since late March from this weekend. While it stays unsettled with further rain or showers. View the full blog here

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-05-06 08:50:36 Valid: 06/05/2021 0600 - 06/05/2021 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 06 MAY 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...