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Model output discussion 10/02/21


Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    The thing is even at 162 hours the block is still there and front are struggling to get any further than us!!!this is not over by a long way!!!especially if ecm moves towards gfs!

    gfs-2-174.png?12

    Get your magnifying glass out but even after the front has died a death and slipped away south the revenants are still wintry in nature over the south east at day 7

    Edited by frosty ground
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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, SqueakheartLW said:

    image.thumb.png.a40026a21cd5ea846277823a783bcf10.png

    Southerly wind but 2m temps are still only around 3 to 6C

    Really chilly!!!!if ecm moves towarda gfs i be happy with the 12zs!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Rugeley, Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Frost, snow, thunderstorms, sunshine, intense heat
  • Location: Rugeley, Staffordshire

    GFSp suggesting what would be the coldest night in lowland England so far this winter. -10°C a possibility in the East Midlands and East Anglia. Not many places above -5°C. Most other models being a bit more conservative with -6/-7°C being the lowest. 

    GFSp 1.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    1 minute ago, ML1996 said:

    GFSp suggesting what would be the coldest night in lowland England so far this winter. -10°C a possibility in the East Midlands and East Anglia. Not many places above -5°C. Most other models being a bit more conservative with -6/-7°C being the lowest. 

    GFSp 1.gif

    Interesting chart and why that slight less cold area from the Thames into Wiltshire..  cloudy and another streamer chance!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

    GFS, GFS(p) and GEM 12z runs are all showing the possibility of a snow event next Monday. Arpege 12z is showing a snow event as early as Sunday.❄️

    GFS:
    350A5D5E-7CA9-4DDB-9517-068DF1BBDE3C.thumb.png.bfbdf0ab13694499750700c71b25c47f.png

    GFS(p):

    5617968F-997C-4F6D-AAD6-6A4CD3E402BD.thumb.png.0ef3d90bd4c172a5978118117ae93078.png

    GEM:
    F8153FB4-FD8C-47E1-BD0B-8E585EFC49FE.thumb.png.bc86a0cd194c2da3211c79051e260cd1.png

    Arpege:

    60B89C11-3903-4B9D-999A-2E54C723D58F.thumb.png.0c47fffa831e3625920525e2d8c4ae0d.png

     

    I likey!!hopefully it stalls then fizzles out or pushes back west!!that would be perfect!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    If we can mantain a southerly or southeasterly ahead of mondays front then it should be all snow on monday for england at least!!!even 850s of 0 will be enough with cold surface air in place and drier continental winds!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Rugeley, Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Frost, snow, thunderstorms, sunshine, intense heat
  • Location: Rugeley, Staffordshire
    3 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

    This is why I don't get the excitement with Easterlies. Little Snow for the majority of the UK and nowhere near the severe cold from years ago.

    Let's hope we get that renewed Easterly next week then! This would do nicely

    GFSp2.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall

    Out of interest what happened with the GFS(P) I haven't seen been posted in quite some time? Has it upgraded again 

    Another question though UKMO is too far east is it better then this morning's?

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

    Out of interest what happened with the GFS(P) I haven't seen been posted in quite some time? Has it upgraded again 

    Another question though UKMO is too far east is it better then this morning's?

    Same as before, was just a server data issue with sending the files, it verifies marginally better than the OP to day 5 and marginally worse after day 5.

    Ukmo is too far east but has moved a bit to the GFS solution.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, nick sussex said:

    This is the benefit of the colder air making more progress into mainland Europe than originally forecast . So any flow off northern France ne towards Belgium and the Low Countries will bring in lowish dew points 

    Northern France had quite a lot of snow yesterday and that also helps .

    Nick i love these kinda moments on the model thread!!really nerve wracking times!!!i really wish ecm could move towards gfs a little bit!!dont even want the full wack even a little towards the gfs and maybe we still in it for real!!although the full wack would be good😜

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    15 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Love GFSp !  This is what I’m after..sliders! 

    24A44D34-DF02-4149-85DE-811B9AD6DEB5.png

     

    17 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Gem thinking about rejoining the cold party.

    Look at the difference between its last run.

    FI is really early atm

    gemnh-0-126 (1).png

    gemnh-0-138 (1).png

     

    3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Nick i love these kinda moments on the model thread!!really nerve wracking times!!!i really wish ecm could move towards gfs a little bit!!dont even want the full wack even a little towards the gfs and maybe we still in it for real!!although the full wack would be good😜

    Sheikhy may love these moments, but some of us might have been hoping for a quieter more benign spell to recover from the last couple of weeks (more like months to be honest). 

    If the ECM shows any interest shortly and the gem shifts more tomorrow, I might buy into it (who am I kidding? Here we go again 😜). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    3 minutes ago, Griff said:

     

     

    Sheikhy may love these moments, but some of us might have been hoping for a quieter more benign spell to recover from the last couple of weeks (more like months to be honest). 

    If the ECM shows any interest shortly and the gem shifts more tomorrow, I might buy into it (who am I kidding? Here we go again 😜). 

    Was gona say where the heck has the real giff gone👀!!!!i get what you mean though mentally this can be quiet tiring!!!like i said last week we should be getting paid for doing this its like a full time job🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    In the words of Lenny Kravitz: "It ain't over 'till it's over"!

    The models were showing a freezing easterly a few days ago, starting from this weekend. The models then dropped it, but maybe they were too keen with that, and are now backing away from a return to mild?

    Fascinating times!

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