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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

    Well the ECM Anomaly Chart for sea level pressure, Mondays run and Thursdays run of this week, for Week beginning 22nd. Core of the High Pressure anomaly extending slightly further south on latest output. The  temperate anomaly is moving to nearer average on latest run, from the slightly colder than average in the east on Mondays output.

    On Monday 8th it predicted Surface pressure anomoly

    image.thumb.png.ff14df7e630af5b00311bb939e37c2fb.png

    Today Friday 12th it predicts

    image.thumb.png.7995c6575d28b51c332c8c72e3c7e0d7.png

    Monday 8th Rainfall Prediction 

    image.thumb.png.8926837576c87882d62bbb6b35029b09.png

    And Todays Rainfall Anomaly, mercifully for farmers and industrious people who rely on clement weather, shows a better signal for some drying out in the West over average.

    image.thumb.png.2d21b590c11f281bcf75622280f64728.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    1 minute ago, yamkin said:

    Interesting CFS model updated trend for next Wednesday 17th Feb. HP setting in allowing a very cold feed to commence (As Always: Subject To Change)

    362659558_01_CFS0ZZ50012_02.2021For17_02.2021_6pm.thumb.png.41423223980234fa5b304c237fdf5420.png

     

    Following the CFS trend for the 18th Feb, HP is more established with a very cold feed flowing towards the eastern part of the UK (As Always: Subject To Change)

    189562633_02_CFS0ZZ50012_02.2021For18_02.2021_6pm.thumb.png.7f1c2b0517b2001ea089954f18337fbb.png

     

    Continuing the CFS trend for the 19th Feb, HP again is established with a very cold feed especially to the UK's E & SE (As Always: Subject To Change)

    2057519158_03_CFS0ZZ50012_02.2021For19_02.2021_6pm.thumb.png.9100768f5fce891bdb04e089e1711ed4.png

    Will we have to pin all our hopes on the CFS. Never thought I'd be saying that since it is the Computer Fantasy Scenario's model

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    Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
    2 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    Will we have to pin all our hopes on the CFS. Never thought I'd be saying that since it is the Computer Fantasy Scenario's model

    I have been following the CFS model for a few months in preparation for this winter and I have been very impressed so far. Nothing is guaranteed, so let's see what unfolds

    Edited by yamkin
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    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe
    3 minutes ago, yamkin said:

    I have been following the CFS model for a few months in preparation for this winter and I have been very impressed so far. Nothing is guaranteed, so let's see what unfolds

    A while ago but if anyone remembers the winter forecasts I was doing the CFS was going for a cold February and March with the most negative CET anomalies for these months. Is this CFS sticking to its guns on this one?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    29 minutes ago, Downburst said:

    Well the ECM Anomaly Chart for sea level pressure, Mondays run and Thursdays run of this week, for Week beginning 22nd. Core of the High Pressure anomaly extending slightly further south on latest output. The  temperate anomaly is moving to nearer average on latest run, from the slightly colder than average in the east on Mondays output.

    On Monday 8th it predicted Surface pressure anomoly

    image.thumb.png.ff14df7e630af5b00311bb939e37c2fb.png

    Today Friday 12th it predicts

    image.thumb.png.7995c6575d28b51c332c8c72e3c7e0d7.png

    Monday 8th Rainfall Prediction 

    image.thumb.png.8926837576c87882d62bbb6b35029b09.png

    And Todays Rainfall Anomaly, mercifully for farmers and industrious people who rely on clement weather, shows a better signal for some drying out in the West over average.

    image.thumb.png.2d21b590c11f281bcf75622280f64728.png

     

    I commented last night that the latest EC46 didn't look quite as good from a cold perspective as Monday's update.  However, the blocking remains.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    42 minutes ago, Don said:

    That doesn't look like a Barlett high to me and overly mild either, although with a strengthening sun it may feel pleasant during the day with night frosts?

    The mean upper flow for that period is Southwesterly... thats just about as mild as you can get! like it or not.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    8 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    The mean upper flow for that period is Southwesterly... thats just about as mild as you can get! like it or not.

     

    You have far more knowledge than I do, so I take that on board!

    We will just have to see and what will be will be!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

    The Return of the Beast from the East ! 

    Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released !

    They’re thinking of perhaps putting out a trailer this evening !

    Indeed, and thats beyond what the NOAA charts are comfortable with, itll be interesting to see, over the next few days, whether those charts support a Scandinavian high. But currently they dont.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
    9 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Interestingly P6 and the OP have a few friends joining them now.

    @feb1991blizzard

    gfs-london-gb-515n-0e (1) (27).jpeg

    Yes jff it was the operational run i was commenting on BS.A wide scatter on those ens from day 6 and looking for instance at the  day 6 charts for all 3 at the same time frame it's all down to how the jet splits against the block. 

    gfseu-0-138.thumb.png.19e7d49f2a0e11cd68a17204f2fedf05.pngECE1-144.thumb.gif.72d73d336d5cef58b2b5024b8089a132.gif1414296764_UE144-21(2).thumb.gif.902f72737d5a0905e45bae75ec8f253d.gif

    On those the uk chart looks the most promising in getting some energy going se.If that trend is supported better in future runs then a quicker return to cold would likely follow.

    Interestingly though the other operational suites evolve that way in the end so those colder ens members may be pointing the way.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Knaphill, Surrey (57m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, big storms and extreme weather
  • Location: Knaphill, Surrey (57m ASL)
    6 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

    What I have been trying out (just to aid my understanding) is to take NOAA 500MB Height Chart for a period such as this one for the 17-21 Feb issued yesterday:

    image.thumb.png.2bb67f5104a1fa4fa4c0ac88fcaafc36.png

    then I look through the 500MB hPA Wind charts on WZ for instance to find one in that period that seems to match it as near as poss such as this one for the 19th Feb:

    image.thumb.png.ba747d5d2f4e25f92c6e6b4585fc7b8c.png

    Then I look to see what the 500MB Geop Height chart looks like for the same timeframe:

    image.thumb.png.9a06a38fa071a8752711ecb729638d3f.png

    Gives a good idea of what it could look like at the surface.

    All very subjective of course as there are several patterns that could fit the NOAA chart through that period with much different surface conditions!

    Now checking the NOAA 8-14 day chart:

    image.thumb.png.c4e163d772067cd173c9b9bc40f9fb43.png

    A fairly similar 500hPA Wind chart for the 23rd:

    image.thumb.png.5ac18b9a87eab6260f7953b5858a8f6d.png

    And 500hPa Height chart for the 23rd:

    image.thumb.png.c55188667a9020bf262bc609d43a7cb0.png

    If (and it's a big IF) those are correct then you could surmise that the GFS is developing the right pattern currently.

    I have no idea if this is a valid way to interpret the various charts but will be fun to keep track of it to see how successful it is 🙂 

    image.png

    Brilliant WW. This is what I was chatting with @johnholmes last month whereas I was suggesting matching the closest permutation to the 500s, but your idea is a much better way of matching it using the jet. Great stuff 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Small point of order but this is more of a UK/Euro High than a Bartlett, the pattern is still pretty amplified rather than zonal from the south west.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    23 minutes ago, wiltshire weather said:

    What I have been trying out (just to aid my understanding) is to take NOAA 500MB Height Chart for a period such as this one for the 17-21 Feb issued yesterday:

    image.thumb.png.2bb67f5104a1fa4fa4c0ac88fcaafc36.png

    then I look through the 500MB hPA Wind charts on WZ for instance to find one in that period that seems to match it as near as poss such as this one for the 19th Feb:

    image.thumb.png.ba747d5d2f4e25f92c6e6b4585fc7b8c.png

    Then I look to see what the 500MB Geop Height chart looks like for the same timeframe:

    image.thumb.png.9a06a38fa071a8752711ecb729638d3f.png

    Gives a good idea of what it could look like at the surface.

    All very subjective of course as there are several patterns that could fit the NOAA chart through that period with much different surface conditions!

    Now checking the NOAA 8-14 day chart:

    image.thumb.png.c4e163d772067cd173c9b9bc40f9fb43.png

    A fairly similar 500hPA Wind chart for the 23rd:

    image.thumb.png.5ac18b9a87eab6260f7953b5858a8f6d.png

    And 500hPa Height chart for the 23rd:

    image.thumb.png.c55188667a9020bf262bc609d43a7cb0.png

    If (and it's a big IF) those are correct then you could surmise that the GFS is developing the right pattern currently.

    I have no idea if this is a valid way to interpret the various charts but will be fun to keep track of it to see how successful it is 🙂 

     

    Thats more or less the method i employ for my blogs.... view the NOAAs first then pattern match to the nearest GFS or ECM run. Ive been doing this for several years now, and given that sometimes you are going to be wrong, it still has a very high success rate. We blogged about this cold spell ten days in advance, because of what the anomalies were suggesting, and its pretty standard now to identify the emerging pattern 7-11 days in advance.

    Trust me, if you want to know whats really likely to happen and not get lead up the garden path, this method for this timeframe cannot be beaten IMHO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM ensembles D11-D15 seem to say dry, dry, dry. None of the clusters look particularly warm. Though cluster 3 has enough of a trough underneath the northern ridge to allow an easterly with wintry interest.

    image.thumb.png.f12ebb7679c0814d9603c2ab7e91799f.png

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    Posted
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
    3 hours ago, jules216 said:

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me under cold side of the High Pressure with mainly N to NW winds.With fresh snowfall Frost and sun will be plenty.Best spell of Weather since January 2017. EC monthly is a dream,settled and cold the spring after March 8th. How it looks here today this morning(-21.5C 50cm+Snow)

     

     

    IMG_20210212_085001.jpg

    IMG_20210212_084804.jpg

    render-worker-commands-69c6db9bf8-q9bw6-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-NxNuV1.png

    render-worker-commands-69c6db9bf8-l44ns-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-s1jVr5.png

    render-worker-commands-69c6db9bf8-mzv6z-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-QpyWjN.png

    Screenshot_2021-02-12-10-14-19-622_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Screenshot_2021-02-12-09-56-09-735_com.android.chrome.jpg

    Green with envy!

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    Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl

    Looking at the GFS 6z for midday today, it does look like it's called the start of the East West battle about right. Be interesting if it does play out as models suggest.

    Will be an interesting 48 hrs watching the battle commence 

    Screenshot_20210212-140749_Chrome.jpg

    Screenshot_20210212-134150_Chrome.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    Just now, Allseasons-si said:

    The 12z ICON is a vast improvement on this morning's...😍

    12z 138 v's 00z 144.

    iconnh-0-138.thumb.png.1508918adee22863dc7f85887e640922.pngiconnh-0-144.thumb.png.5caeee257807e21edc329df9e34b606f.png

    Very ukmo like.. could be exciting when that comes out at 4.

    More westwards adjustments please!

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    2 hours ago, wiltshire weather said:

    What I have been trying out (just to aid my understanding) is to take NOAA 500MB Height Chart for a period such as this one for the 17-21 Feb issued yesterday:

    image.thumb.png.2bb67f5104a1fa4fa4c0ac88fcaafc36.png

    then I look through the 500MB hPA Wind charts on WZ for instance to find one in that period that seems to match it as near as poss such as this one for the 19th Feb:

    image.thumb.png.ba747d5d2f4e25f92c6e6b4585fc7b8c.png

    Then I look to see what the 500MB Geop Height chart looks like for the same timeframe:

    image.thumb.png.9a06a38fa071a8752711ecb729638d3f.png

    Gives a good idea of what it could look like at the surface.

    All very subjective of course as there are several patterns that could fit the NOAA chart through that period with much different surface conditions!

    Now checking the NOAA 8-14 day chart:

    image.thumb.png.c4e163d772067cd173c9b9bc40f9fb43.png

    A fairly similar 500hPA Wind chart for the 23rd:

    image.thumb.png.5ac18b9a87eab6260f7953b5858a8f6d.png

    And 500hPa Height chart for the 23rd:

    image.thumb.png.c55188667a9020bf262bc609d43a7cb0.png

    If (and it's a big IF) those are correct then you could surmise that the GFS is developing the right pattern currently.

    I have no idea if this is a valid way to interpret the various charts but will be fun to keep track of it to see how successful it is 🙂 

     

    I like that WW, a very constructive way of trying to link those charts to the GFS 4x daily. Like you say it is not foolproof but so much better than relying on the synoptic GFS output on its own. Perhaps you might try to compare the ECMWF 2x daily output. Keep doing it, not just in winter but for summer patterns, hot plumes etc, you may be able to pick them out at times. Great to see someone using the 500 anomaly charts, perhaps others might be tempted as you post and they see how you progress.

    Thank you for another way of using them-good luck

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    UKMO 144, a different solution. We get an undercut of sorts, but to far north. Scandi high replaced by the Arctic ridge.

    31EA1F59-C67B-437C-9FE1-98B3CDC896B8.thumb.gif.0262608af1dc314560292872501b8b81.gif

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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