Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 10/02/21


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Once again ECM parallel flying the flag at day 10

    image.thumb.png.4fe4f48c38897290726d11020bab44fd.pngimage.thumb.png.10a7a2dd1d7bcf0e5b1cfbd39596ffec.png

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3.1k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    ICON 6z is more amplified than it's 0z run, especially over the Atlantic.

    6z image.thumb.png.ccb311104cddb4245ea0be7566d03d98.png 0z image.thumb.png.683cea9c5b88acf00733aa90055bdf10.png

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Scunthorpe
  • Location: Scunthorpe

    A quite detailed look at the models from yesterday's 12z runs through to today's 00z runs, particularly focusing on the period between 16th and 20th February where that small dip in the ensemble average appears. This is me looking for upgrades to possible cold for mid to late next week.

    12z GFS

    Here is the 12z GFS with all runs removed that don't get down to -5 at 850hpa or lower between the 16th and 20th

    12zGFScold16to20.thumb.png.21f9480e3b8b5965a125cee98d000628.png

    This just leaves 10 of the 32 runs that do so even if it is for just 1 timeframe. Below we have a table showing all 10 of these runs 850hpa values at all timeframes between 16th at 00:00 and 20th at 00:00. The average coldest is on the left to the least cold on the right.

    12zGFStable.thumb.png.77aafb7d32fea00ce89e56e2d7382fd4.png

    12z GEM

    How does the 12z GEM compare with the GFS in the same run effectively. Well the big news for 12z GEM is that none of the runs get to -5 or below at 850hpa between 16th and 20th so GFS wins the 12z round fair and square here

    18z GFS

    How does 18z GFS compare to the 12z GFS and is it an upgrade or downgrade to the 12z. First we have the 18z GFS with all runs removed that don't get down to -5 at 850hpa or lower between the 16th and 20th

    18zGFScold16to20.thumb.png.e2c6eff3603fa355632d85fb76dc40f0.png

    This just leaves 5 of the 32 runs that do so even for just 1 timeframe. This is a big downgrade from the GFS between 12z and 18z so looking less likely that we will get any cold weather next week now, big X GFS after this big downgrade. As before we have a table showing these 5 runs with coldest on the left and least cold on the right

    18zGFStable.thumb.png.76bdbe962c41f30b32cf7ef4c99f29b2.png

    00z GFS

    After a big downgrade by the GFS between its 12z and 18z runs lets hope for a reverse of this trend between 18z and 00z for the 16th to 20th period. Here is the ensemble chart with only the runs showing that dip to -5 or below at 850hpa at some point between the 16th and 20th.

    00zGFScold16to20.thumb.png.fa8733441c0f4da080fadf98b9387042.png

    A slight upgrade from the 18z with 7 runs that achieve the requirement of at least -5 at 850hpa at some point between the 16th and 20th February. Below we have the table showing these runs and their 850hpa temps between these points with the coldest on the left and least cold on the right as always

    00zGFStable.thumb.png.1c740360e8aa914f6f3623ecfd612002.png

    00z GEM

    After the disaster 12z GEM which had none of its members at or below -5 at 850hpa between 16th and 20th February can the 00z rescue itself or can it be one for the bin too in the same time period. Looks like GEM remains very much in the bin with yet again 0 runs at or below in the time period given

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    An improvement in the early stages of the GFS 06 hrs run.

    A sharper upstream trough , now with a shortwave trying to eject se at T138 hrs .

    It doesn’t manage to do that and so any ridging to the ne is unable to add some better forcing onto the upstream troughing .

    Theres a big difference in any evolution if energy disrupts se so I think some added interest this evening to see whether the models might improve on that front .

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    An improvement in the early stages of the GFS 06 hrs run.

    A sharper upstream trough , now with a shortwave trying to eject se at T138 hrs .

    It doesn’t manage to do that and so any ridging to the ne is unable to add some better forcing onto the upstream troughing .

    Theres a big difference in any evolution if energy disrupts se so I think some added interest this evening to see whether the models might improve on that front .

    It might still do the business on this run, albeit in deep FI, profile to the NE better with shallower heights, probably a close miss, maybe a little light powder for the SE although you never know, PV probably a bit too strong to the NW with too much forcing and not great angle of tilt, but wouldn't rule out a potent blast at 300+ completely.

    image.thumb.png.75b336f71541dd392206f37c50a85ad3.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    Well these charts didnt develop in the way i had thought they might, the blocking to our North has weakend and the ridging to our South increased...

    Theres nothing cold on this chart IF it verifies, say hello to uncle Barty, because IF that forms, itll go nowhere fast, . Im aware that the strat still might have other ideas, but IMHO the pendulum has swung away for any more deep cold and is heading towards Spring.

     

    814day.03spring.gif

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Cross-model and inter-model support for the next 8-days or so as we see an Arctic high develop and drive a trough into Eastern Europe:

    d0-8>anim_tzk4.gif

    The axis of the Arctic high means that any nascent surface high developing at high lat from the Iberian WAA is forced south, ergo no establishment of HLB'ing. After d9 we lose the Arctic high and the forcing from the plume to our south can drive further north without that trough pushing against it:

    anim_qxi1.gif

    So a holding period for around 10-days and we will see if we can develop that pattern?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Location: Wolverhampton

    Eye oop, some eyes will light up at this (Not mine!) - yet! :- 

    image.thumb.png.8ad11e8ec3fa8a68b41e994c986f5042.png

    Edited by DIS1970
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Gets there eventually although with similar uppers to recently, really need circa -14c by end Feb.

    image.thumb.png.8a853cc2dfd5fee0c9c333de61d0c15c.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Gets there eventually although with similar uppers to recently, really need circa -14c by end Feb.

    image.thumb.png.8a853cc2dfd5fee0c9c333de61d0c15c.png

    Would we see more convection than this week though with a stronger sun?  🤔

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wolverhampton
  • Location: Wolverhampton
    Just now, Tim Bland said:

    It’s coming folks 😍

    C0967092-659B-419C-B940-53840436DC35.png

    53B4A2EF-F5F6-4BE1-B428-921D7327DC63.png

    Has been known to snow around my birthday quite often - early March.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Gets there eventually although with similar uppers to recently, really need circa -14c by end Feb.

    image.thumb.png.8a853cc2dfd5fee0c9c333de61d0c15c.png

    Winter is not over yet then?😜😜🥰🥰

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    25 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    An improvement in the early stages of the GFS 06 hrs run.

    A sharper upstream trough , now with a shortwave trying to eject se at T138 hrs .

    It doesn’t manage to do that and so any ridging to the ne is unable to add some better forcing onto the upstream troughing .

    Theres a big difference in any evolution if energy disrupts se so I think some added interest this evening to see whether the models might improve on that front .

    The control does eject the shortwave nick, but upstream issues prevent any quick route to cold.

    However a big chunk on the gefs are trying to pull out a quicker route at 168.

    I've also attached para, which shows the @mushymanrob option from the anomalies.

     

    gensnh-2-1-168.png

    gensnh-3-1-168.png

    gensnh-6-1-168.png

    gensnh-12-1-168.png

    gensnh-19-1-168.png

    gensnh-22-1-168.png

    gensnh-28-1-168.png

    gensnh-29-1-168.png

    GFSPARAEU06_246_1.png

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    I'm feeling a little more optimistic guys..would like to see that GFS evolution grow over the next few days a be brought forward a tad..But we are gonna be prone to Blocking when the Atlantic is dead. Just what on earth happened to it.. So most definitely interest in the final 3rd of this month.

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
    7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    If that’s Uncle Barty then it’s a weird looking one ! The Bartlett high wouldn’t have that set up . And Mushy you should know better then to utter those words in here ! Lol 

    I know but its close enough for me, its easier then saying high to our south!, lol. But its a lot closer to a bartlett then a scandinavian high, in essence, mild not cold. But that chart may not verify..

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: waltham abbey, essex 142ft a.s.l
  • Location: waltham abbey, essex 142ft a.s.l
    6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The Return of the Beast from the East ! 

    Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released !

    They’re thinking of perhaps putting out a trailer this evening !

    Sequel of the year! Lol

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    06z GFS suggestive that the Meto long ranger is on to something.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    38 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    If that’s Uncle Barty then it’s a weird looking one ! The Bartlett high wouldn’t have that set up . And Mushy you should know better then to utter those words in here ! Lol 

    That doesn't look like a Barlett high to me and overly mild either, although with a strengthening sun it may feel pleasant during the day with night frosts?

    Edited by Don
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    • Paul locked and unpinned this topic
    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 4

      High pressure rules, but still chilly out the sun & watch out for a few showers

      High pressure in charge for the rest of the week but the airmass will be chilly, so feeling nippy out of the sun. Not entirely dry either, with scattered showers around the next few days, especially in the west. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      You'll need your coat because it's still cold out of the sun

      More April snow for Monday morning with a widespread frost. If you have outdoor plans this week, the chill in the air remains especially once the sun goes down. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...