Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion 10/02/21


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    GEFS 18z are a good match with the EC46.

    The latest EC46 is showing a coldish week 2 and 3.  Not seen the rest of the run.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3.1k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    6 minutes ago, Don said:

    The latest EC46 is showing a coldish week 2 and 3.  Not seen the rest of the run.

    Yes - image.thumb.png.c737373464702d8527ac698fc7fc6ae0.png

     

    image.png.676067d5d5733096a1d2390f7123d6e7.png

    image.png.e712cfd93b8f71892b32edbed3d95677.png

    Surface cold not frigid though - yet.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    2 hours ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Ukmo at 144,

    pretty consistent from yesterday, maybe a bit weaker pressure in Scandi, and the trough a little bit nearer to the UK

     

    UN144-21 (1) (19).gif

    UN144-21 (1) (20).gif

    Considering the over night runs are consistently dog poo, it's an improvement, 

    Let's look for a better day, and good 12z

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Pretty ordinary output this morning.  There are indications that we might finally get there on the ECM and ECM para but it’s messy, tortuous and slow with lots of hurdles to cross.

    Edited by mulzy
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    13 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Pretty ordinary output this morning.  There are indications that we might finally get there on the ECM and ECM para but it’s messy, tortuous and slow with lots of hurdles to cross.

    240 attached for both runs, Para preferred

    Hopefully the EPS will improve this time 

    ECH1-240 (14).gif

    ECH1-240 (13).gif

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    Why are the 0z runs nearly always the most progressive? Is there some sort of bias built in, because it happens far too often for it to be a random quirk.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    5 minutes ago, bumpydogz said:

    It's a myth.

    I'd like to think so too, but you can't deny how often they seem to be the most progressive suite.

    Anyone else looking forward to some spring warmth currently suggested by the models?

    Edited by Djdazzle
    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex
  • Location: Cold Rain City, Essex

    Starting to look like deep cold may be done for this year. Perhaps a tame beast towards the end of Feb?

    Thanks for all the excellent posts and analysis. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    5 minutes ago, Robbie Coldrain said:

    Starting to look like deep cold may be done for this year. Perhaps a tame beast towards the end of Feb?

    Thanks for all the excellent posts and analysis. 

    Never say never - but unlike a lot on here, I would take spring warmth over cold in March any day of the week! Deep cold should be reserved for winter only.

    The EC46 are hinting that cold may not be a completely done deal though.

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
    17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Not the sharpness to the upstream troughing this morning .

    So chances of a quicker return to some colder conditions looks unlikely although the trend is still to develop some blocking to the east and ne.

    Quite a large spread on the ECM ensembles further east , looking at the orientation of that in terms of 850s a cluster of solutions have that cold angled more favourably towards the UK.

    I think the earliest we could see some greater interest is realistically days 9 onwards so the last week of February.

    It does look drier regardless , blocking is very much a firm favourite but still too early to know whether that will bring more springlike conditions or whether it will set up in a way to bring some deeper cold .

    ECM certainly has a spring like look to it in the latter stages. If it stays clear, a large diurnal range. Feeling mild in the afternoon sun but sharp frosts overnight.  Surface cold yes but deep cold looks just out of reach currently. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    3 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

    ECM certainly has a spring like look to it in the latter stages. If it stays clear, a large diurnal range. Feeling mild in the afternoon sun but sharp frosts overnight.  Surface cold yes but deep cold looks just out of reach currently. 

    I think in terms of any deeper cold still a bit too early to rule that out . Although a quick return is unlikely the actual block set up to the ne is more favourable today although whether the pattern can back sufficiently west is the bigger question .

     

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Very Cold, Very Snowy
  • Location: Midlands
    1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

    I think in terms of any deeper cold still a bit too early to rule that out . Although a quick return is unlikely the actual block set up to the ne is more favourable today although whether the pattern can back sufficiently west is the bigger question .

     

    Don't disagree, was referring to a snapshot of day 10. Hopefully this is something to watch in the upcoming output.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Central Beds
  • Location: Central Beds

    ECM certainly looking less cold and dare I say it a welcome introduction to spring.  I’m certainly not seeing any return to deep cold conditions in the models now.  Plenty of high pressure though to give us some nice dry sunny weather.    
     

    It’s certainly been a fantastic winter of model watching that’s for sure.  


     

     

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    I think in terms of any deeper cold still a bit too early to rule that out . Although a quick return is unlikely the actual block set up to the ne is more favourable today although whether the pattern can back sufficiently west is the bigger question .

     

    I agree . The UKMO chart at 144t shows a resurgence of the deeper cold air over Southern Norway. 

    C

    • Like 8
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    9 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    I agree . The UKMO chart at 144t shows a resurgence of the deeper cold air over Southern Norway. 

    C

    I have no issues with this I agree and ECM // strikingly similar

    image.thumb.png.d8e61d2a0e0f7220ea78ed90f9e3279c.pngUKMO

    image.thumb.png.32776235d12724b8c7f774bc9496614a.png

    ECM//

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    Update on anomaly charts on Friday 12 February

    Ec-gfs and both show much as the past few days, a general westerly flow over the chart until the marked trough coming out of between Canada and Greenland and in the direction of Iberia  with ridging out of northern Scandinavia north to jan meyen and north then into the deep trough down to the black sea.

    Noaa 6-10 is pretty much a copy of the other two and its 8-14 similar.

    So major change in temperature levels with a sw flow at 500 into the uk for the foreseeable. A chance for some warmer weather from the frigid values of recent days. It also looks fairly unsettled/changeable but the detail, as always, will be given by the synoptic outputs. Hopefully some dry days with warm sunshine would be my request!

     

     

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    All looks a bit underwhelming this morning, but nothing is a given at the moment.  I for one am hoping for another cold shot late February into March as I like others have yet to see much snow, despite it being a cold winter.  This winter has reminded me of 1995/96 in some ways in the sense that I saw no substantial snow then either in what was an even colder winter!

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    • Paul locked and unpinned this topic
    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    • Cold waves hitting Europe continue to threaten growers, is there a link to climate change?

      Much of Europe, not just the UK, has experienced unseasonably cold weather since the Easter Weekend. A plunge of cold arctic air brought by northerly winds early last week brought several nights of frost and even snow across large swathes of Europe, followed by another wave of cold arctic air spreads across much of Europe this week. The frosts causing damage to new growth in vineyards and orchardsa0spurred on by a late March heatwave, the vineyards of France werea0particularly badly affected.

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 4

      High pressure rules, but still chilly out the sun & watch out for a few showers

      High pressure in charge for the rest of the week but the airmass will be chilly, so feeling nippy out of the sun. Not entirely dry either, with scattered showers around the next few days, especially in the west. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      You'll need your coat because it's still cold out of the sun

      More April snow for Monday morning with a widespread frost. If you have outdoor plans this week, the chill in the air remains especially once the sun goes down. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...