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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Disappointingly, the extended mean EPS has not moved much (yet).  Need to get lower heights into Europe and we’re in business.  Let’s hope for better tomorrow.

    Edited by mulzy
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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    No time for the usual blah tonight so just a quick look at the main charts at T+120, T+180 and T+240 from (respectively) GEM, GFS OP, GFS Parallel and ECM

    T+120 - Tuesday 15th:

    image.thumb.png.20fe692f52716f6bf9cac094822aa48c.pngimage.thumb.png.0bc7dd72765ce283703dd6d33fc26fbb.pngimage.thumb.png.7def9cb0c6888b0c4c35932400e2769f.pngimage.thumb.png.3edfcf715e8945c62e754b69a85ea353.png

    T+180 (T+192 for ECM):

    image.thumb.png.692d5b2c28a1a64f36cfa2e6618d88f7.pngimage.thumb.png.33b9e65e1adcbb35712f917e2706b173.pngimage.thumb.png.9b5334b7e440f140db4f223171cd8933.pngimage.thumb.png.1a150b0d59bb80f808f622c628d1f753.png

    T+240: Saturday 20th:

    image.thumb.png.f5a26cbc4a469350136c038912a98e2c.pngimage.thumb.png.0096b21a67540deac5734a3df7a7fafb.pngimage.thumb.png.689949d89da29624679fe209f61382e0.pngimage.thumb.png.694750901d3c3b5573a92b097971637e.png

    Brief thoughts; the cold spell ends on Sunday/Monday and it turns much milder from the south and west. The anticyclonic signal from last evening is a shade more muted and while GFS keep the HP to the south or south east, GEM and ECM build heights back into Scandinavia - both are some way from anything really cold but it's also some way from Atlantic dominance and a zonal jet.  

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    ECM clusters T120-T192:

    BD969E2E-41B3-4017-B4FC-F17DBFF84E69.thumb.png.bd3eece5bbbed66dd74df86a92770d2d.png

    2 of them, the second one allows a bit more air from the east.  But both have scandi block to our north, how far north. I don’t think it is worth looking beyond this timescale at the moment, too much uncertainty.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland 6m Below sea level
    17 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Is the OP still classed as an outlier if it has support from the para run😆

    london_ecmsd850 (17).png

    If the Operational run is the outlier, it may mean something different than any other member that is an outlier.

    Especially now that the second High Resolution run, the operational-to-be paints the same picture.
    The resolution will be what makes the difference. I would not take the ensemble as serious as at other times.

    Tomorrow's 0z and 12z will be very interesting. If they persist in building a Scandi High-like feature, expect the ensembles to flip later.

    Exciting times, still!
    I felt a bit of model fatigue, now that the cold has arrived here, with snow and ice.
    Being outside, walking in the snow, taking photos, and today, finally, ice-skating, is way more fun than the ever changing FI. But with a milder interlude, it's nice to see a possible cold reload.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, Griff said:

    ECM zonal latest... 

    20210211201913-ad7e6122979fff28f473e1323a2e5d24d228e36b.png

     

    15 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Weeks 2 and 3 certainly look chilly/cold on the ECM weeklies.

     

    20210211200352-361fe7e960408167d8474e6c66389736a364eb56.png

    20210211200357-4d127e233ad8708f2cf681ae68d88a979dd6bf0b.png

    20210211200208-8d72313c440a4713245f12c4bf32877148e479ba.png

    20210211200213-57e77ec6a7b66eb47d09d4ffc7490a5d5277b0ca.png

    ECM zonal is also out of course, no idea here how the strat and trop coupling is behaving mind... 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL

    Evening all

    Lots on here have had a great winter....for lots it had been very frustrating. What would be the best set up for delivering a country wide fall? Even if it is not long lasting?? Any particular set ups that deliver the goods more so than others?

    Cheers

    WW

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    35 minutes ago, Griff said:

     

    ECM zonal is also out of course, no idea here how the strat and trop coupling is behaving mind... 

    How do you read these zonal wind speed plots? Presumably blue lines are the wind speeds from each ensemble but What are the 3 red lines? Is the centre line climatological average ? 

    B8A204DB-A997-4EC8-8954-E3B545635C5F.png

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    How do you read these zonal wind speed plots? Presumably blue lines are the wind speeds from each ensemble but What are the 3 red lines? Is the centre line climatological average ? 

    B8A204DB-A997-4EC8-8954-E3B545635C5F.png

    ‘Zonal mean zonal wind at 10hPa for 60N (60S for SH). Thin blue lines represent the individual ensemble members, thick blue line the ensemble mean; red lines show the mean and the 10th and 90th percentile of the model climate.

    A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event is characterized by a rapid deceleration in stratospheric circumpolar westerly winds and a significant warming of the polar cap region. SSWs have a significant impact on the tropospheric circulation. Following a SSW, there can be an equatorward shift of the tropospheric jet with associated cold conditions in the Northern Hemisphere winter over northern Europe and warm conditions over north-eastern Canada and Greenland (Baldwin, M. P., and T. J. Dunkerton, 1999). Because extended-range skill is higher when there is a SSW in the forecast initial conditions (Tripathi et al. 2015), SSW events are a potential source of predictability. During a SSW event, the ensemble (blue) will be close to the low (more negative) extreme of the model climate (lower red line).’

     

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    I hadn’t realised that there was an ec para and eps running ...checking back the last few para ops shows much stronger support for a scandi ridge of sorts than the current op has shown ......

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Weeks 2 and 3 certainly look chilly/cold on the ECM weeklies.

     

    20210211200352-361fe7e960408167d8474e6c66389736a364eb56.png

    20210211200357-4d127e233ad8708f2cf681ae68d88a979dd6bf0b.png

    20210211200208-8d72313c440a4713245f12c4bf32877148e479ba.png

    20210211200213-57e77ec6a7b66eb47d09d4ffc7490a5d5277b0ca.png

    Perhaps not such a good update as Mondays but could be a lot worse.  Week 2 looks dry and chilly, whereas week 3 perhaps holds a bit more interest?

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Old adage GFS does well spotting height rises to the NW, and ECM height rises to the NE/E. With this in mind note ECM is showing a trend to heights building strongly again to our east blocking off the atlantic before it had any time to get its act together. GFS not a million miles off same scenario but is showing more energy off the eastern seaboard and we retain a mild S/SW flow.

    As others have said, perhaps a few mild days before turning colder again. It will feel very spring like early in the new week compared to this week. 

    In the very short term, weekend looking rather messy, tomorrow another cold day many places only just climbing above freezing, another very cold night Friday, Saturday looking very cold for many, alot of high level cloud above trapped cold surface air, I would not be surprised if a fair few places record an ice day, frontal feature moving in from the west fizzling out as it does so, western parts may see a few hours of moderate snow. Saturday night cold in central and eastern parts but temps at or just above freezing. Sunday day of transition, still cold in the east, milder and wet in the west, might be some freezing rain initially as the cold surface air is finally mixed out.

     

    Edited by damianslaw
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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, Don said:

    Perhaps not such a good update as Mondays but could be a lot worse.  Week 2 looks dry and chilly, whereas week 3 perhaps holds a bit more interest?

    The important thing is it shows a blocked picture, the placement of the high will ebb and flow in week 2 and 3.

    @bluearmy can you see the 12z para EPS?

    It's not updated on meteociel so far

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    5 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    The important thing is it shows a blocked picture, the placement of the high will ebb and flow in week 2 and 3.

    @bluearmy can you see the 12z para EPS?

    It's not updated on meteociel so far

    No - don’t see apart from meteociel ....

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 minutes ago, Angus Mcoatup said:

    Let’s hope the models keep the prospect of another colder spell alive for later on in the month!!

    Indeed, some of us have yet to see substantial snow in what has been a 'cold' winter!

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    Posted
  • Location: West of Kings Lynn
  • Location: West of Kings Lynn
    Just now, Don said:

    Indeed, some of us have yet to see substantial snow in what has been a 'cold' winter!

    I’ve had a bit here most of this week,very frosty 🥶 now.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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