Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Neil Harris]

22 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Hi Neil Harris, hard to be sure at the moment considering the big swing in changes that can occur from the models at that time period. But I think there are current signs for things to start warming up over the next 2 weeks. A chance for the weather to become less chillier anyway. Something that the ensembles and, in some ways, the anomaly charts point to.

Some warmer, sunnier, days getting into the mix, such as in late March, would personally be grand over the next week or 2, and certainly beyond.

Edit: Sorry, quoted the wrong person. Meant for Neil Harris

Thank you. Got a couple of days off so hoping to visit a pub garden or two. Will be watching this thread closely

[Dancerwithwings]

2 hours ago, Neil Harris said:

Thank you. Got a couple of days off so hoping to visit a pub garden or two. Will be watching this thread closely

Looking very cool after work Monday in them gardens 

Even the isle of silly is in single figures 

Patio heaters on full please

A slight rise towards the end of next week but still below the mean...Brrrr for April !!!

Edited April 8, 2021 by Dancerwithwings

[Iceman2606]

Looking likely will see another northerly plunge over this weekend bringing cold temperatures, frosty nights and the risk of more snow for some.❄

[Mike Poole]

Not followed the models for a couple of days, GFS 12z looks like a shifting of patterns from Greenland area to Scandi, T96, T144, T192:

Still a fairly cool outlook, but with heights over Scandi we will benefit from the warm up as we go through mid spring if it isn’t there yet.  Much happier with this for summer warmth prospects.

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean I’m sensing some recovery in temperatures during next week, especially from later next week from the south, at least becoming less cold, and that process continues to evolve during the following week when we enter the last third of April...so, the upcoming arctic snap (reload) may be the last of the season..or maybe not? ...but I’m seeing a generally upward curve in surface conditions beyond the colder incursion this weekend which incidentally won’t be as potent as the one we had early this week, especially across the north....of course, I’m only saying this based on the GEFS and realise there’s a lot of other models to take into account.   

 

Edited April 8, 2021 by Jon Snow

[minus10]

Well from Saturday right out to end of the run (with exception of following Monday/Tuesday) the gfs 12z is showing an easterly based patten . Seems incredible although maybe not for this time of year...

After a cool start it does warm up a bit...

 

No sign of any plumes though (yet)....

A cool spring seems the name of the game this year...will be interesting to see the 12z GEFS later..

[Mike Poole]

OK, ECM frame by frame, because I’m bored.

T120, looks like following GFS and building a high pressure over the UK:

Nothing lurking in the Atlantic, note, well story of winter really, issue really is where the high pressures settle.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, and to look at that you have to wonder what will drive our weather going forward:

Does look a bit like a terrier with one eye staring directly at us. 

[Mike Poole]

ECM T168:

Seen enough, i think, the shift towards higher pressure over scandi is here too, might be a cool easterly but if the trend continues for any length of time, decent warm spring weather should follow, in the absence of anything nasty waiting in the wings from the west.  

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240:

I’ll take that!  With the Azores getting involved:

Need to watch this if it turns up on other runs, Azores ridge with little from the atlantic to override it could start to show good portends for late spring and summer.  

[Neilsouth]

Looks like another awful weekend coming  up, do we know how far north that front is going to go traversing into France?

[stodge]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Not followed the models for a couple of days, GFS 12z looks like a shifting of patterns from Greenland area to Scandi, T96, T144, T192:

Still a fairly cool outlook, but with heights over Scandi we will benefit from the warm up as we go through mid spring if it isn’t there yet.  Much happier with this for summer warmth prospects.

 

Yes, well supported across all the models and a distinct change of pattern. The heights get washed out of Greenland and as it's the season for northern blocking quickly set up again in Scandinavia.

JMA this evening at T+240:

Not quite the same in profile as GFS or ECM but the signal for strong heights over Scandinavia has obviously become dominant.

[Mike Poole]

20 minutes ago, stodge said:

Yes, well supported across all the models and a distinct change of pattern. The heights get washed out of Greenland and as it's the season for northern blocking quickly set up again in Scandinavia.

JMA this evening at T+240:

Not quite the same in profile as GFS or ECM but the signal for strong heights over Scandinavia has obviously become dominant.

Yes JMA interesting at T264, thought this didn’t come out til midnight, but hey, signals of Azores scandi link up:

ECM heading the same way at T240:

Pattern change incoming, I think so!  This is what we want to see to set up a good pattern for summer - we don’t have one now, but with charts like these, it could quickly change in good time...we will see...

Edited April 8, 2021 by Mike Poole

[Tim Bland]

47 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

Looks like another awful weekend coming  up, do we know how far north that front is going to go traversing into France?

Looks like a cold wet day in the south east on Saturday, perhaps some sleet on hills in the evening as it clears.  Wintry showers for many on Sunday according to ECM

[damianslaw]

From a long drawn northerly pattern to a long drawn easterly pattern, if this was any other time of year I'd be wary, but in April far more probable. We exchange something notably cold for the time of year for something less cold, but still relatively cold for the time of year..

[Cambrian]

I’m just loving this front, as drawn first on the fax from yesterday for midnight tonight spanning about 65 degrees of longitude west to east, as an apron hanging from the 60 degrees North line of latitude, serving as a warm front at its western end between Canada and Greenland and a cold front for the rest of the Atlantic. Then, from the midnight fax for noon tomorrow, despite the mid-Atlantic high asserting itself and snapping it in two, it has the last laugh becoming a 100% cold front and spreading out as it sinks south, still pretty much 60 degrees of longitude west to east, about 3000 miles, from above the mid-Atlantic ridge to Finland, fins to Finns, a single feature traversing a sixth of the northern hemisphere, and bringing a modest but widely felt 4 degree drop in temperature according to EURO4 and some very cold air following in its wake into the north of Scotland. 

[Atmogenic]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T240:

I’ll take that!  With the Azores getting involved:

Need to watch this if it turns up on other runs, Azores ridge with little from the atlantic to override it could start to show good portends for late spring and summer.  

That is the word I like to hear again after this crap spell 

[minus10]

Yes in line with the other models this evening the GFS 12 ens show a slow and 'steady as she goes' warming after the cold weekend. In line with an easterly based regime which will bring in slowly less cold air.

 

 

The pressure ens shows a rise after the weekend then falling back somewhat as HP transfer further E and N, although the control seems to have gone off on one towards the end...

Edited April 8, 2021 by minus10

[Cambrian]

Pub run’s not looking too bad for the pub run..........

........at least later on in the day. Good vest and a thick pair of socks might come in handy though.

[lassie23]

No snow in this cold spell down south, might as well get some sun and warmth now.

[Paul]

Locking this one, new thread here: