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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

    Anyone up for another wintry blast later next week?..the GEFS 12z P3 is up for it! Let’s have another chase...😘 😯 🥶 ❄️ 

    83E0ABF4-E548-4AFC-AFF6-CEE865062C87.thumb.png.f43f5fded9b53a0a9bed7eb7f724ac25.pngB2AED175-D286-4B4C-A0B0-9D071FD6A860.thumb.png.330ee6abb025a47b3f389045db0732fd.png297972E2-CFA5-4DFB-94BC-E298CA34161A.thumb.png.74fa16cdf860cb49cc8f846588ab64ba.png

    Bugger me, Karl... I'm going underground!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    16 minutes ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Latest ECM charts for Sunday, I nearly swore when I saw this 

     

     

    Screenshot_20210407-192458.png

    Does that progress to the south East please? Apologies for imby? 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 hour ago, Man Without Beard said:

    Latest ECM charts for Sunday, I nearly swore when I saw this 

     

     

    Screenshot_20210407-192458.png

    ECM pushes the low into the south / south east on sat giving a cold wet day (pure rain during daylight away from highest hills) then the low stalls all night and it turns cold enough to turn to sleet / wet snow. I’m suspicious how the low sits in the same place for almost 24hrs but it’s not impossible I guess. Even if it happens I wouldn’t expect a covering away from Chilterns / Downs as temps remain above freezing throughout. One to keep an eye on though !

    15622720-4FC0-4A77-AE30-427F0EC75C3D.jpeg

    0C285BC3-722A-4DA0-8A98-D6B38813EAD8.jpeg

    904860F7-6DB6-4F68-BD8D-51BD61EC13AB.jpeg

    071CCD0F-14D5-4BE0-89DE-D5B8B98D6068.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Near term - its staying cold, something a bit milder tomorrow but still below average, with rain in the north, cloudy further south. Friday see a resurgence of arctic air again, not the depth of cold as early this week, but still very potent with further snow showers in the far north and a return to sharp frosts. The weekend looking rather poor especially in the SE as a frontal feature moves in and settles in situ, it could move into more central parts to produce a damp cold spell. Further north wintry showers and cold NE flow. Brrr...

    Into the new week, a slightly milder outlook but staying predominantly chilly, heights try to ridge in from the south, but a slack shallow trough feature to our NW looks like anchoring down and through the UK bringing generally damp overcast cold conditions.

    No easy route to anything especially warm anytime soon, signs the atlantic might battle through eventually but with heights sat to the SW we could just see further bouts of cold rain folowed by northerly surges to see the month out, returning a very cold April CET value..

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    23 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

    Near term - its staying cold, something a bit milder tomorrow but still below average, with rain in the north, cloudy further south. Friday see a resurgence of arctic air again, not the depth of cold as early this week, but still very potent with further snow showers in the far north and a return to sharp frosts. The weekend looking rather poor especially in the SE as a frontal feature moves in and settles in situ, it could move into more central parts to produce a damp cold spell. Further north wintry showers and cold NE flow. Brrr...

    Into the new week, a slightly milder outlook but staying predominantly chilly, heights try to ridge in from the south, but a slack shallow trough feature to our NW looks like anchoring down and through the UK bringing generally damp overcast cold conditions.

    No easy route to anything especially warm anytime soon, signs the atlantic might battle through eventually but with heights sat to the SW we could just see further bouts of cold rain folowed by northerly surges to see the month out, returning a very cold April CET value..

    Yes it is looking that way, for the moment.  I will be interested to see whether the GloSea5 long range model output expected out in a week or so will have downgraded prospects for summer because of this current evolution.  It hardly has SST anomalies trending favourably now, although of course they are only one thing in the mix:

    D06D47AE-8D93-4799-8C17-F3F4430E2367.thumb.png.ccbb710462e01e05404c9086d06d63f3.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    At last! the 00Z has at least a ray-of-hope this morning -- post Day 10: 😲

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    One small step for man, one giant leap for mankind? No. Not really. But it's a start!😁

    Unfortunately, however, the temp. ensembles paint a somewhat less-favourable picture:

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    And it would seem the northern blocking signal continues then?? Fair assessment?? 

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    Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl
  • Location: North Newbald , East Riding of Yorkshire 139 f asl

    sheffield_ecmsd850.pngECM 0z ensemble mean

    A bit more encouraging from the ECM 0z this morning if you are looking for a "warm up"  later next week.

    Lets hope that the Op is onto something. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 hour ago, Snowfish2 said:

    And it would seem the northern blocking signal continues then?? Fair assessment?? 

    Hopefully not, SF2... but, seeing as how unreliable the models (even the anomalies are maybe having trouble?) seem to be just now, I wouldn't feel confident in making too many predictions:

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    9 hours ago, jordan smith said:

    The weekend looks cold with temperatures lower than normal, there will be snow showers moving into the north on saturday then a few sleet and snow showers into other parts of England and Wales as another flow of cold air from the Arctic moves south again, not quite as cold as the one we had on monday and tuesday, it will still feel particularly cold for this time of year especially for England and Wales.

    1279562674_EUROPE_TMP850_66(1).thumb.jpg.851973c36a6c6cf5bbb532b8bbea301c.jpg

    18_72_ukthickness850.thumb.png.0bc21754af153ff326f4dffa4fff35dc.png

    18_96_ukthickness850.thumb.png.8330378961967f6d3e1a63bc7a7bd739.png

    During saturday and in areas south and southeast of the Midlands and although there may be a few places that see sunshine at times.  It looks as though it will be cloudy for many here during the day particularly the far south and southeast with less showers than everywhere else..

    899765338_EUROPE_OVERVIEW_66(1).thumb.jpg.2302e7ebd5bd57670e442e6012ef042e.jpg

    A possible exception to above on saturday is an area of low pressure moving north east through France which may push rain into the far south and southeastern part of England , although this is more likely to stay mostly or completely away to the southeast..  snow possible from this for the near continent..

    54rt0i.thumb.gif.627a46aff470956270e93d62af497cca.gif

    Sunday will be cold with the sleet and snow showers in northern areas continuing and to lower levels too.. on lower levels in the south there will be a mix of rain, sleet and possibly snow in ones that develop.. Some places not getting anything and remaining dry and it will be sunny quite widely in between these.159893848_EUROPE_OVERVIEW_96(3).thumb.jpg.8e2a859237c70cff2b27f37bd60a1099.jpg

    The models have been changing quite a frequently in terms of the position of high and low pressure systems around and over the uk, this still continues to a lesser extent with the Gfs in particular but a drier spell during the first half of next week in the south is still the likely option, the Gfs is less unsettled compared with the last couple of days of updates but the low on this update looks too south over the country. more unsettled in the north during the first half the week though with rain for a time most likely tuesday and again for scotland the chance of snow on high ground. 🙂

    Gfs less likely and more unsettled but it is trending drier..

    1650618966_EUROPE_OVERVIEW_120(8).thumb.jpg.2b131a431f2669482c3fc565cef44931.jpg

    766901717_EUROPE_OVERVIEW_144(5).thumb.jpg.bb1adc5cdb52aab600f1a8948c10408d.jpg

    Ecm..

    EUROPE_HGT500_AVG_120.thumb.jpg.dac6533ff4d8f5aa79d05e1591445f68.jpg

    364813939_EUROPE_HGT500_AVG_144(2).thumb.jpg.4b2f8f30d974d6b2aaf301afd84fb097.jpg

    high pressure that looked like it would move into the south from the west during Sunday now delayed a little until monday.

    Frosty nights for some, daytime temperatures will rise higher than the weekends for all. Drier by monday for central and southern areas of England and Wales and then probably tuesday and most likely wednesday too here with temperatures closer to average.

    94989684_EUROPE_HGT500_AVG_168(2).thumb.jpg.eb818fcc30f45f975d67ff1558ae8942.jpg

    Later next week.. temperatures may atleast for a short time rise above average in the south.

    Hi Jordan, just want to say that was a really good post dude. 🙂

    0FDD6D5E-398B-4F54-98EE-19CC96E15B91.thumb.jpeg.dc8efadc213eb36c5c261dd5ffa420a9.jpeg

    Illustrates well the sort of weather and conditions to expect in the next few days. It does seem like wintry weather isn’t totally through with us, especially over Northern areas, as the weekend hits. Even the odd wintry surprise could be possible further South before the possibility of High Pressure trying to ridge in from the West into next week. Southern areas certainly seeing the best chance of ridging from the High. Though could be a bit of battle of High Pressure trying to ridge over the UK and further Lows trying to drop down towards us from the North-West, although the GFS 06Z run does have High Pressure winning for a time next week.

    (Just an example)

    732CEAF9-7B1D-4FC4-B54B-B83291EB4A59.thumb.png.8e2b586b0c01174211d046cf17160e85.png
     

    I’d be happy with a little bit more extra wintry weather that the weekend could provide, especially since sleet and snow is still possible at this time of year (did also have a few snow showers Tuesday just gone). But also looking forward to some warmer weather again whenever that could be, which next week could start providing. 

    Keep up the good work man  🙂 and the same for others. Been a lot of great posts in here 

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall
  • Location: Walsall
    1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    Hi Jordan, just want to say that was a really good post dude. 🙂

    0FDD6D5E-398B-4F54-98EE-19CC96E15B91.thumb.jpeg.dc8efadc213eb36c5c261dd5ffa420a9.jpeg

    Illustrates well the sort of weather and conditions to expect in the next few days. It does seem like wintry weather isn’t totally through with us, especially over Northern areas, as the weekend hits. Even the odd wintry surprise could be possible further South before the possibility of High Pressure trying to ridge in from the West into next week. Southern areas certainly seeing the best chance of ridging from the High. Though could be a bit of battle of High Pressure trying to ridge over the UK and further Lows trying to drop down towards us from the North-West, although the GFS 06Z run does have High Pressure winning for a time next week.

    (Just an example)

    732CEAF9-7B1D-4FC4-B54B-B83291EB4A59.thumb.png.8e2b586b0c01174211d046cf17160e85.png
     

    I’d be happy with a little bit more extra wintry weather that the weekend could provide, especially since sleet and snow is still possible at this time of year (did also have a few snow showers Tuesday just gone). But also looking forward to some warmer weather again whenever that could be, which next week could start providing. 

    Keep up the good work man  🙂 and the same for others. Been a lot of great posts in here 

    Winter can have it's last weekend. The glorious 12th is upon us.

    What are the models saying for 2 weeks time?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    GEFS 06Z control looks okay, but now the operational is playing-up:😁

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    10 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    GEFS 06Z control looks okay, but now the operational is playing-up:😁

    t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

    In the second half of the suite -only 3 good members - -8c on the 21st would be good but zero chance not 10% unfortunately.

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    4 hours ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

    sheffield_ecmsd850.pngECM 0z ensemble mean

    A bit more encouraging from the ECM 0z this morning if you are looking for a "warm up"  later next week.

    Lets hope that the Op is onto something. 

    Hi Neil Harris, hard to be sure at the moment considering the big swing in changes that can occur from the models at that time period. But I think there are current signs for things to start warming up over the next 2 weeks. A chance for the weather to become less chillier anyway. Something that the ensembles and, in some ways, the anomaly charts point to.

    Some warmer, sunnier, days getting into the mix, such as in late March, would personally be grand over the next week or 2, and certainly beyond.

    Edit: Sorry, quoted the wrong person. Meant for Neil Harris 😂🙈

    Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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    Posted
  • Location: East London
  • Location: East London

    At this time of year, the sun is getting higher in the sky day by day. While a warm up would be nice a settled spell with lots of sunshine would do just fine.

    With that in mind let's see what the GEFS 6z has to say about the pressure pattern...

     

    Screenshot_20210408-150506.thumb.png.b61cd3f611c2ded9d3a31e4c046f2dc3.png

    Oh.

    The mean indicates high pressure overall, but the spaghetti is wild past day 6 so I don't think the mean is worth much. No real trend there at all.

    At least rainfall seems fairly limited days 3-7. Let's cling on to the positives we can find.

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