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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    January was pretty cold tbh so I don't mind this spell not happening then, but if this happened last month then I feel more people would be excited with this prolonged cold spell. Nonetheless it still makes model watching very interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kelty
  • Weather Preferences: Snaw, Snaw and mair Snaw
  • Location: Kelty

    Incredible this projected cold spell...its a shame not much will come of it unless you happen to live high up, if anything does make it down to lower levels it won't last long with the strength of the sun, the temperature is +6.5deg/C there will be no snow here.

    2020/21 has to be one of the best winters for a very long time I have managed to capture video of quite a bit of the very heavy snow showers we had a month ago I'am trying to put together a timelapse video of an afternoon's worth of footage...if it works it'll look very good.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    17 minutes ago, Klippie said:

    Incredible this projected cold spell...its a shame not much will come of it unless you happen to live high up, if anything does make it down to lower levels it won't last long with the strength of the sun, the temperature is +6.5deg/C there will be no snow here.

    2020/21 has to be one of the best winters for a very long time I have managed to capture video of quite a bit of the very heavy snow showers we had a month ago I'am trying to put together a timelapse video of an afternoon's worth of footage...if it works it'll look very good.

     

    Indeed! If the GFS 06Z is anything to go by, we could be in this for the long haul:🥶

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Might be a long, long time!😁

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    2 hours ago, Griff said:

    Mystic Griff says "Elvis are you with us?" 

    Elvis replies "look for some unexpected excitement across the regionals this afternoon and this evening!" 

    Remember folks the radar said rain yesterday for many which turned out to be flurries. 

    👍

    Outlook remains cold! 

    Screenshot_20210406-130437.jpg

    Great post Griff, I read it with Elvis’s voice in my head and now I’m all shook up!😜..especially after seeing the Gfs 6z op snaw charts for fri and especially sat...Elvis has now left the building..thank you very much!...😺 🥶 ❄️ 
     

    AF3EE203-D116-458D-B37E-2D8B59054468.thumb.png.7f4f5460238b3a639c80c95af2143b0e.pngDD480D9C-6488-461B-903B-8BDC5BFF2BAB.thumb.png.ee38a164898d3b2c3c3e20014158c4ea.png702CFBFB-A42A-4316-9EAB-C7FFEAA65220.thumb.png.5a2925dca361d7cb544d1a0fbd7a3318.png

    Edited by Jon Snow
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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

    The gefs ens are starting to firm up/upgrade the colder weather for the weekend with a mean of -8...

    ens_image.thumb.png.c518e59a517c06e05ed614e69ca77c6c.png

    then the mean hovering around the -5 line pretty much throughout,...you know what they say!!!,...you get more snow in April than in the winter months

    check out my video in the Yorkshire regionals thread it was Baltic at one point with marble sized Graupel,it was insane...

    DSC03301.thumb.JPG.e726774041291ded2bd9df0dbe097719.JPGDSC03302.thumb.JPG.0ba81e39bf9ee7216fe8f1fc74dbdc17.JPGDSC03304.thumb.JPG.cf02823aee45a413c7292060a69e2632.JPG

    a sharp frost tonight with some places down to -5 so gardeners beware😏

     

    Great vids Allseasons. Its incredible how much 'ice' was coming down in those showers. I didnt experience anything like that intensity today outside, just light flurries that only lasted 30 secs or so. Nature of showers I suppose . However it was 'challenging ' out today with that biting wind blowing.

    Looks like we are going to have to get used to these conditions for some time if the ecm12z is anything to go by..

    image.thumb.png.6e5f5b4a17faa75463e252808ec416d8.pngimage.thumb.png.b91ff2086977e660a424b519cd4cd5f6.png

    As you say tough time for us gardeners and growers....but for coldies..

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Looking and scanning the Ecm and Gfs we are not losing the cold and dry weather for a good while yet....!

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    This ensemble plot wouldn’t be out of place in winter it’s a chilly outlook and feeling quite wintry recently we had snow showers yesterday and today in London even with temps well above freezing a measure of how cold much of atmosphere is, tonight it feels bitter out there on Thames riverside cold wind. Will be interesting to see anomaly by mid month. Typical for colder weather in north in April but further south we’re not so used to this my lowest max last April was 10C very different to year ago where we was in a warm spell in fact I believe it was 25C in London this time last year. 

    6888D694-F903-4A83-8A0B-0D0642968B9C.thumb.png.ddab82386fe35f820554a8b7358a9e7e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy days and long hot summer days with a big overnight thunderstorm
  • Location: Northamptonshire, UK

    The cold weather will never be too far away as it's looking like we could see another plunge of northerly winds at the end of this week which would give an ongoing risk of snow.❄

    1896194744_GFS2.thumb.PNG.546747a71ea58637f5ddb0b076e5d3b8.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent
    13 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

    I am on the ball tonight,...hopefully a snow ball lol😜

    Since when did the jma finish at 264 this early😎

    anyway,...it looks cold👀

    JN264-21.thumb.gif.4d6baf7d5c899537904a852bc003cea0.gifJN264-6.thumb.gif.96db69a9956b0f03668f6477a75475d7.gifJN264-7.thumb.gif.6a00c7b66b27f87d77b69d0504cc6dfa.gif

    and it's nice to see that Meteociel is starting to get all it's info back together 👍

    i thought that i would be out of the cold camp by now but whilst the models keep on showing wintry potential i will keep on posting them,i do hope that we will benefit a good summer after a late cold spring though😏

    How is this pattern reinforcing for so long, we have a jet stream in Europe and Russia according to that... Just pee off.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth
    41 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    If you're looking for a decent weekend, then today's GFS 00Z isn't for you:🥶

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    Sado-masochists, on the other hand, might be wetting themselves!😁

    The weekend outlook is just dreadful. I know dreadful, horrid, awful are used all the time (and by me a lot) but a weekend in Mid April were temps in the south may not rise above 6-7C under cloud, rain and breezy conditions certainly qualifies for those terms being used.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 minute ago, high ground birmingham said:

    April CET to be lower than March’s CET? Has this ever happened before?

    Yup. Has happened many times before but only recently happened in 2012 where March's CET was 8.3 and April 7.2. If April comes in under March this time, it'd be more impressive considering the March CET is already relatively low.

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    After the not so nice weekend

    image.thumb.png.31ae067c5cae30512ed958fc78f2aa0c.png

    Comes more frosts....Yipee..

    image.thumb.png.f2e96dc90ff5a0a208383e9ed5ed7134.pngimage.thumb.png.867acce37ca65faec4c7cad07dfea92f.png

    Courtesy of GFS 6z. Thanks GFS..🥶

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )

    Got a table booked on the 14th, think I’ll need to wrap up 🍻🥶

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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