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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    It’s not hard to imagine how GEM could evolve to an easterly ..

    E476AB10-145E-4575-9F17-011C3912783A.png

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    Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

    The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

    Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m

    UKMO and ECM looking pretty similar at Day 5.

    ECM1-120.thumb.gif.8f78e32547ba523b87125c5891079e7a.gifUW120-21.thumb.gif.d563194ea2a734977f295b816df713ef.gif

    Slight differences regarding the lows the ECM has it further West but keeps the two lows phased where as the UKMO separates them. 

    Vis over Scandi the heights are slightly better on the UKMO but we are nit picking at this point. 

    Edited by Summerstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    ECM showing a similar attempt to UKMO at heights over Scandi this run

    UKMO 120hrs                                                         ECM 120hrs

    image.thumb.png.27980678f4cf87781fe3e4a7c644698a.pngimage.thumb.png.7e7310e27babdd99e8a70c82f1119859.png

    Not a million miles off a decent evolution ar +144hrs

    image.thumb.png.3d42ebf806f53e6b4a5d1afe12d21966.png

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The UKMO and ECM at 144,...some interest.

    UN144-21.thumb.gif.f9d3802d2386244efb6d8b000df16c26.gifECH1-144.thumb.gif.ac627e7f40014a8460892dde69b329a3.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Trigger shortwave drama on the ECM.

    It’s in the North Sea at day 6 , that needs to clear se or even better south at day 7 and allow some ridging to push sw against the upstream troughing .

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl

    At 168 it's ended up better than I thought after the 144 chart

    image.thumb.png.2a4e60772d44acfb9b047b7b30ddd7a4.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

    Both the ECM and UKMO perhaps show signs of a more continental influence to our weather into week 2. So after a brief milder spell the temperatures will begin to fall away. As the next pulse of WAA heads north after day 6

    UKMO

    image.thumb.gif.ea448ab4b3a63b21d352a60e8e45f59a.gif

    ECM

    image.thumb.gif.65ecff81abe2bec10c9d1ba608f95720.gif

     

    ECM has a south easterly by day 7, UKMO probably similar, all the while very cold air sits over Eastern Europe. It would require more shifts in the earlier timeframes or a lot of work later on to get that to our shores.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    The block is putting up a wall..”though shall not Pass”. Someone tell it that sliding under is possible...

    C7C9F3FA-449E-47C1-8845-73AEB0D0AEDA.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Second hurdle , shortwave energy must cut se from the upstream troughing at day 8.

    That area towards the sw needs to eject that energy se , not ne.

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    A little bit of hope creeping into the models. Models going earlier and earlier for the hope now. With the high being in a good position to collapse and allow the cold to sink down but still clutching at straws here but still there is time for the toys to stay in the pram with a good cold period. Cold begins to collapse at Scotland around the point where anything could happen but still a good chance of the run happening. 

    771696668_gensnh-0-1-192(9).thumb.png.b4e6312a5ce5fdf706297216560af389.png130739131_gensnh-0-1-216(4).thumb.png.9308ceafb2df078c445ae3ecf782e5d6.png

    Xander(HS) 

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    'Interesting' as Steve Davis would say...

    image.thumb.png.d3d9c89d9c08a1e0b0b9667248bceffc.pngimage.thumb.png.838f81d8cc2e67795fac5312fb4e11f6.png

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Second hurdle , shortwave energy must cut se from the upstream troughing at day 8.

    That area towards the sw needs to eject that energy se , not ne.

    I think it will at day 8 Nick,that block is perfectly placed if i am not wrong.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    At day 8 ECM looking blocked...

    4004B9BD-8081-4F9C-B5B2-C7FFE4CD8673.thumb.png.bc591ed120a1fae0edbcbbdd6fc4d1dc.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Two high pressure lobes for the price of one at day 8 to the ne and east .

    The upstream pattern at day 8 looks very good , that energy digging that far south . 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The trough disrupts over the UK at day eight with colder air advecting SW from the NE,good run so far.

    ECH1-192.thumb.gif.094009fbf51182f7ecdbebe0ddc1d5b8.gifECH0-192.thumb.gif.9ce0f28ab9a0b05b932834edcb6a0d64.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Meat on the bone 🍖???! Certainly is .. and an almost crude gigantic omega block format!!..  and already at the surface feeling cold again!!!

    D7CD8165-32AA-4F11-B38A-444E27BF6A78.gif

    46A17115-4E86-4870-AD64-978A8059DAFE.png

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

    Really does look as though there is a wall there in the atlantic at day 6,and a sharp one at that.

    Strat related?

     

    ECM1-144.thumb.GIF.c05014c92c0703bdb81ed0205835c3a2.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

    Really does look as though there is a wall there in the atlantic at day 6,and a sharp one at that.

    Strat related?

     

    ECM1-144.thumb.GIF.c05014c92c0703bdb81ed0205835c3a2.GIF

    That sharpness is key , the more sharp and as far south as possible is the bellwether moving forward . 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    image.thumb.png.f241dbfb5d3de165403153e71152bdbe.pngimage.thumb.png.54a4d3a43611aa7f84003f32624ec539.png 

    Fascinating. It simultaneously sinks the high pressure and inflates it northward! 😁

    Good demonstration of the fact that we only need one low to move in the right way to change the direction of travel from a spring-like high to a wintry one.

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    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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