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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ICON 18z looks slightly east of where we might want it at T66:

    41FC690E-AEB1-4571-BD07-4CFEE1F73CC2.thumb.png.274af5b5e4d9452df520194c7e9cff3b.png

    T66 - can’t believe I’m commenting on developments at such short times, but this situation seems to require it.  

    It'll be feeling pleasant in the sun, despite the cold uppers, at this rate!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    image.thumb.png.228f5dd3037d39282779b95be0b0884f.png

    That'll feel fresh but quite pleasant in my part of the world

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS pub run T72:

    91AC6CD9-6903-4BC5-83B0-8BE657C056C8.thumb.png.14eb6e45bcb59da1d1adfac3ef081e1e.pngDC35D60E-7BED-491C-B2E4-5F0EA2EFE9E7.thumb.png.068a2338621ae2aecb560e80f2bc0967.png

    Looks like a direct hit with the cold, the proximity of the low pressure still an issue...but a much better run...

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ICON 18z looks slightly east of where we might want it at T66:

    41FC690E-AEB1-4571-BD07-4CFEE1F73CC2.thumb.png.274af5b5e4d9452df520194c7e9cff3b.png

    T66 - can’t believe I’m commenting on developments at such short times, but this situation seems to require it.  

    I'm still struggling to get fully on board with this, despite such short time frames!! 🥶

    I said last night I would give it another 24 hours but am now saying the same this evening!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    Cold GFS 18z

    image.thumb.png.add2122ae0d5da57436edc7bcf257492.png

    Next week is looking very cold for Scotland and some other parts of the north with snow. Hillier areas will see a fair bit of snow I reckon. For southern UK it's looking cold with some frost but also bright and sunny. Nuisance breeze for 36 - 48 hours from Monday morning but once that drops out it will be ok daytime. Showers looking more and more isolated with every run down in the south

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    5 minutes ago, LRD said:

    Cold GFS 18z

    image.thumb.png.add2122ae0d5da57436edc7bcf257492.png

    Next week is looking very cold for Scotland and some other parts of the north with snow. Hillier areas will see a fair bit of snow I reckon. For southern UK it's looking cold with some frost but also bright and sunny. Nuisance breeze for 36 - 48 hours from Monday morning but once that drops out it will be ok daytime. Showers looking more and more isolated with every run down in the south

    Familiar story following on from winter.  Northern areas get plenty of snow, whereas the south just misses out and has to make do with scraps!

    Subject to change, but at the moment, I think the likes of IMBY will feel cold in the wind for a few days, but otherwise generally dry and sunny.  Nothing to get excited about but perhaps a different story further north!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

    If anything I think the GFS 18Z has the northerly very slightly further east than the GFS and ECMWF 12Z runs did, with less precipitation again as a result.  Potential for a snowy disturbance moving south down the eastern half of England early on Easter Monday, though it may fizzle as it heads further south:

    image.thumb.png.3d4623ede2eddb548d3b15b54393f2ef.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    8 minutes ago, Don said:

    Familiar story following on from winter.  Northern areas get plenty of snow, whereas the south just misses out and has to make do with scraps!

    Things might switch back in the morning. But going by the model runs from the last 12 hours or so, shower activity in the south is being significantly diminished. It'll be cold though with some very fresh nights and early mornings. If it's clear and the sun shines it will feel ok once the wind drops despite the cool/cold uppers

    Will the predictions of wintry scenes nationwide be proven right or wrong? Frost guaranteed I'd have thought. For something more than that? It's gonna be tense!

    image.png.e0d192d87ba7b9c2afaa1be2bd898c48.png

    Arf

    Edited by LRD
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    If anything I think the GFS 18Z has the northerly very slightly further east than the GFS and ECMWF 12Z runs did, with less precipitation again as a result.  Potential for a snowy disturbance moving south down the eastern half of England early on Easter Monday, though it may fizzle as it heads further south:

    image.thumb.png.3d4623ede2eddb548d3b15b54393f2ef.png

     

    Not really liking the trends developing this evening it has to be said, but that's living in the UK for you with minor changes to setups having a big effect on our small islands!

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    22 minutes ago, Don said:

    Not really liking the trends developing this evening it has to be said, but that's living in the UK for you with minor changes to setups having a big effect on our small islands!

    Yes the low that was going to move ese over us on Wednesday only a couple of days ago has been moved north for the last few runs thus resulting in no second surge of cold from the north as such now on the gfs18z.

     

    12z   image.thumb.png.356544a07250bcadcd11a29c955da12b.png  18z image.thumb.png.ebc94530bb892ebfa066b5e9b0e2aa51.png

    Instead you have a sw lining up by t171. Its amazing that these changes have been occurring relatively close to the event. Just goes to show that even within the 'reliable' time period small changes mage a big difference, particularly where northerlies are concerned....

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    7 minutes ago, minus10 said:

    Instead you have a sw lining up by t171. Its amazing that these changes have been occurring relatively close to the event. Just goes to show that even within the 'reliable' time period small changes mage a big difference, particularly where northerlies are concerned....

    That's exactly why I've refused to get excited about this potential event, as like you say, minor changes can lead to cold spells going 'belly up' even within the reliable time period!  To be fair, it's the same story with easterlies, too.  Still time for things to change back but lets hope we have more luck next winter!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
    1 minute ago, Don said:

    That's exactly why I've refused to get excited about this potential event, as like you say, minor changes can lead to cold spells going 'belly up' even within the reliable time period!  Still time for things to change back but lets hope we have more luck next winter!

    ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

    Interestingly the 18z gfs hasnt given up yet with bringing the cold back later in the run, although more in passing . 

    image.thumb.png.a4b96247afedd8bb549aec99f1bb6a69.png

    Also the heat to the south is increasingly starting to make its present felt. 

    Lets see what the first surge of northerlies bring on Monday. Still time for further adjustments for wednesday onwards however presently the trend on the gfs is against the second northerly surge..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
    10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Good positive trends away from a lengthy cold spell continuing this morning with the added bonus that both GFS & ECM are rapidly removing the snow risk, it’s really only exposed coasts that look most likely across E+W to see anything wintry. Temps likely to be back into double figures before the weeks end and ensembles backing up and fairly rapid increase after the initial plunge! 

    I'm not of his camp... Prefer cooler so not great from my personal perspective... Await next runs to see if this is indeed the case or NOt

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Subtle changes this mornings runs in developments coming week  but same theme still, colder than normal.

    I'm not speculating on where any shower activity might be come Monday and Tuesday, case of now casting. With the depth of cold uppers combined with time of year, you would expect it to be an unstable set up. Convection inland likely but may not happen and it could be a wishbone effect away from North Scotland.

    Models showing low pressure mid week moving west to east over N Scotland rather than NW-SE. This enables a small rise in pressure to the south which in turn kills off the cold northerly flow further south. However, shortlived as once the low moves east it drops down a northerly flow later in the week. No clear signal what happens thereafter, probably heights rising eventually but the GFS shows a disturbed Atlantic flow, cyclonic and quite chilly still.

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    Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed

    Even with the slight shift east, the latest fax has the pembs dangler setting up camp for a few days. Will interesting to see what falls if it gets going. 

    Screenshot_20210403-091638_Samsung Internet.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
    43 minutes ago, Alderc said:

    Good positive trends away from a lengthy cold spell continuing this morning with the added bonus that both GFS & ECM are rapidly removing the snow risk, it’s really only exposed coasts that look most likely across E+W to see anything wintry. Temps likely to be back into double figures before the weeks end and ensembles backing up and fairly rapid increase after the initial plunge! 

    Having watched this 'late season' winter potential play out on the models in recent weeks without commenting here,I feel moved this morning to pass comment on what has played out and what I think will happen.

    Firstly,as in Winter 'proper' plenty of agreement from models on dreamy winter scenarios U.K wide at day 10 and almost then in touching distance at day 3.

    Then,the usual watered now variation as we get into a 48hr time frame.

    Now we are seeing a largely Northern event on Monday and Tuesday,certainly a notable wind chill for all and the prospect of milder conditions by weeks end with the touted week of Winter cold fast disappearing.

    It is heartening to see these Winter Nirvana situations going bust at a time personally I couldn't be less interested.

    Only once in my memory have we had worthwhile April snow in the South.April 6th 2008.

    Snow was settling on Hastings beach at 1pm with a temperature of -1c!

    A large fall of snow followed that stuck well into the following day..that was worth it, generally I'm looking for warmth and the first thundery plume now.

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    Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

    The return to average is now a strong signal as this evolution has been consistently and gradually expected

     

    814day.03 sat.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    As expected really downgraded, looks horrible for most of south on Monday, cold and dry, only really hits Scotland and NE England

    hgt500-1000.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
    9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    As expected really downgraded, looks horrible for most of south on Monday, cold and dry, only really hits Scotland and NE England

    hgt500-1000.png

    Lets hope we see some sun with cloud at night to keep frosts away....

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    As expected really downgraded, looks horrible for most of south on Monday, cold and dry, only really hits Scotland and NE England

    hgt500-1000.png

    The whole country still under the -10c 850s. That's quite impressive for April.

    GFSOPEU06_72_2.thumb.png.fbe1b49d01dde9e7bd7bdc89aa712ce1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    My 30% re the anomaly charts is 60+% now with both the EC and NOAA outputs showing similar patterns, see links

     

     

    The 6-10 NOAA shows a flow still just no f w but the 8-14 has it backed to s of west with a general Atlantic flow

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

    I suspect shower activity will be more prevalent than some have been making out.

    Saw snow and soft hail showers from this set-up and that was a "blink and you miss it" set-up from 8th April 2005

    CFSR_1_2005040818_1.png

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