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Model output discussion 10/02/21


Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Aye looking good, still a bit off yet though, but Arctic NW'lys normally great here

    Yes, could all change, but so far, so cold

    gfsnh-1-204.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
    5 minutes ago, Griff said:

    GFS next Friday 

    gfsnh-0-186.png

    gfsnh-1-186.png

    😂😂😂Oh my giddy Aunt 🥴😵🙈🙈🥶😂

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    In a word brrr.. I'll await the ECM then provide a full commentary for the 4 day Easter period and outlook for the new week which currently is on course to be 'wintry' in feel..

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    Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
    18 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Looking ahead, GFS vs UKMO at 144. 

    Fairly consistent, so interesting to see what the GFS says up to next weekend 🤔 

    gfsnh-0-144.png

    UN144-21 (2).gif

    When you consider where the GFS ends up this is rather exciting 😎🙏👀

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Next weekend's looking a wee bitty nippy . . . the last-chance stonker, anyone?👍

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Horizontal Drizzle
  • Location: Salwick Lancashire +0.000000002 ASL

    Oh GFS you little tinker you.

    h500slp.thumb.png.3e52a160cbec09b34c1fcdcac078f99a.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

     

    1100 mb theoretically being shown over Greenland on the gfs 12z again. Brings a new meaning to the term 'under the weather'....

    image.thumb.png.7f114b3aa792bf2d13642f43611f4ec7.png

    Around the 8th April according to GFS conditions in the north east of Scotland are definitely not going to be nice....

    image.thumb.png.2250dcbf64b81feca03cb6d1f3be5ac7.png

    After the cold week the warm up for the following week...

    image.thumb.png.1b72089329c61f3386fe39bdd1f137da.png

    The yo yo continues...

     

     

    Edited by minus10
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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    2 minutes ago, minus10 said:

     

    1100 mb theoretically being shown over Greenland on the gfs 12z again. Brings a new meaning to the term 'under the weather'....

    image.thumb.png.7f114b3aa792bf2d13642f43611f4ec7.png

    Around the 8th April according to GFS conditions in the north east of Scotland are definitely not going to be nice....

    image.thumb.png.2250dcbf64b81feca03cb6d1f3be5ac7.png

    After the cold week the warm up for the following week...

    image.thumb.png.1b72089329c61f3386fe39bdd1f137da.png

    The yo yo continues...

     

     

    Good, just in time, I love cold like most 🤗 but beer gardens and cold ain’t for me 😉

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

    Not the dreaded 'N-Word'? Whatever next! 😲

    Nailed or screwed? Which will it be! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    14 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    lets be honest any snow will hang round about as long as a fat kid at a vegan BBQ

    The scrag-end of the GFS 12Z looks okay, to me: at least the remnants of the PV are miles' away to the NW:🤔

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    And a 'vegan barbecue' sounds positively scary!😱

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Islington
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing cold snowy winters & unsettled summers.
  • Location: Islington
    56 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    Next weekend's looking a wee bitty nippy . . . the last-chance stonker, anyone?👍

    h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

    That chart looks like it would bring some remarkably cold nights with close to -10 uppers under a ridge of high pressure. Gardeners beware.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    18 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

    That chart looks like it would bring some remarkably cold nights with close to -10 uppers under a ridge of high pressure. Gardeners beware.

    Indeed! And I wouldn't be at all surprised, should some frost-hollows see minus double-digit minima -- by the time the cold spell has expired.🤔

    Edited by General Cluster
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    April fool.... Oh no wait, actually happening? 

    ECH1-96.gif

    ECH0-96.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    Evening all 🙂

    The first signs of a change to something colder apparent in my back garden this afternoon.

    However, there look to be two "phases" of cold - the first from the direct Arctic blast on Monday and the second later in the week as an LP, forming to the south west of Iceland, swings ESE across the British Isles and drags down another pulse of -8 or lower 850s. 

    To be fair, both OP and Control quickly lift out the cold the following week and we soon return to something much warmer.

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    Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All weather
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

    Some snow maybe not just for “ the usual places” next Tuesday / Wednesday if the GEM has it right. It’s picking up on the potential for an interesting little disturbance / polar low running down off the west coast of Scotland Tuesday morning, over North Wales by mid afternoon moving down over the Midlands to exit off the Sussex Coast by early hours Wednesday. Maybe gone on the next run, but shows the potential. 

    352580A6-800B-47EE-AFFA-A4A3F2DD7BE7.thumb.png.a2cce6924202b3850d05ae54a0f6cc63.pngBCBC9D9B-2A8F-4846-9B2A-525AFDDCB514.thumb.png.271298f5b22d6d8f62cab17ef374e3db.png8B184454-132D-4377-A924-51A9B145CF1F.thumb.png.9f81e396f9bbf66de2841aaedcb0041b.png5B6B71DE-1E99-4105-9B9C-19E34E1CB366.thumb.png.0832185db3dadafe35e5f3b3b010aa10.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    4 minutes ago, stodge said:

    Evening all 🙂

    The first signs of a change to something colder apparent in my back garden this afternoon.

    However, there look to be two "phases" of cold - the first from the direct Arctic blast on Monday and the second later in the week as an LP, forming to the south west of Iceland, swings ESE across the British Isles and drags down another pulse of -8 or lower 850s. 

    To be fair, both OP and Control quickly lift out the cold the following week and we soon return to something much warmer.

    Agree to an extent. For the southern half of the UK that is true. For the north the cold looks set until next weekend on the Op and Control

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    lets be honest any snow will hang round about as long as a fat kid at a vegan BBQ

    Hahahahaha! Post of the week!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers with thunderstorms, stormy or fog/frost autumns, cold winters
  • Location: Bedfordshire
    2 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Will it or won't it 🙊 

    ECH0-168 (1).gif

    Unfortunately, I think a reload is NAILED (sorry @General Cluster) on:

    image.thumb.png.f832a6242a2620a4942618891b3ff22c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

    The key for the continuation of the cold is the LP which ends up near the Azores on ECM. That serves to hold the heights to the north and keep a N'ly airflow over the British Isles. 

    GFS keeps the LP well to the west of the Azores - this allows the HP to sink south and open the door for the Atlantic westerlies to return.

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