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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
    47 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    Disappointing that the block didnt hold on ,but cold air not far away,and looks like back in the freezer end of the following week,thats my take on it,so interesting watching the models pick up on the next big chill.

     

    I'm not that optimistic. We have only 1-2 weak signals right now for getting back to colder conditions. Having lived in SE Europe 2/3 of my life I know that almost always they get a 2nd Siberian blast after the 1st one or the 2nd one just shifts far East. The Azores high is strengthening over us and these models have decent verification when this happens. 

    I hope I'm proved wrong though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    I don’t know about you but I’ve been getting a ‘taster of spring then plunged back into winter’ type vibe over the past few days.

    I've been getting all sorts of vibes during the last few days be it early spring, late spring, winter etc etc!  

    BTW, I think we can now say that sock is safe!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    Hello, what's the Ukmo thinking about here at 144.

    Weak scandi cut off high, little adjustment west and would be a very good chart

    UN144-21 (1) (18).gif

    Yes it would!

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Good old GFS has a  1005 MB Low "pummeling" the block🙈

     

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=144&mode=0

    gfs-0-144_gul2.png

     

     

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Just now, Vadoseflame said:

    Is it just me or has the GFS downgraded this mild spell? Seems maybe a few low teens, if that?

    Sounds pretty mild to me for mid February and bear in mind the GFS often under cooks these temps by a couple of degrees!

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Small incremental changes on the mean just building heights slightly further north to our east rebuffing the atlantic

    image.thumb.png.7138d5755aa07e01422714009e96061d.png12z

    image.thumb.png.1d035351fe0159092a3fb5262da9a57f.png06z

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
    3 hours ago, Andypvfc said:

    Exactly. What epic winter. 🤣🤣. 0 cm of Snow this week, and only minus 5 last night, which was supposed to be the coldest night of Winter. If this week was epic, I dread to think what Boring would be like 🤣

    Living in Stoke perhaps.* Unfortunately the world does not revolve around the Potteries and some area in particular Eastern Scotland, parts of Northern England and some areas of East Anglia and Southeast England have done better than they have for many years.

    It does sadly look as though come the end of the weekend even the most easterly parts will be under milder air, with only the outside chance of a return to colder the second week after as a Scandi High attempts to build. Winter might be over, but it is too early to be definite in that assumption.

    *Joke alert.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    13 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    Small incremental changes on the mean just building heights slightly further north to our east rebuffing the atlantic

    image.thumb.png.7138d5755aa07e01422714009e96061d.png12z

    image.thumb.png.1d035351fe0159092a3fb5262da9a57f.png06z

    Quite a few members in the gfsp camp from a couple of yesterday’s runs ..... coupled with the Ukmo day 6 from today and some anticipation form the ec op ....

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    From what I've seen from the GFS parallel in general recently, is it seems to be more generous with colder charts than its sibling?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 hour ago, Don said:

    I've been getting all sorts of vibes during the last few days be it early spring, late spring, winter etc etc!  

    BTW, I think we can now say that sock is safe!

    Mate, my socks are never safe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    I’ve pinned my colours to the mast on another reversal wave into the trop for a while now ....whether that arrives before feb is out or into March is another question ....

    I’m favouring early March personally. Most likely Greenland based.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    Mate, my socks are never safe.

    Lol, ok if February ends up being above average you will have to eat a sock then!

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Potential for freezing rain over northern and eastern England on Sunday evening as the band of rain moves in from the west, 850 hPa temps above freezing, but surface temps close to freezing towards the east. So rain falling and potentially hitting frozen surfaces.

    GFSOPUK12_81_53.thumb.png.b10f3410be72e02a9fe0a2d26f21d820.pngGFSOPUK12_84_53.thumb.png.aa716f8fc6a3b4c0e428af102976a015.png

    GFSOPUK12_81_2.thumb.png.3e592aba6ad30f5d723a3e798194c88b.pngGFSOPUK12_81_5.thumb.png.8d19e56decbd6dc23a94bb03d64da9ed.png

    Edited by Nick F
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    I agree with those that say we could see a glimpse of Spring and rapid return to Winter.

    A lot will depend on the potential undercut at 120-144 mid month which could well put is back into a continental flow, albeit more likely a slack SE than any Beast type scenario, at least initially.

    It is a real shame that the breakdown is happening in such a way that all the cold upper air gets mixed out before worthwhile ppn arrives meaning many places, more especially the W of England, will just get rain instead of several hours of snow and at least a transient snowfall from this Easterly which rarely deliver for such locations.

    If the slider type scenario at 120h had happened instead of the horrible SW type flow at 48h we would have been buried and maintained the surface cold and snow cover. 

    Bad luck all around and in keeping with a Winter of near misses.

    Typical trough disruption/undercut scenario as projected within GFS ensembles

    gens-7-1-120.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambourne,Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Cambourne,Cambridgeshire
    1 hour ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    There was a lot of talk on here about the failure of glosea seasonal 2019 & 2020 winter forecasts. 

    Can I assume that glosea also provide mid term or monthly forecasts, or, do the Met use some other model for these?

    Hello, this link will help show/explain what models data ect the meto use

    binary-code.jpg
    WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

    The Unified Model (UM) is a numerical model of the atmosphere used for both weather and climate applications.

     

    Edited by zubzero
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    It is a real shame that the breakdown is happening in such a way that all the cold upper air gets mixed out before worthwhile ppn arrives meaning many places, more especially the W of England, will just get rain instead of several hours of snow and at least a transient snowfall from this Easterly which rarely deliver for such locations.

    I fully agree, the west/south west have really not had any luck at all during this cold spell!  A shame as this was probably the big chance of the winter!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    24 minutes ago, Don said:

    From what I've seen from the GFS parallel in general recently, is it seems to be more generous with colder charts than its sibling?!

    That’s fair, and given we are still in the 2 month or so period where we are affected by the SSW, the significantly increased vertical resolution in the // probably gives it an edge.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    If the upstream troughing aligns favourably then the cold is likely to return would be the headline so far .

    You need more dig south of that troughing and shortwave energy to eject cleanly se and not attached to the mothership .

    Neither the GFS or UKMO manage that within T144 hours although the latter has a better looking high to the east and there’s likely to be a second attempt at day 7 . The base of the mothership is likely to spawn some more shortwave energy as the upstream shortwave exiting Canada phases with that , this will cause a nw pivot at that point there’s the chance to get energy se .

    We await the ECM verdict !

    Edited by nick sussex
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