Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hmm - could have done with -10c across whole country, must admit i was hoping for -12c or -13c for me, anything at -8c or higher will melt on contact here, a little disappointed.

Well T168 and we have this zoomed in to the UK:

A0D6A86A-0975-4C1D-8EA9-7A71AAA18743.thumb.png.4cc7c3d7a15621a9edbe2b81e7c0ac7e.png

-9 most places, -10 midlands/Wales.  But melt on contact i get you - if it is coming on the back of +24C temperatures, that will be a big issue!  Then the question will be how long the northerly will last for with these uppers in place, and it is too early to tell yet...

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hmm - could have done with -10c across whole country, must admit i was hoping for -12c or -13c for me, anything at -8c or higher will melt on contact here, a little disappointed.

Unless we can get it wrapped around the N or W flank of that trough and get some continuous heavy snow.

Nyet spaceeba, I'd rather see +15C!

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

We had snow melt issues in February with -10 uppers on an easterly. The only way you’re going to get lying snow out of this is with a frontal disturbance embedded in the arctic air with some sustained precipitation. The problem with convective showers is that you need the sun to generate it, and it’s way too strong to allow snow cover to last.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

image.thumb.png.be986f63309e3545e34d0b07cca56b31.png

Excellent. I look forward to the incoming wind, rain and hail shower-fest IMBY. I might, just might see a flake or three of snow if I climb to the top of a very tall building

Can't wait

image.png.f6a16254524d23043e4b2a5243264358.png

Edited by LRD
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Nyet spaceeba, I'd rather see +15C!

Another go now at 216, you aint gonne see that for a while

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
2 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:

I really am hoping for a major weather model u-turn in the next few days as nice is it is seeing these charts I don’t really want them in April. I’m sorry if that goes against snow hopes but I rather have warm and sunny weather now.

I’m with you on that, would massively prefer warmth now, but the weather enthusiast in me senses the possibility of an unusual event, which has to take priority in the short term, since it seems to be firming up now on the models.  Even if that unusual event only amounts to a couple of hours of big snowflakes that only settle on the grass.  

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
3 minutes ago, Dominic Carey said:

I really am hoping for a major weather model u-turn in the next few days as nice is it is seeing these charts I don’t really want them in April. I’m sorry if that goes against snow hopes but I rather have warm and sunny weather now.

Me too. I’d be more up for it if we got a historic snow event out of it (just to say  I experienced it), but it’s hard enough to get a northerly to deliver snow in mid-winter, let alone April.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

So ECM goes for a repeat at day 10?

144 not looking so west based any more is it.... where's Don? One of these charts is before day 10!

ECH1-144.gif

ECH1-240.gif

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another go now at 216, you aint gonne see that for a while

I'd rather nail my willy to a piece of wood!

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Just now, General Cluster said:

I'd rather nail my willy to a piece of wood!

Good luck with that mate!  Look we can only comment on what the models are showing and they are interesting for cold next week, and it is getting into the reliable now.  A cold spell in April would be highly unusual given recent years, wouldn’t you say?

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Au contraire, powerful convection on a deeply cold N’ly is a weather lover’s dream. We’ve got months ahead of us for sun and warmth.

And we have months of half-hearted cold behind us

This is utter dross and no good for coldies (unless you're high up somewhere) or warmies

image.thumb.png.01e3ba7c5b55d0afb87b2a0ec5071582.png

But for MBY, the hype:

image.thumb.png.1907c36c461f1e7cffdabaf5355da027.png

and the reality:

image.thumb.png.2ba3779e6e8ca2317444ae185ba779db.png

Much like the winter just gone here!

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I'd rather nail my willy to a piece of wood!

If we get another go that would be better than benign weather.

As for Willy, do you mean this one?image.thumb.png.6bb01f24313cba9151b639da204c5fdb.png

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Got to say, too, that the much-maligned GFS (assuming next week's crud verifies that is) has handled this so much better than the ECM and UKMO. Those 2 have been all over the place at 144 and 168 lately

Last night the UKMO completely cut off the N'ly

Utterly typical that this happens in April. You can bet your bottom dollar if this was Dec, Jan or Feb this cold spell would disappear as quickly as... well... as quickly as lying snow in April

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Got to say, too, that the much-maligned GFS (assuming next week's crud verifies that is) has handled this so much better than the ECM and UKMO. Those 2 have been all over the place at 144 and 168 lately

Last night the UKMO completely cut off the N'ly

Utterly typical that this happens in April. You can bet your bottom dollar if this was Dec, Jan or Feb this cold spell would disappear as quickly as... well... as quickly as lying snow in April

Some of us have also been much-maligned for banging the drum over winter for the Parallel GFS, aka now the OP.

One thing noted is that it still has a tendency to find the correct solution then wobble once the others get on-board... so far so good this time round, even considering some slight delays to the original signal.... 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

All alingned.. the arctic outbreak is on.. we just need to decipher to what degree nxt 3/4 days.. intriguing/interesting doesn’t even cut it.....

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
5 minutes ago, LRD said:

Got to say, too, that the much-maligned GFS (assuming next week's crud verifies that is) has handled this so much better than the ECM and UKMO. Those 2 have been all over the place at 144 and 168 lately

Last night the UKMO completely cut off the N'ly

Utterly typical that this happens in April. You can bet your bottom dollar if this was Dec, Jan or Feb this cold spell would disappear as quickly as... well... as quickly as lying snow in April

Yes, it does look like another win for the GFS.  I said so earlier - as far as UK weather is concerned, if Greenland heights are the main driver, it is the only scenario it seems to have the edge over the ECM/UKMO.  This one not nailed yet, but like the scenario in the middle of winter, it seems to have handled this better.  

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Some of us have also been much-maligned for banging the drum over winter for the Parallel GFS, aka now the OP.

One thing noted is that it still has a tendency to find the correct solution then wobble once the others get on-board... so far so good this time round, even considering some slight delays to the original signal.... 

The GFS that we have now - is that what used to be the Para back in the winter? Ah right, didn't know that. Ta

Even the Para used to overblow cold but it seemed to do better than the old GFS

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, it does look like another win for the GFS.  I said so earlier - as far as UK weather is concerned, if Greenland heights are the main driver, it is the only scenario it seems to have the edge over the ECM/UKMO.  This one not nailed yet, but like the scenario in the middle of winter, it seems to have handled this better.  

Interestingly the GFS 12z ens came in milder and a few ensemble members have the northerly way out west. I think the northerly will happen but it isn't set in stone till T96 either. In all likelihood, I think it will happen though given all the OPS are going for it.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, it does look like another win for the GFS.  I said so earlier - as far as UK weather is concerned, if Greenland heights are the main driver, it is the only scenario it seems to have the edge over the ECM/UKMO.  This one not nailed yet, but like the scenario in the middle of winter, it seems to have handled this better.  

Agreed.

Those who do want this wind and hail fest to come off, a friendly warning. Through the winter just gone there were loads of juicy looking charts spewed out by all models. In this part of the world the reality was far, far removed from the promise of the charts (as I said in a previous post in a flippant way)

Do you know what, if we were guaranteed an April 1981 event I'd probably be egging it on. But that's unlikely and I just fear it's going to be a grim, horrible slush, rain and hail-dominated spell that benefits hardly anybody - coldies and warmies alike - except some coldie sheep and cattle in the Highlands of Scotland and maybe Cumbria and Snowdonia

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
7 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Interestingly the GFS 12z ens came in milder and a few ensemble members have the northerly way out west. I think the northerly will happen but it isn't set in stone till T96 either. In all likelihood, I think it will happen though given all the OPS are going for it.

Wow, yes, I've just had a look. Thanks for the heads-up. Those ensembles are nowhere near as good for cold as earlier GFS ensemble runs today. Could be a blip of course but interesting and offers some glimmer of hope

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 minute ago, LRD said:

Wow, yes, I've just had a look. Thanks for the heads-up. Those ensembles are nowhere near as good for cold as earlier GFS ensemble runs today. Could be a blip of course but interesting and offers some glimmer of hope

I'll happily take P13 but I'm clutching at straws. If the cold northerly does go wrong, it'll be because of an area of low pressure between Greenland and Iceland complicating things.

If we did get an April 1981 event, I'd be open to this coming off. However this pattern is just a marginal mess. Sleet and hail showers during the day. Something interesting may happen if a band of heavy and organised precip develops but that's a lottery. For most places, the most interesting thing will be the cloudscapes in the heavy showers.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...