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Model output discussion 10/02/21


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Looks like the chase is back on folks...phew! For a minute there I though I might have to start talking to my family again 😅

The Return of the Beast from the East !  Editors are still putting the finishing touches to it but haven’t decided yet when or if it’s going to be released ! They’re thinking of perhaps putt

Morning folks,havent posted in a while.Hope UK/IE did well out of this cold spell,we have also been paid a visit by Arctic BLAST with uppers of -20 today. EPS for my location next 15 days Keep me unde

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    2 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

     

    582D3648-E539-42D9-924A-13D530429751.png

    It looks like the professionals are seeing something we can’t see AT THE MOMENT 

    Edited by Scandinavian High.
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    image.thumb.png.1517fb7773b46ec412bbc9a811a96b60.png

    Some lovely springlike charts on the GFS 06Z run. Some way off yet but this looks a feasible evolution to me. Looks more likely than a return to cold with low pressure over Iceland.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

    The long range forecasts, monthly types. Why not just look at the ECM's site and check the weekly charts, for the next 4 weeks. They are pushed every Monday and Thursday, You'll note the written text on the met sites and other blogs and twitter et al undergoes the major changes in conjunction with Tuesdays and Fridays release of the extended. Could you write the monthly based off these? I bet you could.

     

    Editing to add, a useful comparison. UK Met Office are running the weeks starting the day they publish, so each day. Anyway, trying to match to the ECM weeklies, one gets this text

    From the weekend of the 20th, there are signs of more widespread settled conditions becoming established - which would correspond with temperatures falling back to below average, and with increased incidence of overnight frost and fog.

    Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Thu 11 Feb 2021

    Thursday 25 Feb - Thursday 11 Mar

    Into late February there is a signal for higher than average pressure to expand westwards leading to an increased chance of snow showers redeveloping in the east, for conditions in the north to become generally quite settled and for unsettled weather in the south, with disruptive snow possible.

     

    Here's last week in February from Mondays run. 500 Anomaly. I'll check same week when the updated forecast is out tomorrow. 

    image.thumb.png.07f47a4e0fbee92faec50964b66269df.png

    Sea Surface

    image.thumb.png.fcfb21dbf388dc61e301914641150d36.png

    Temperature

    image.thumb.png.f2161cf10d9b4e1a1a56528e6b1cf8c0.png

    And Precipitation Aonomaly

    image.thumb.png.f0896fcfca2f530b58f13c8018387828.png

    Edited by Downburst
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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    7 minutes ago, Scandinavian High. said:

    It looks like the professionals are seeing something we can’t see AT THE MOMENT 

    I'm definitely sitting up now Ian F has mentioned that, tbf the para was showing it for next week, maybe it was just jumping the gun by a few days?

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    Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

    A reminder that stand alone met office forecast views should go into their own thread-link

    https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/?do=getNewComment

    I have just moved one post over there.

    Thanks.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    47 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

    I think he means this was probably the coldest/snowiest shot of the winter

    Oh yes, good point.  I think if that is what he is saying then that is feasible as we are approaching mid February with chances of deep sustained cold reducing.  However, it is still possible as with March 2013 and late February/early March 2018 but they were pretty exceptional.

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
    31 minutes ago, Don said:

    Oh yes, good point.  I think if that is what he is saying then that is feasible as we are approaching mid February with chances of deep sustained cold reducing.  However, it is still possible as with March 2013 and late February/early March 2018 but they were pretty exceptional.

    March 2006 battleground.

    This one currently could produce something surprising yet.

    Models may have this mild all wrong,this cold air will take some shifting.

    Edited by Snowyowl9
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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

    I've not been on here since last week and was quite shocked by the many calls of Winter is over again! Firstly its not really been that kind of Winter,cold spells followed by milder for a few days...its never wise to call an end for proceedings on the back of a change in conditions,whether it be Winter or Summer. After viewing the ens I can see many showing Heights building later next week,with some of them building them N/NW..so the Exeter update makes sense...which by the way as been just updated and shows the same likely outcome..  Also worth noting was we had another minor Strat warming 10 days ago so its feasible that we could enter yet another very cold snap in the next week to 10 days...I still feel this Winter will have a nasty shock in its tail end,before serving up something more severe next Winter....(they come in clusters don't forget)   Don't get to down hearted at the sight of some average output guys...thus Winter as been far from average or normal...so don't be surprised to witness yet another blast or 2.

    @sheikhy so sorry to hear about the loss of your nan mate..terrible news for you...hopefully another dumping of snow to come which you can honour in the name of your nan...stay well all.

    gens-3-1-252.png

    gens-11-1-264.png

    Well said Matt. I know a few days away would do me good too, I might even make the most of some milder outdoor temperatures. Plenty going on to keep an interest here. 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    40 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    it won’t just be the ec46 .....if they are expecting another reversal wave to downwell then that will likely be with glosea support ...

    Not sure where any wave downwelling is coming from, the mid strat now really would only equate to a uk or mid lat high and benign conditions at best in the trop.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Disappointing that the block didnt hold on ,but cold air not far away,and looks like back in the freezer end of the following week,thats my take on it,so interesting watching the models pick up on the next big chill.

     

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    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    it won’t just be the ec46 .....if they are expecting another reversal wave to downwell then that will likely be with glosea support ...

    There was a lot of talk on here about the failure of glosea seasonal 2019 & 2020 winter forecasts. 

    Can I assume that glosea also provide mid term or monthly forecasts, or, do the Met use some other model for these?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    8 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    GFS 12z is just starting to roll out. Lets hope we see a big step back towards the cold we saw a few days ago for next week

    Do not think the model roller coaster ride is over just yet........

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall
    9 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    GFS 12z is just starting to roll out. Lets hope we see a big step back towards the cold we saw a few days ago for next week

    We can only wish 🌨️

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    4 minutes ago, Cavehill Snow said:

    There was a lot of talk on here about the failure of glosea seasonal 2019 & 2020 winter forecasts. 

    Can I assume that glosea also provide mid term or monthly forecasts, or, do the Met use some other model for these?

    Glosea is used for monthly and beyond

    i presume they look at glosea, mogreps and ec 46 clustering to get a handle on the way forward ......hence the number of 15/30 dayers  that mention uncertainty! 

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    • Paul locked and unpinned this topic
    Message added by Paul,

    Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
    For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
    For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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