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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
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Tbf with the sun gaining strength now these cold shots from the north are less bothersome today for example has been lovely in the sun been in the garden all day, plus with spring models can flip overnight to warmer conditions 

Edited by Britneyfan
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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

Not really what you want to see in Spring?..

image.thumb.png.da6f9347974b6dabddebc2b0530266a8.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, Britneyfan said:

Tbf with the sun gaining strength now these cold shorts from the north are less bothersome today for example has been lovely in the sun been in the garden all day, plus with spring models can flip overnight to warmer conditions 

They must be the ones @markyo wears!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The control is also gunning for it post day ten...

gensnh-0-1-264.thumb.png.46591f21d9ecd994f2022c6f6cd0c396.pnggensnh-0-0-264.thumb.png.9cdf43b292d894962d5933bd569e955f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

GFS ensembles generally keeping things on the cool/cold side for the foreseeable. Signs of maybe a recovery near the end but too far off yet.

 

Looks like warm weather fans will have to wait a bit...

GFS.thumb.PNG.634b24cf6dd1890e642b8503a348f18b.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Can't help but think we are paying the price of about 6 weeks in the main of benign weather since the last cold spell earlier in February. The long duration with no polar outbreak in that time, helping to bottle up stored cold to the north and perhaps it was only a matter of time it bled our way.. 

Anyhow, back to the models, a predominantly cold outlook, no break whatsoever, with heights generally sitting to our SW and west but never ridging in enough to cut off the cold NW flow. Outcome renewed northerly attacks and significantly below average temperatures. May see a bit of rain or sleet from time to time but mostly a dry outlook away from the far north where snow showers are the order of the day. Many cold nights forecast.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Oh dear, the GEFS ensembles just keep getting worse:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

Come on you anomalies? Give us some warmth?

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
14 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Oh dear, the GEFS ensembles just keep getting worse:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

Come on you anomalies? Give us some warmth?

Crazy control run bouncing along rhe minus 10 line for a good part of the run!!

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Posted
  • Location: Buckinghamshire
  • Location: Buckinghamshire

Just a quick update.. 

As an example of tomorrow's snow chance here's the Gefs probability of precipitation falling as snow for the uk tomorrow.. I wouldn't read too much into it but you can see tomorrow still more likely as was said yesterday for shower activity to develop fairly widely for England and Wales, Wales will see more frequent snow showers later tonight along with possibly east anglia by the morning.. not everyone catching these. A few locations in more central parts of England possibly getting a few snow showers through the afternoon others just one or two and some none at all again. ?️

Gefs..

EUROPE_OVERVIEW_30.thumb.jpg.23bb5fdfc1da6a8e9e0cddda916c0c45.jpg

EUROPE_OVERVIEW_36.thumb.jpg.22197390e24ec68354070238615b34f3.jpg

Icon..

383122764_12_27_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.0f166639c1b668b4226d7c28ad076b0b.png

1386250314_12_30_ukpreciptype(1).thumb.png.6e6419fcf77de3467336aaf0a3f0c51a.png

This possibility has already been mentioned with the snow chance increasing for thursday and friday in the north though Saturday is also now looking likely to be quite cold and quite like Mr Frost said.. sleet and snow showers possibly come back into many northern areas although perhaps some of any showers that develop being wintry in the south too on saturday. 

12_78_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.fc64225e6f1810d82fcf5bd091635c4c.png

12_102_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.58e81f083debbeed67151f10b43c2798.png

I still think the Gfs has the pattern over the country wrong during the first half of next week with the colder and also unsettled weather that it is showing for much of the country.

The Ecm ensembles average show what I still feel is the more likely scenario though the high mabye slightly further south and west than what it's wednesday and thursday chart is showing..  a gradual rise in temperature atleast at first with this Scotland again probably remaining unsettled with possible snow on high ground.

EUROPE_HGT500_AVG_168.thumb.jpg.17b6137dbce79ac16451276c572964e8.jpg

667375110_EUROPE_HGT500_AVG_192(1).thumb.jpg.d80465488682c98223dee2041d2bf613.jpg

EUROPE_HGT500_AVG_216.thumb.jpg.bd5a0d67c18dc8f2939be0472d0da1b8.jpg

2139095518_EUROPE_HGT500_AVG_240(1).thumb.jpg.66f67abfc908b6f998646fdc1c36148b.jpg

Although a chance The Gfs may still end up being right or at least closer so not to be ignored.

Edited by jordan smith
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM T240 and mean:

A5557468-880C-4F60-BE20-E4AAC0EE4509.thumb.png.299d38699bedd4f478f85982fe58283e.pngD91551DD-8BEA-4E6C-A08B-35DC5BE1BE94.thumb.png.b7ecf9b22f53f660dd50c382f1ab53b1.png

It isn’t that inspiring to be honest, nothing horrible, but nothing nice, and we yearn for something nice after the last year

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Posted
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: Central Wales 250m (820ft) ASL

Yes. Cross-model agreement for some increased instability and further south compared to today, over Scotland, Northern England and Wales in the early afternoon allowing development of afternoon / evening showers well inland over England and Wales, moving SE. Temperatures mostly just within a couple of degrees of freezing (mind you, the EURO4 shown here was a bit lower than the others) so possibly settling for a while in places if you land a shower. However locally white in the event notable weather for the first week of April in terms of air mass.

2E41A8ED-EA1D-413E-A213-0BED44E329C9.thumb.png.9cd0bb83eaf1bf688b2f469e0199cc6f.png1B3DC89F-9D14-4AB5-9B0E-0AAD01B54866.thumb.gif.05119921e7d4c4b242dc96b3e45798ee.gif

CFE2C2DB-3BAB-4ADA-9A8D-805F4C77C52E.thumb.gif.b0c0f8ac500373dde14f7b889ec9b219.gif09E39530-517A-4F25-B277-88FB8F5ECB67.thumb.gif.be04d9a99fc4f7e159d56e9f57477a1a.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

Wintry showers are likely to be more widespread tomorrow. Initially in Scotland at first but becoming more widespread for many parts of England and Wales.❄️

As always showers are hit and miss so not everybody see one.

4ADC9C98-BB85-4910-8FD4-82A05A06E0CE.thumb.jpeg.da7c222f6219b9d29db16f2a27d81757.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
17 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

Indeed i dont disagree, but the only thing i would add is that to get to this current chart, previous ones have evolved consistently. They could of course be slightly or completely wrong, but personally when the evolution is as smooth as it has been, then id suggest the Anomalies are the most favoured option.

But i do admit my longing for warmth may be influencing how im reading things. lol

 

.............. looks like @bluearmys words of caution to me yesterday were well founded as REALLY frustratingly the anomalies have backed down from the milder southern high pressure prediction yesterday. What pees me off is that 80% of the time they are bang on or close to "right" and the time they arent is the time we really need them to be right. This cold is killing wildlife, sadly.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
15 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

.............. looks like @bluearmys words of caution to me yesterday were well founded as REALLY frustratingly the anomalies have backed down from the milder southern high pressure prediction yesterday. What pees me off is that 80% of the time they are bang on or close to "right" and the time they arent is the time we really need them to be right. This cold is killing wildlife, sadly.

The 500 mb anomaly charts, both NOAA and ECMWF are quite unusual I think. The almost total lack of the usual deep vortex off sw Greenland is not something we are used to seeing. The anomaly charts, as they show this morning/last evening, are having a lot of trouble deciding just how the upper air pattern will play out. Eventually the more westerly pattern will take over but when and in what form is what seems hard to arrive at. Really interesting and intriguing watching the models trying to 'see' what is beyond the 3-5 day time scale.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

The 500 mb anomaly charts, both NOAA and ECMWF are quite unusual I think. The almost total lack of the usual deep vortex off sw Greenland is not something we are used to seeing. The anomaly charts, as they show this morning/last evening, are having a lot of trouble deciding just how the upper air pattern will play out. Eventually the more westerly pattern will take over but when and in what form is what seems hard to arrive at. Really interesting and intriguing watching the models trying to 'see' what is beyond the 3-5 day time scale.

Yes John they paint a rather messy surface analysis this morning, albeit temps below average

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-8531200.thumb.png.6fb7832700e36e34466b0f3a6e7f65ac.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-8531200.thumb.png.db2f4ff79ac7cfe8eb613e1bcbef56bf.png

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Tuesday 6 April and the 500 mb anomaly charts etc

Ec only again and a rather unusual pattern showing this morning; chiefly over the far eastern states/Canada, both a cut off upper low and east of it a centre of upper high with the trough that was over/near the e of the uk (I thinl?) now aligned ne-sw into the atlantic affecting the far n but with a more or less w’ly flow in the south!

Noo 6-10 has no ridge but a cut off upper low se of Newfoundland and very high +ve values ne of this +300 dm nw of this feature, effectively blotting out where the usual main polar trough normally sits!. The effect is to gove a flow n of w into the uk with a trough into Europe much as it had at the weekend.

All told unusual charts to me in 10-12 years of daily checking them. What they mean in terms of surface weather 6-10 days ahead is hard to decide, first are the upper air charts going to look like this in 3-4 days time=no iea!, so no use pretending I can give a forecast for the surface. Currently we seem ‘stuck’ with UK Met Fax charts as offering the best guidance out to 144 hours. Their upper air charts etc out to 168 show what their models are suggesting, see below;

They show a marked 500 mb trough ne-sw over the UK on 10th, very slowly edging e and also very slow warming out a bit by the 12 th. Looking at the final chart there seems little chance of a s of w 500 mb flow developing any time soon based on these charts, and they have been pretty consistent over the last 48 hours of this pattern.

I sit on the fence.

https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#UKmet-prognosis-00z

 

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

.............. looks like @bluearmys words of caution to me yesterday were well founded as REALLY frustratingly the anomalies have backed down from the milder southern high pressure prediction yesterday. What pees me off is that 80% of the time they are bang on or close to "right" and the time they arent is the time we really need them to be right. This cold is killing wildlife, sadly.

Those damn anomalies are always, but always, spot on in the winter months when they suggest it will be mild as the GFS  10-day and even 5-day outlooks are promising us an English Lapland! 

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