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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

A rather depressing GEFS 00Z ensembles, this morning; no sign of much warmth, throughout:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

Though, acolytes of the Marquis de Sade may think it's rather spiffing!

 

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Posted
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
36 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all!

Hope you all had a good Easter!

Great to see/read all the snow reports throughout the regional threads this morning! ☃️

Snow/wintry showers risk again tomorrow - could pop up just about anywhere!

Tuesday 12:00

877682B2-E1DA-4E04-A493-E0F3B7DB0BAD.thumb.png.78221c1ec9004b504b18df1c44de1ce4.png
 

15:00

8E68689F-C392-448C-BB2E-563742C33CB4.thumb.png.9b94272561bc53cc0dbb43e51d981aa2.png
 

Keep an eye on the UK all time lowest daily maximum temperature record for April - current figure to beat is -1.1C, 01/04/1917, Durham and Macclesfield.

That is under threat! Aviemore, Dalwhinnie and Braemar could all get very close tomorrow! (All places have official Met Office stations)

Looking further ahead to the weekend.

Friday 15:00

2D5463E1-2A79-4B73-BC87-6FA0ACEF9E74.thumb.png.54ac74c72b7e983adcc57f72bc438408.png3324FC70-8263-4BE9-A696-65A2379DCBA1.thumb.png.a7de6f92d78ff652705aaca79928766d.png3C2DAA81-072F-4AEB-8FA3-49B90CBE915C.thumb.png.e239341e9b0be0e744bed1d1ad5581d6.png  
 

UKMO for Saturday:

B0AA02E9-8560-408F-A2A0-9E6F01AF6797.thumb.gif.b7b44b7e4eb92b849d74e4c0e5ffb9c6.gif88B9FFE3-2BE9-42DC-A07F-AEA9E97C05DF.thumb.gif.7352b7da6c01a4154461e2c9d6db3955.gif
 

Chilly outlook at the moment! 

All the best to you all!

Loch Glascarnoch and Balmoral probably also strong contenders. 

 

Altnaharra probably a bit of a stretch due to its lower altitude and, perhaps, relative proximity to the Northern coast - though otherwise in the sweet spot of the low uppers/coldest air mass etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
Just now, General Cluster said:

It looks likely that, after umpteen years of Springtime near-misses, 2021 will the year in which the PV decays over Blighty:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Which begs the question: Where have all the coldies gone?

I'm here don't u worry mwa ha haha ha haaaaa!!! 

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Its again completing unrelating, the -5C isotherm really doesn't belong over the south coast as we head into the final tercile of April. Universal ensemble agreement out beyond ten days suggesting unusually strong confidence in the coming short to mid term period. 

 Looks like this is going to be much more drawn out than the northerly of mid May 2013 when that notable spell of weather followed me down to North Africa and gave me max temps of 15-17C and rain in Marrakesh (when the avg should have been 28-30C)

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

another anomaly vs op battle is emerging, because the noaa charts do not support the gfs re-load of the northerlies a la 1975 style via high pressure to our west after next weekend

 

814day_03warm.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

another anomaly vs op battle is emerging, because the noaa charts do not support the gfs re-load of the northerlies a la 1975 style via high pressure to our west after next weekend

 

814day_03warm.gif

I'm rooting for your anomalies mmr.... I want to be sitting in the pub garden with just a t-shirt on instead of having to dig out the ski gear I bought last year from deep deep storage!  

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
1 hour ago, General Cluster said:

It looks likely that, after umpteen years of Springtime near-misses, 2021 will the year in which the PV decays so cold air ends up over Blighty:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Which begs the question: Where have all the coldies gone?

And now, I'm starting to fear that we may be stuck in the current rut for far longer than I'd hoped:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Yes, there isn’t much to get excited about in the models over the next two weeks or so, but it could all change very quickly so we’ll have to keep watching.  Oh, how I miss the CFS on Meteociel and being able to see all those baking summer heatwaves ahead.....   Just think, there’s a butterfly wafting it’s wing somewhere right now which will end up as a Spanish plume sometime in July.....

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

another anomaly vs op battle is emerging, because the noaa charts do not support the gfs re-load of the northerlies a la 1975 style via high pressure to our west after next weekend

 

814day_03warm.gif

Well, I certainly hope the anomalies are where we're headed, mushy. So I'll prepare for the worst and hope for the best; as there's nae much joy from the GEFS 06Z ensemble:

t850Bedfordshire.png    t2mBedfordshire.png

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

 

39 minutes ago, Frigid said:

One word. Cold

303CAF06-A4DC-4BCE-9F52-98FECF44AC65.thumb.png.da012345bcb5443ce3cbd49ddd5f7c34.png

Yes you can see that there is almost a permanent trough over us for the next couple of weeks re GFS 6z

This can be seen looking at the 6z jetstream

image.thumb.png.046a47ce95bea77683fb84a1e6a23b90.pngimage.thumb.png.13e52a5974bf477173b682860f4598ee.pngimage.thumb.png.d77e4e00ca6870a60e76840934749547.png

image.thumb.png.12797d1d9638e606dc661646347307c5.png

Seems to be a reinforcing patten, although as stated by MMR above the anomalies paint a different picture therefore still every chance this could change . However It does seem that with the present model chart runs  the demise of the PV from its usual territory is resulting in cold air being leaked out over our part of the hemisphere..

image.thumb.png.19da2e54734a14e1e80fedecd6349c40.pngimage.thumb.png.c05610ba0c1d93d61ce32227193bbee1.png

 

Edited by minus10
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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

The cold air is well and truly here now with many reports of snow flurries being seen widely this morning.❄️

Just been outside and that wind is raw!

226E27D0-BD2A-4C90-8171-4B93B15B5AF9.thumb.jpeg.431b90bb2041468ba530fbeec0d6877d.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
40 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

another anomaly vs op battle is emerging, because the noaa charts do not support the gfs re-load of the northerlies a la 1975 style via high pressure to our west after next weekend

 

814day_03warm.gif

Looks like that Atlantic trough will work slowly east and that promotes the possibility of a sou’wester draw of air - however, if this remains within a broad upper trough across W Europe then it’s likely less cold rather than possibly warm for the U.K. 

could be coin flip time rob .....

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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Very chilly 06Z GFS OP as has been widely reported. 850s negative for most of the next two weeks.

Control is, if anything, worse until the very end if you are looking for warmth.

GFS keeps a persistent ridge from Greenland south east into the Atlantic just to the west of the British isles which blocks off the Atlantic pressure systems and leaves the British Isles vulnerable to periodic cyclogenesis close to Iceland with the LP moving SE towards Scotland.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
47 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Looks like that Atlantic trough will work slowly east and that promotes the possibility of a sou’wester draw of air - however, if this remains within a broad upper trough across W Europe then it’s likely less cold rather than possibly warm for the U.K. 

could be coin flip time rob .....

Indeed i dont disagree, but the only thing i would add is that to get to this current chart, previous ones have evolved consistently. They could of course be slightly or completely wrong, but personally when the evolution is as smooth as it has been, then id suggest the Anomalies are the most favoured option.

But i do admit my longing for warmth may be influencing how im reading things. lol

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

Just because there is ensemble agreement for 10 days out doesn't mean that it should be taken as gospel.

Some appear to think that agreement=certainty. That is just not the case and we have seen sudden shifts in the ensembles many times before.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

 

Some extremely low dew points this afternoon going down to -14°C! The air is incredibly dry.

 

As mentioned yesterday this isn't good if you want wintry showers as the dry air prevents any convection from building hence the dry radar for much of the UK.

50963695_DewPoint1.thumb.PNG.c649136bd050bb97e10f6cc98d5d8fc2.PNG208395320_DewPoint2.thumb.jpg.0ea245228fe2bac8282ba60d2278cb5a.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
4 minutes ago, HellItsHot said:

Been following this forum for about 5 years and I still don’t know what dew points are....

This should help

 

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Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m

GFS 12z is still going strong with the rather cold theme/pattern. A higher ground snow event possible on the 10th and a NorthEasterly (or pseudo NorthEasterly?) setting up after 174h. 

Update : And another cold Northwesterly ready to come down at 234h. Arctic just won't give up. 

Edited by Empire Of Snow
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