Model output discussion 10/02/21

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

I wouldn’t call it ‘snowy’ for any highly populated areas of the Uk to be honest Perhaps a few flurries and something more substantial for Scottish highlands and snowdonia? 

To my untrained eyes ? ?..exposed northern and eastern areas to the gale force Northerly arctic air flow get battered by frequent, heavy snow / hail showers on mon & tues? ️..maybe enough to build a snowman?..in the shade!  

[Iceman2606]

 

A very pleasant Easter Sunday coming up with plenty of sunshine and temps in the low to mid teens widely but don't let that fool you!☀

Overnight Sunday into Easter Monday brings in very cold northerly winds with possible wintry showers in places.❄

[Thundery wintry showers]

2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

I wouldn’t call it ‘snowy’ for any highly populated areas of the Uk to be honest Perhaps a few flurries and something more substantial for Scottish highlands and snowdonia? 

Probably not the most densely populated area of the UK (the south-east) but I see plenty of potential for widespread snow showers in NE England, Lincolnshire and East Anglia on Monday 5th and then over much of Wales and the West Country, possibly extending into parts of central southern England, on the 6th.  The GFS 18Z also has more in the way of showers breaking out inland on the 6th than earlier runs.

With it being early April I don't expect lasting snow cover at low levels but parts of NE England and Lincolnshire, maybe Norfolk, could have a covering early on the 5th, and parts of Wales and the south-west on the 6th, with snow showers moving through around dawn.

Edited April 3, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[MildCarlilse]

23 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Probably not the most densely populated area of the UK (the south-east) but I see plenty of potential for widespread snow showers in NE England, Lincolnshire and East Anglia on Monday 5th and then over much of Wales and the West Country, possibly extending into parts of central southern England, on the 6th.  The GFS 18Z also has more in the way of showers breaking out inland on the 6th than earlier runs.

With it being early April I don't expect lasting snow cover at low levels but parts of NE England and Lincolnshire, maybe Norfolk, could have a covering early on the 5th, and parts of Wales and the south-west on the 6th, with snow showers moving through around dawn.

And adding to that,many parts of Highland and Northern Scotland including the Outer Hebrides,Orkney and Shetland.Oh and there will be lying snow in many of aforementioned too.

[Guest]

Big backwards shift on the GFS ops run this morning keeping the cold weather in situ for almost the entire run with multiple reinforcements of the northerly as heights to the north west never really feminism. Its probably the worst model output I can ever remember in April. That said it is an outlier towards the end of the run however looks like any hope high pressure will topple over us after a few days looks increasingly unlikely this morning.

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Big backwards shift on the GFS ops run this morning keeping the cold weather in situ for almost the entire run with multiple reinforcements of the northerly as heights to the north west never really feminism. Its probably the worst model output I can ever remember in April. That said it is an outlier towards the end of the run however looks like any hope high pressure will topple over us after a few days looks increasingly unlikely this morning.

Aye -- a right kick in the goolies!

    

    

I bet @markyo's reaction to these charts was slightly different from my own!

But, never fear: ens is here!  

    

Edited April 4, 2021 by General Cluster

[johnholmes]

The 'backward shift' from GFS may not be correct. Certainly the upper air charts do not support that.

[Griff]

Big wins for the GFS and Liverpool this weekend!

Here's a chart courtesy of the much maligned Denis (PV-Forecast on twitter), often mocked for being the most over enthusiastic chaser of us all, making myself and @MATTWOLVES seem sensible!

Cheers, and happy easter all

 

 

[minus10]

38 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Aye -- a right kick in the goolies!

    

    

I bet @markyo's reaction to these charts was slightly different from my own!

But, never fear: ens is here!  

    

Seems whatever the weather it is going to be a while before we see proper warm temps again. The ens while becoming less cold are never screaming warm.

The hp on the ecm 0z pointing to frosts being a problem. Tough period coming up for us gardeners and growers. Still today should be nice and still the chance of seeing a flake or two...or at least some interesting cloud....happy easter...have a nice day all..

[Tim Bland]

GFS is a cold outlier at the end thankfully 

[Cambrian]

The EURO4 is showing a band of snow for tomorrow morning (from the second of the two cold fronts I guess) across Northern Ireland, Wales, through Yorkshire, Humberside, Lincolnshire and Norfolk. In subsequent frames, though decaying, this moves down to the London area. Looking at the temperatures in front of it, most likely to settle only on the higher ground, but generally below freezing after the front. 

By Tuesday morning, snow showers over Scotland, much of Ireland, with some into Wales and South West England.  This looks like the beginning of that little feature that the GEM is still showing to move down the UK on Tuesday, shown clipping Belfast at 7am. Temperatures below freezing in most places by then.  Happy Easter to all.

Edited April 4, 2021 by Cambrian

[Frigid]

GFS 00Z looks to be an outlier but if it came off, I really wouldn't be surprised if the CET came in lower than March. Just a thought

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Lovely day out there today....but the cold is a knocking...by this time tomorrow!!   Hereeeessss jonny!

It's impressive cold without a doubt...-12c upper air temps in places! That should bring a nip to the sensitive regions. Colder shots possible over the next 10 days to 2 weeks...could be later this Month early May before we finally say goodbye to these Arctic shots! But don't folks,they will be back before you can say...Hello SUMMER! 

Have a great Easter...treat yourselves...I think you deserve it.

Edited April 4, 2021 by MATTWOLVES

[Tim Bland]

14 hours ago, Jon Snow said:

To my untrained eyes ? ?..exposed northern and eastern areas to the gale force Northerly arctic air flow get battered by frequent, heavy snow / hail showers on mon & tues? ️..maybe enough to build a snowman?..in the shade!  

Fingers crossed for those areas,  but personally I can’t see any widespread ‘snowy’ weather. Perhaps a few showers for some which melt easily but I doubt there will be many who describe the weather tomorrow as ‘snowy’ and I’ll be amazed if there are many people that are able to build a snowman / go sledging away from Scottish highlands / North York  moors and Durham etc 

[Matt Jones]

One thing is for sure it's going to turn cold by this time tomorrow almost UK wide, but the second blast to me remains doubtful, I would not be surprised to only see a glancing blow followed by a warm up even though the latest GFS remains cold well into it's run presently. Incidentally the near useless met office symbols have heavy snow for NE Lincolnshire first thing tomorrow morning, unsurprisingly no mention in the text forecast!   

Edited April 4, 2021 by Matt Jones

[Frosty.]

11 hours ago, MildCarlilse said:

And adding to that,many parts of Highland and Northern Scotland including the Outer Hebrides,Orkney and Shetland.Oh and there will be lying snow in many of aforementioned too.

Well said..those areas tend to get ignored!..anyway, the much colder air will soon be with us all according too the GFS / GEFS / ECM / UKMO / GEM / NAVGEM / and whatever other model is out there..merry Christmas! ..I mean Happy Easter!     

Edited April 4, 2021 by Jon Snow

[lassie23]

27 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Well said..those areas tend to get ignored!..anyway, the much colder air will soon be with us all according too the GFS / GEFS / ECM / UKMO / GEM / NAVGEM / and whatever other model is out there..merry Christmas! ..I mean Happy Easter!     

May all your Eastermasses be white

[PiscesStar]

17 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

May all your Eastermasses be white

TOP POST OF THE EASTER GOES TO

[Frosty.]

I’ve just been looking at the charts,  (met office video)..there’s actually two cold fronts pushing south / south east..omg this is so exciting!...I’m not into the whole Imby thing, I just like to look at the nationwide picture and this is quite a stunning change in progress when you think back to how summery it was a few days ago..enjoy / endure..whatever you’re preference..the duality of spring..in motion!!   

Edited April 4, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Climate Man]

Residual heights look to hold up over Greenland for the foreseeable on the GFS. Potential for a CET below average for April. Certainly no repeat of last year in sight. 

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

59 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Residual heights look to hold up over Greenland for the foreseeable on the GFS. Potential for a CET below average for April. Certainly no repeat of last year in sight. 

 

 

 

 

Yup, GFS sticking with stonking heights up over Greeny, its really going to be utterly horrid.

GFS has down here barely getting to double figures for the next 10days. To put that in context we've had just 3 sub 10C maxes the last 210 April days (7 years). 2013 managed 4 straight 10C maxes which was the longest run since the miserable April of 1986.

Edited April 4, 2021 by Alderc

[Frosty.]

Now look here chaps, I really don’t care that it’s only Orkney & Shetland that witness 504 dam thicknesses at midnight or thereabouts according to the Gfs 6z operational..504 dam (-15 T850’s)..in early April is off the scale EPIC..for sure it would be epic in winter too..I’ve always dreamed of 492 dam..call me crazy but I’m just you’re average weather enthusiast which is why I’m part of the Netweather community!..why else would I be here if I wasn’t interested in weather or weather extremes?..go figure..  

Edited April 4, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Cheshire Freeze]

23 minutes ago, Andypvfc said:

Must admit unless I'm getting a lower temp than the record of minus 20 in Stoke or 8 inches of Snow, I just don't get why this is going be exciting. Lol

It’s not. It’s just nuisance value without the instability. 

[Iceman2606]

Incredibly low dew points for tomorrow going down to -14°C on GFS 12z!

Wouldn't be good for convection if you want wintry showers as the air will be extremely dry.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Not much change in the outlook for Monday/Tuesday, still looking snowy for parts of NE England, Lincolnshire and Norfolk early on Monday with some areas possibly waking up to a covering even on low ground, and parts of Wales and the south-west could see a covering to low levels on Tuesday morning.  With the strong April sun and maximum temperatures of 4 to 7C for most, perhaps touching 8 or 9C in the south, the snow won't stick around for long at low levels though.  In the northern half of Scotland snow cover could stick around with just modest elevation though (thaws in sunny intervals, re-accumulations during showers), with an impressively cold airmass for the time of year and maxima not far above freezing.

Current outputs suggest limited showery activity on Monday away from N Scotland and coasts, but with a slacker flow and a trough, potential for showers to break out more widely in central and southern England on Tuesday afternoon.

Cloudier, less cold (but still below average for the time of year), mainly dry weather looks set to head in on Wednesday and Thursday, with another weakening rain belt heading in from the north-west, and then the models have returned to going for a second northerly outbreak on Friday/Saturday.  It doesn't currently look likely to be as potent as this one, but GFS precipitation charts suggest a possibility of sleet/snow/hail showers becoming quite widespread in N and E Scotland, NE England, possibly down to Lincolnshire and Norfolk, with a dusting of snow possible to low levels during the intervening night, so potentially one to watch for those areas.  In the west this second northerly will probably be dry and sunny.

Edited April 4, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers