Model output discussion 10/02/21

[PiscesStar]

22 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Great post Matt, you said this kind of thing could happen weeks ago....  

when all’s said and done..well done mate..it’s about to happen..we have cross model support for an exceptional arctic plunge ( by early April standards )...  !..some may not be happy, but you can’t please all the people all of the time can you?  

Didn't WE JUST!! 

[Methuselah]

Here it comes!      Make it snappy!

[Matt Jones]

The downgrades both short term and long term keep coming for cold and snow, looks like a northerly toppler now in comparison to a few days back.

[Empire Of Snow]

7 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

The downgrades both short term and long term keep coming for cold and snow, looks like a northerly toppler now in comparison to a few days back.

Huh? Are you sure you're not watching some early December 2020 run? 12z has a slight west correction and brings also back the reload next weekend. 

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

The downgrades both short term and long term keep coming for cold and snow, looks like a northerly toppler now in comparison to a few days back.

It really depends where you are in the u k, I can’t see any downgrades for the north, specifically Scotland..now, Scotland is a part of the u k and can’t be ignored..good luck to them with this imminent arctic blast   ️..it’s one for the books ooop north!  

Edited April 3, 2021 by Jon Snow

[Matt Jones]

2 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

Huh? Are you sure you're not watching some early December 2020 run? 12z has a slight west correction and brings also back the reload next weekend. 

Missed the 6Z that must have been worse then, the reload is quickly moved away by the High that then sits over us. Certainly cold for this time of year but struggling to see it as exceptional as it looked a few days back.

[Dancerwithwings]

Who talking of downgrades, Could it Icon is showing Snowfall for first thing Weds morning.....don't tell 

 

[Matt Jones]

4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

It really depends where you are in the u k, I can’t see any downgrades for the north, specifically Scotland..now, Scotland is a part of the u k and can’t be ignored..good luck to them with this imminent arctic blast   ️..it’s one for the books ooop north!  

I get that but downgrades were always less likely to affect Scotland, yes I think Scotland and northern hills will get some snow.

[Empire Of Snow]

2 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

Missed the 6Z that must have been worse then, the reload is quickly moved away by the High that then sits over us. Certainly cold for this time of year but struggling to see it as exceptional as it looked a few days back.

It's still exceptionally cold for April. As it is we're talking about a week or so of way below average temps. 12z even has a minor snow event for Central and North England as part of the Northwesterly after the Arctic blast. 

[Matt Jones]

4 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

It's still exceptionally cold for April. As it is we're talking about a week or so of way below average temps. 12z even has a minor snow event for Central and North England as part of the Northwesterly after the Arctic blast. 

I suppose it depends on what you define as exceptional, I don't see it as exceptional, just taking my location as probably being 5-6C below it's average for 3 days. Those snow events rarely materialise but can't be ruled out.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

3 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Do many people get excited by low dew points Unless it’s going to snow (which for many it looks like it won’t) I’d rather it warm up now! 10th onwards looks good for temps to recover to 15c + just in time for the pub gardens

I do especially if it's a rare occurrence for them to be so low at this time of year 

 

[Methuselah]

Nae lads, nayyy! Back when ar were a lud (Cue Dvorak's New World and imagine yourself climbing a really big hill, carrying a loaf of brown bread). When I was younger -- much younger than today-yay -- snowfall in April was almost a given...

Anyway, back to the here-and-now -- how warm is it going to get?

    

[Mike Poole]

So, need to look at snow, now this cold snap is in range, and the EURO4 12z has this as cumulative falling snow through to T54:

The streaks indicate it is all down to convection - streamers. The north will see a bit, the south, well we would be lucky but it isn’t impossible.

[Daniel*]

A little shift west of main core of instability on latest ECM as did GFS about 30 miles. I think we should see wintry showers quite widely these rather frequent along North Sea coasts.

[Frosty.]

What incredible charts from the Gfs 12z op for 5th April!..seriously, at Christmas it would be the usual mild crap but this is really something..not to be sniffed at..impressive!  

[Thundery wintry showers]

Perhaps the models over-reacted to a signal yesterday afternoon, correcting the setup a bit too far east initially, as today's runs have revised it slightly further west again, though not as far west as yesterday's UKMO 12Z.  The potential for a second, weaker northerly blast mainly affecting the north has also returned.   

It looks like most roads still lead eventually to high pressure over the south of Britain bringing temperatures closer to normal and dry sunny weather and chilly nights over central and southern Britain, possibly rather cloudier in the north with rain at times for the north-west but there's a lot of uncertainty over where the high will end up at this stage.

The westward shift of the northerly is also matched on the GFS by an increase in showery activity especially for Wales and the south-west on Tuesday, which for me in Exeter continues to look interesting, potentially a snowy farewell before I move away from Devon on Friday 9th.   For Monday it looks like the northern half of Scotland and north-east England will be the prime locations for snow, perhaps parts of Lincolnshire, the Midlands and East Anglia also.  Still suggestions, though, that a large part of central and southern England will see a pronounced "wishbone effect" with just scattered light snow or graupel flurries developing.

Edited April 3, 2021 by Thundery wintry showers

[Northernlights]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Nae lads, nayyy! Back when ar were a lud (Cue Dvorak's New World and imagine yourself climbing a really big hill, carrying a loaf of brown bread). When I was younger -- much younger than today-yay -- snowfall in April was almost a given...

Anyway, back to the here-and-now -- how warm is it going to get?

    

My present agronomist has just retired.He was an Aberdeen agri student at the same time as me. His new replacement   knows I am a bit of a weather nut and texted me yesterday asking  how long this cold spell would last  so I said the worst should be over in few days but the extended forecast showed some frosty nights (spray chemicals and frost do not go well together) Said I thought it might be two weeks before we got to plough and sow the last field  (after last few  neeps eaten off by cows) because of wet and cold but historically April snow is not unusual up here and warmth usually arrived about the 20th of April when the swallows arrived and the geese left. The 20th is usually our average turnout date for the cattle when there is usually a few inches of grass for them to graze.    (date range over 50 years is from 7th of April to 16th May)

Edited April 3, 2021 by Northernlights
spelling

[Methuselah]

And, talking of Spring and warm-up, the GEFS 12Z temp ensembles are better:

Bedfordshire:      

Aberdeen:            

[Tim Bland]

ECM still cold and dry for most early next week 

[Mike Poole]

Well HARMONIE has the snow showers going down the North Sea, here 12z to T48:

[stodge]

Perhaps the most interesting part of tonight's 12Z ECM OP is no return to milder weather in the next 10 days.

As long as heights remain strong to the west and north west of the British Isles, we remain on the cold side of the tracks with winds from a N'ly quarter.

[Frosty.]

28 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM still cold and dry for most early next week 

And snowy for some?    

Edited April 3, 2021 by Jon Snow

[ANYWEATHER]

Just scanning through the Ecm and Gfs and to be honest a Well below average first half of the month ,for temperatures,  a well below average month for precipitation again first half ............really not good for Growers and gardeners and with some extremely low dew points  the humidity will be ultra low as well in fact we have had some extremely dry air of late I can tell by my nose ..great Hygrometer!!!  A very interesting Spring with some snow surprises too.....!

[Tim Bland]

29 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

And snowy for some?    

I wouldn’t call it ‘snowy’ for any highly populated areas of the Uk to be honest Perhaps a few flurries and something more substantial for Scottish highlands and snowdonia? 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I wouldn’t call it ‘snowy’ for any highly populated areas of the Uk to be honest Perhaps a few flurries and something more substantial for Scottish highlands and snowdonia? 

Damn it, but have to agree with this, the setup is too far east, pressure too high convective activity low, away from North/East

awful days Mon and Tue, dry probably quite dull due to weak cumulus spread and cold wind