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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl

The GEM seems to be the most enthusiastic of the models for hard overnight frost.  Here’s the prediction for 7:00am Wednesday 07/04:

78CF2375-9E11-43BD-8E6D-4155BCAF24D8.thumb.png.81fbc261a56c0f38ccf878f148d71c24.png

Thats a very cold picture for April and would be damaging to young plants.  Growers take note!

Contrast the above chart with the ICON, which has frost only in limited areas....

B16813F7-4D9A-494A-9596-65AC596A79BC.thumb.png.465ae2c7c3fc8ba8fd682cbb8f3e85ae.png

Is there still room for moderation with regard to the impact of this cold snap?

Edited by Sky Full
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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
44 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

The GEM seems to be the most enthusiastic of the models for hard overnight frost.  Here’s the prediction for 7:00am Wednesday 07/04:

78CF2375-9E11-43BD-8E6D-4155BCAF24D8.thumb.png.81fbc261a56c0f38ccf878f148d71c24.png

Thats a very cold picture for April and would be damaging to young plants.  Growers take note!

Contrast the above chart with the ICON, which has frost only in limited areas....

B16813F7-4D9A-494A-9596-65AC596A79BC.thumb.png.465ae2c7c3fc8ba8fd682cbb8f3e85ae.png

Is there still room for moderation with regard to the impact of this cold snap?

Yes as much as i am looking forward to this spell the one thing i am concerned about is the potential damaging frosts. Advice is not to plant out any small or tender plants for at least a week and until the risk of frost has passed. Any fruit trees in blossom can be sprayed with fine hose which may help protect the blossoms against the worst of the frosts. Anyway, enough of that. Noticeable that on the ecm 0z after initial northerly the weather turns just..well..very disturbed...before a potential reload..

image.thumb.png.dc5cd351d46caf4c459af2c00708a130.png

 

image.thumb.png.b6adf2236c28cc64df51169b5ad8cb24.png

Edited by minus10
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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

And....Drumroll ...the ECM 0z op brings a reload ..not a bad day 10..who am I kidding lol..at least it’s a cure for hay fever! ❄️
315A55FB-9D7B-443C-AB8A-F88DC9CA0315.thumb.png.4812a77485fd4e981d9f7e4950138c13.png0FCAA9F4-298D-480C-8B4C-14A588CEE8C3.thumb.png.230b5dbcacaec2333de1ded8a0b941b5.png009AA8A7-BD00-4C8A-9205-5568C51E5846.thumb.png.56b8a15269011e8f4cfed4e7fe3335b2.png7407D846-B49E-44B4-86D7-0BFA11700284.jpeg.4f4aed3d200197d731063481b80c634b.jpeg 

 

Let me guess, Stella's all round guys?!  

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Assuming the 'horrors' of next week don't linger for too long, the GFS 00Z's rendition of Day 10 looks ideal: light winds, low pressure and low heights -- all good for plenty of slow-moving thundery showers . . . it also does us the courtesy of sending any deep cold into the Atlantic -- what's not to like?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

What could possibly go wrong!

Edited by General Cluster
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Posted
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level

Some very positive posts regarding wintry weather this morning, to me when I viewed both GFS & UKMO models this morning my immediate thought was a large watering down compared to what I viewed yesterday evening, once the initial short northerly blast is over both models mix the uppers out for any reloads.

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
10 minutes ago, Matt Jones said:

Some very positive posts regarding wintry weather this morning, to me when I viewed both GFS & UKMO models this morning my immediate thought was a large watering down compared to what I viewed yesterday evening, once the initial short northerly blast is over both models mix the uppers out for any reloads.

I think ECM and UKMO have actually slightly intensified the cold (albeit the very coldest uppers have been pushed out to Tuesday now for the south if ECM ensemble guidance is correct). A mean of -8 uppers in London in April is cold whichever way you look at it

image.thumb.png.0712900a12066efdb20d163e26bd3e8f.png

You could see quite a lot of wintry-mix action in your location. Coldie folk are getting quite excited about this upcoming spell and in Scotland, NI and the north of England (especially higher parts) they're probably right to be despite some slightly over-hyping it. For some parts of the north this could be a relatively long-lasting cool/cold spell but, as you say, the coldest air looks like it might get mixed out for England and Wales after 2 or 3 days... but that is FI and could be wrong of course. However, what I'm seeing in the models this morning for lowland southern UK I'm not seeing anything THAT unusual. Cold for the time of year, yes, but nothing extreme. At least not yet. Models might start to see something for the south in time. For now though, for the south, it looks like we'll get an interesting squall line early hours of Monday and then some hail and rain showers, maybe a flake or 4 of sleet on occasion, in between sunny spells. Nuisance cold with a nagging, constant breeze

This is a bit of an IMBY post. You'll have better chances of seeing snow in Lincs I should think

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Posted
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
  • Location: Immingham, NE Lincolnshire pretty much sea level
1 hour ago, LRD said:

I think ECM and UKMO have actually slightly intensified the cold (albeit the very coldest uppers have been pushed out to Tuesday now for the south if ECM ensemble guidance is correct). A mean of -8 uppers in London in April is cold whichever way you look at it

image.thumb.png.0712900a12066efdb20d163e26bd3e8f.png

You could see quite a lot of wintry-mix action in your location. Coldie folk are getting quite excited about this upcoming spell and in Scotland, NI and the north of England (especially higher parts) they're probably right to be despite some slightly over-hyping it. For some parts of the north this could be a relatively long-lasting cool/cold spell but, as you say, the coldest air looks like it might get mixed out for England and Wales after 2 or 3 days... but that is FI and could be wrong of course. However, what I'm seeing in the models this morning for lowland southern UK I'm not seeing anything THAT unusual. Cold for the time of year, yes, but nothing extreme. At least not yet. Models might start to see something for the south in time. For now though, for the south, it looks like we'll get an interesting squall line early hours of Monday and then some hail and rain showers, maybe a flake or 4 of sleet on occasion, in between sunny spells. Nuisance cold with a nagging, constant breeze

This is a bit of an IMBY post. You'll have better chances of seeing snow in Lincs I should think

Yes I agree ECM looks colder this morning, I think the 144hrs UKMO chart looked poor for a decent prolonging/reload, and GFS considerably worse for reloading than last nights. I expect to perhaps see some falling sleet/snow here early next week but nothing more, agreed areas further north with elevation will do well. I really wanted to see some more extreme 850's but that was always being greedy!

Just viewed GFS 6Z and think that looks a little colder than 0Z.

Edited by Matt Jones
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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

What were 850s like in '08? Can't view the Meteociel charts.

Would be interesting to compare current model output to past April synoptics.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Matts log day 1,000...was holed up at cold camp all alone through all of Feb and March,and sending out a signal to all cold lovers to join me in ones last chase!! But many of you had deserted by this stage...perhaps sunning yourselves on the parks and beaches!! I only hope you were not responsible for turning the country into a rubbish tip!

This upcoming possibility as been there for some time and does not suprise me one bit. The vortex has behaved so strangely these past few months and many places around Europe have witnessed bizzare and extreme weather events.. we now see the general demise of the strat vortex as Spring rears its head!! But not before it brings us another shot or two of Winter.

I was just about to clear my belongings out of the cold HQ,but I will now be digging in for another couple of weeks, its great to have so many of you back and getting a tad excited. It's coming folks,with many in with a shout of some of the white stuff! Make sure you've got your toboggan for the pub beer Garden opening day

6Z says....ohhhhh yes oh yes oh yes just like the film when Harry met Sally.

gfs-0-126.png

gfs-0-90.png

gfs-1-126.png

06Z very good aye! good snow chances Mon to Wed, milder Thurs, then more snow chances Fri/Sat, hopefully colder and better than Feb this year

GEM still exist? cannot get it last few days

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

This could turn out to be a month like 1990.,, a month of extremes with highs and low and not many average days.   If it all ends up in a May similar to one that followed April 1990 I doubt there will be many complaints!

708668863_Aapril1990.thumb.jpg.6f962e313c8366af652411b737cea41b.jpg

31st March to 3rd April 1990 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

There'll defo be a 'nip in the air' next week!:santa-emoji:

t850Suffolk.png    prmslSuffolk.png

t2mSuffolk.png     prcpSuffolk.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
3 hours ago, Relativistic said:

What were 850s like in '08? Can't view the Meteociel charts.

Would be interesting to compare current model output to past April synoptics.

I've been using this site to view archives while Meteociel is out of action. Annoyingly it only goes up to December 2015 but otherwise, you can actually see more charts per day than Meteociel.

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
19 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

We’re in sight of a major polar blast @nailed..minor dynamics just need reference...  let’s av- a look after all 12z And matched ☝️@absolute madness

Not the dreaded 'N-Word'? Whatever next! 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

Looking ahead, GFS vs UKMO at 144. 

Fairly consistent, so interesting to see what the GFS says up to next weekend  

gfsnh-0-144.png

UN144-21 (2).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, Griff said:

GFS next Friday 

gfsnh-0-186.png

gfsnh-1-186.png

Aye looking good, still a bit off yet though, but Arctic NW'lys normally great here

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