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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
Message added by Paul,

Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
For local snow discussion and will it snow posts, please use the regional threads
For more general chat please use the chat, moans and ramps thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
39 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

All Easter egg hunts will require hats and gloves kids.

That is if the 12z ECM mean has anything to do with it

You don’t see many Easter days like this 

image.thumb.gif.7cd43af3ff92d60bb3912a1d171da30e.gifimage.thumb.gif.92358fb22c587e3492f8da42b7b84350.gif

Hope it's colder/better than that Feb effort! never properly got cold enough for proper snaw, this looks colder and a northerly

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
11 minutes ago, LRD said:

Got to be honest and I don't want to be a killjoy here but I don't think you nor I, in our respective locations, will see an awful lot of snow anyway. If GFS is correct some lows crashing into colder air will give us more chance late on next week

The north, in places, look like getting something significant out of this, however

Its not so much the snow LRD just the fact that showers are only being shown around the coast as in mid winter by the met office . I don't expect much if any snow around here however I would expect to see some shower cloud development with rain/hail/sleet maybe given the synoptic set up at this time of year....

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Colder upper air temps then the disappointing feb cold-spell,as we head into April,one day we will get Arctic northerly in early January!

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
4 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Its not so much the snow LRD just the fact that showers are only being shown around the coast as in mid winter by the met office . I don't expect much if any snow around here however I would expect to see some shower cloud development with rain/hail/sleet maybe given the synoptic set up at this time of year....

Wouldn't worry. Something will turn up. I'd like to see a thunderstorm lasting for an hour or two. Don't often see them in colder weather so that'd be of interest, at least

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
25 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Hope it's colder/better than that Feb effort! never properly got cold enough for proper snaw, this looks colder and a northerly

I really wouldn’t expect much (if any) lying snow away from 200m +. Even a hint of any sunlight will instantly melt any slush that does form for most. Sorry to be a grinch but I’m ready for spring now

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
34 minutes ago, stodge said:

I'm certainly expecting some heavy downpours in lowland east London with hail or thunder.

Snow? No, in all honesty - maybe a flake or two falling but nothing settling.

-8 850s across most of the country by Monday.

I think the Extreme cold charts from both Ecm and Gfs at this time of year would deliver snow at low levels..

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Posted
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)

April snow is rare .... but seems to crop up every 13/14 years ???

1981 ... too young don’t remember

1994 remember snow showers over grand national weekend I think aintree had a good covering on morning of the national .

2008 remember returning home from a Saturday night out 2.40 am 3 inch snow on all roads taxi struggling !!

2021 ? ?? Again

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

I think the Extreme cold charts from both Ecm and Gfs at this time of year would deliver snow at low levels..

Extreme? Is it really extreme? Uppers of -7/-8 in April aren't unheard of. Pretty cold, yes. Extreme? I'm not so sure

I think Stodge is right. Might be a flake or two in southern, lowland England but nothing of significance. North of a line from Manchester to Lincoln could see something unusual I s'pose. Scotland guaranteed to see winter for a few days

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Then GFS Pub run is cold brrrr 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
5 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Then GFS Pub run is cold brrrr 

image.thumb.png.f0f3c4940923bbef1389140e6875060a.pngimage.thumb.gif.03000ed7c3d813f1241d86ac7af70c5e.gifimage.thumb.png.b4009628012c4244ba688009fd653ebd.pngimage.thumb.png.509e980b9112376661d13fc39f7fee62.png

Quite a margin for error for the UK now on that run at just 5 days out.  This arctic plunge is happening. 

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Quite a margin for error for the UK now on that run at just 5 days out.  This arctic plunge is happening. 

I couldn’t Agee with more, but like you mentioned is only five days out, looking good if you ask me with tweaks

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Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms☃⛈
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire

Blooming heck GFS 18z!

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
20 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Quite a margin for error for the UK now on that run at just 5 days out.  This arctic plunge is happening. 

Expect a major backtrack now in the morning from all models December 2012 style! 

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
33 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

18z gfs is an epic stonker, frigid cold for a week with snow chances.

 

channel low with cornwall buried.

image.thumb.png.1518225a4bad1295e7a09c9389e9df22.png

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This should be framed with Feb's statement as a caption "18z gfs is an epic stonker" for future record of   the screaming northerly of easter 2021 (subject to it verifying of course). Love it....

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