Model output discussion 10/02/21

[LRD]

13 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Looking way ahead here but check out these charts for Easter Sunday at 15:00 - just for a wee bit of fun at this range! All subject to many changes.

UKV:

Temperatures: 

 

Precipitation & Cloud Cover:

 

Precipitation Type:

 

850HPA temp & Sea level pressure:

 

500-1000hpa thickness (dam)

 

ECM for the same timeframe as all the charts above.

 

I totally understand all the IMBY posts and whining about the potential incoming cold snap but for me and many others on this forum...that is exciting/interesting stuff in early Spring! 

Risk there of a pretty impressive squall line moving through - blustery wintry showers sweeping in behind that...hail, thunder and lightning in the mix! 

All this chat as well about how this cold spell would vanish from the charts if it was Winter...January 2021 was cold for most of the month! Well below average with plenty of snowfall for many of us throughout the UK! Coldest January since 2010! 1.5C below the long-term 1981-2010 average.

 

 

Thank god I love weather extremes/something different in every season of the year - heat, thunderstorms, snowfall, severe gales...bring it all on anytime of the year! (When it is actually possible of course )

UK Climate is suddenly becoming a wee bit exciting this year with the -23C in February and the 24.5C today. 
Bring on more extremes through the rest of the year please! 

Well, it makes a change from coldies whining when it all goes wrong in winter (of which I am one)! Plus I'm trying to be a bit tongue-in-cheek. This thread is taken awful seriously sometimes!

January was no doubt good for you (snow-wise) but it wasn't for me. Rain in a January E'ly!!  IMBY-ism is natural. I dunno why people get so uptight about it. Not aimed at you mate but I have seen others get cross about that). 

Edited March 30, 2021 by LRD

[LRD]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Is there not a whining thread on here? Spring Ramps and Moans? The only coldies I see whinging every Winter on here are the same four of five people from SW/S/SE England. 

I like to pop in here to read about Model Discussion or something related to it at least - not trawl through pages about how depressed folk are due to a potential Northerly toppler.

It is Spring after all - pretty standard stuff most years. 

Really? Blimey, me and you must be reading different model output threads in the winter! 

I think I HAVE been talking about the models in between my sarcasm. Like I say it's taken far, far too seriously in here at times! Speaking of talking about the models (ahem), the ECM run is right at the bottom of the ensemble pack for Monday - Wednesday next week and again at Day 10:

But the mean is still cold

[Man With Beard]

One heck of a wintry mess on the ECM by Monday/Tuesday, right down to the south coast. If taken literally, there would be some temporary coverings in various places. However, we've got used to ECM snow charts being a bit random, so best advice is check the lamppost. (Ooops! Forgot, doesn't get dark enough for lamppost watching anymore )

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters T192-T240:

Well, where do you start?  Cluster 1 looks a plausible evolution.  But the other two?  They look highly unlikely to me, two blocks trapping a trough in various places.  I really can’t see this - cue this to happen, of course.

[Frosty.]

Another Fantastic ECM 12z ensemble mean early next week for coldies, great to see the coldies return as it’s made this a hot topic again instead of a damp squib!..fingers crossed for that ecm op encore at the end too..would be the icing on the cake, pardon the pun...bring on the Arctic!!!  ️ 

[LRD]

As Quicksilver pointed out earlier, the above are the warmer (than today's 0z and 6z) 12z GFS ensembles

[Derbyshire_snow]

On 28/03/2021 at 11:42, minus10 said:

That has to be one for the archive/weather history museum. Be interesting to know if that has ever happened before . Despite little chance of it happening the fact that these more extreme perts and the very hps being shown over greenland are occuring maybe a sign of bigger changes taking place....

Most definitely I have never seen charts like that here I dread to think if that ever verified in winter would probably be looking at -5 to -10c in the day and -20c and below in some areas at night.

Thankfully we won't get anywhere near that cold but talk of 3 to 4c maxes in Northern England and 0c in Scotland in April is baltic with -10c windchill as far south as London that will feel utterly vile

[ICE COLD]

Not sure if the GEM 12z was posted this evening but it’s onboard with the cold shot also

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

 

500-1000hpa thickness (dam)

 

You could get a right belting from this you know, certainly if one of the more extreme op runs from the past few days verifies., guessing your location isn't usually conducive to big dumpings, too far West and too low ground.

[Allseasons-Si]

Wow some great post's in here today with records being broken with todays heat for 53 years,...brilliant stuff,...same again tomorrow

could records be broken again with this arctic plunge,...one to watch,boy i love extremes in weather and makes it more interesting and something to post about,...more please

In Pictures: UK March temperature highest for 53 years

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Some parts of the UK enjoyed spring sunshine as the UK recorded its warmest March day since 1968.

now for the cold plunge into the bank hol's...

the models are certainly firming up on this now but we are still just outside of the reliable timeframe and this has a time to get watered down,i have noticed on the 12z gefs ens that they where not as cold as previous ens over the past few days,...me personally would love to see a cold extreme scenario that some of the models(esp gfs/gefs ens) have been showing and i would like to see an April cold record been broken cos this would go down in the history books,two records in a week,...bring it on

the latest EPS at day ten is steadfast from previous days with +ve heights to our NW and -ve heights to our E/SE/and S

500mb heights/MSLP and 850's temp anomalies 

a snippet from severe-weather.eu

 

A massive plume of warm weather is forecast to spread spring temperatures across Europe until early April, then another cold blast is likely

WWW.SEVERE-WEATHER.EU

---

A strong plume of very warm air mass is forecast to bring spring temperatures for Europe this week. Then, a strong cold blast spreads south in early April.

going to view the 18z now,...take care all

Edited March 30, 2021 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Empire Of Snow]

18z has no significant changes. Quite similar to 12z until 174h but the difference is that it's setting up a direct reload at 180h. 

[Cloud 10]

The pub run is a belter,and has the northerly getting down to North Africa.

 

[ICE COLD]

In comes the 2nd blast

[Allseasons-Si]

Blimey!!!,...reloads from the north again,...

can we keep this going on until next winter

just kidding,...i want a good summer too with plenty of heat and storms

[lassie23]

Snow has returned

[Griff]

Morning gfs with some nice symmetry  

126hrs vs 216hrs

 

[Griff]

UKMO says

[ICE COLD]

UKMO looks a stonker this morning . Has anyone got the 850s please ? 

[ICE COLD]

ECM T120 bringing it in

[Djdazzle]

Pretty awful charts for April, it must be said. Just wish it was winter - I’d be getting excited now.

[Jordan S]

Obviously very impressive unusual temperatures for March yesterday for some but for today too, ironically the day I said on friday that was more likely to be cooler now it may be the warmest day of this short warm spell for a few, with a local very warm maximum of 25c a possibility, close to the temperature record for March.. but temperatures of 23c and 24c will be reached locally for a few places of England.

Gfs..

Looking further ahead to next week high pressure is likely to be positioned to the northwest and then west of the uk for most of the time with northerly winds fairly likely spreading down to most or all areas on monday, colder than average for the first half of the week with showers, probably preceded by a cold front moving south on sunday night with rain at first then perhaps sleet or snow just before it clears in the north, showers then probably falling as sleet and snow in the north to lower levels .. a few of these also likely to contain hail with the chance of some thunderstorms developing.

Upper air temperatures..

Freezing level..

Overview..

For Wales, central, southern and eastern parts of England after the likely cold front perhaps clears the south early monday, showers probably more of a mix of rain and snow at times on lower ground with snow possible on high ground, but the potential although less likely is for snow to fall to lower levels in some places, hail again may fall in some of the showers along with the possible development of a few thunderstorms. By tuesday showers potentially more of sleet and rain here.

By midweek the cold air possibly becoming more moderated and snow falling back on higher ground in the north with temperatures closer to average, perhaps still below for some..

although there also appears to be the chance of a recurrent cold northerly wind such as the Gfs update is showing.

Probably staying unsettled though towards the end of next week with low pressure over the uk or close by later in the week before the weekend, temperatures around average but possibly below for some. 

Looking further than this to next weekend 10-11th April so output may change, though this scenario may end up being fairly close, and high pressure to the southwest of the uk possibly moving northeast into southern parts with drier weather returning, temperatures perhaps rising in the south too.

 

Gefs ensemble update from 6pm yesterday as it hasn't updated yet..

Edited March 31, 2021 by jordan smith

[ICE COLD]

ECM 144 -10s widespread 

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM 144 -10s widespread 

Hey guys, I can even see a positive on that near obscenity of a chart: my hay fever might subside!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

27 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM 144 -10s widespread 

looks good for Cheshire Gap streamer, just cold enough -10 850's

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

my hay fever might subside!

That chart is nothing to be sneezed at Ed

Anyhoo..moving swiftly on, I’m seeing upgrades aplenty to the arctic blast, when I looked at the GEFS / GFS 0z a bit earlier I had a good feeling about the rest of the 0z output! ️  

Edited March 31, 2021 by Jon Snow