Model output discussion 10/02/21

[minus10]

Incredible to think that i am working out in the sun at the moment and sweating while looking at all these crazy cold charts (during a break for a cuppa)

[mushymanrob]

Daily temperature record thats stood since 1927 appears to have gone, twas 23.9, 24c recorded at Hillingdon?

[PUTIN]

24 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Daily temperature record thats stood since 1927 appears to have gone, twas 23.9, 24c recorded at Hillingdon?

24.2c at St. James Park 2pm, not sure what it was at 3pm.

[PUTIN]

Northolt is interesting because it was 1.2c at 6am - surely quite a thick frost - and 23.3c at 2pm, probably higher still 3-4pm.

[Frigid]

2 minutes ago, PUTIN said:

Northolt is interesting because it was 1.2c at 6am - surely quite a thick frost - and 23.3c at 2pm, probably higher still 3-4pm.

Reminds me of late Sep 2018 when it was 1-2c at 6am to 24c in the afternoon. Very bizarre weather

[ICE COLD]

Purb no 23 from the GEFS will do the job nicely. Only at T132

[tight isobar]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Daily temperature record thats stood since 1927 appears to have gone, twas 23.9, 24c recorded at Hillingdon?

Yep my borough @hillingdon

[tight isobar]

35 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Purb no 23 from the GEFS will do the job nicely. Only at T132

Imagine.. an- insane plot

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

Daily temperature record thats stood since 1927 appears to have gone, twas 23.9, 24c recorded at Hillingdon?

Based on what Karl is showing above,  the next monthly record to go could be the lowest daily mean CET for an April day (since 1878).....if the 5th ends up colder than the 0.5C registered in 1917. 

[Man With Beard]

Easter Monday becomes Easter Snowday?

 

[Frigid]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Purb no 23 from the GEFS will do the job nicely. Only at T132

It would be hilarious if we got the -20c in the UK in April, given we've struggled to get that in winters since 1987

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Frigid said:

It would be hilarious if we got the -20c in the UK in April, given we've struggled to get that in winters since 1987

It only nearly reached us in 1987!

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Purb no 23 from the GEFS will do the job nicely. Only at T132

The damage that airmass  could do to flora and fauna if it were to happen.  Saw the damage one frost did mid April last year.  

[Frigid]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It only nearly reached us in 1987!

Makes this chart even more crazy. 

[Guest]

Grim output this evening, UKMO fully backing up GFS. Just need to hope for the least bad outcome. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Grim output this evening, UKMO fully backing up GFS. Just need to hope for the least bad outcome. 

For you yes, but looks good for convective hail/snow showers, further north but hope to see something here, certainly a covering of snow possible before 8am

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Good GFS, could it be an April 6th '08? looks good timing for the front Sunday night

Edited March 30, 2021 by I remember Atlantic 252

[The Northern Ramper]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Good GFS, could it be an April 6th '08? looks good timing for the front Sunday night

I fancy a clean sweep tonight for the start of this cold spell for the end of Easter weekend.

Whether this becomes historic remains to be seen but we’ll have a good idea by Thursday. Historic in April is not historic in January but we get what we get.

[summer blizzard]

GFS certainly good on the cold front for April albeit thankfully (for most) not as wet as 2012 with what looks like a more showery flow away from Ireland and Scotland which do look potentially very wet.

Its when the models start centering the low over southern England that you get the quasi-stationary fronts (something to watch for in the output). 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

17 minutes ago, Ramp said:

I fancy a clean sweep tonight for the start of this cold spell for the end of Easter weekend.

Whether this becomes historic remains to be seen but we’ll have a good idea by Thursday. Historic in April is not historic in January but we get what we get.

should be better, January no convection for inland areas = dry, feel it may topple though so a drier day Wed

[minus10]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

The damage that airmass  could do to flora and fauna if it were to happen.  Saw the damage one frost did mid April last year.  

Yes that would be some serious problems for gardeners and growers ,as young and tender plants either recently planted or just emerging perennials  from winter hybernation as well as fruit blossoming would be damaged by the severe frosts (not so much by snow). _Plants do recover however it can delay growth and effect fruit output badly.

However part of me is still in wonder that just being out today and it felt like a day in June . Records being broken with the warmest March since 1968 and then potentially the warmest March day ever tomorrow followed by what looks like an increasing blast of (real) cold polar air just adds to the interest (and excitement?) of our varied weather pattens.

Coldest April day/night coming up?...

Some of the most exciting weather in my opinion is the unstable northerly with wintry showers (and sunshine) in April...lets hope we get some of that and not the dull wet dross with cold rain and no sun....

Edited March 30, 2021 by minus10

[damianslaw]

GFS12z showing a potent long drawn arctic northerly for Easter Monday, severe wind chill and snow showers for some. Contrast with today's summer warmth. An interesting week ahead.

[Mike Poole]

Direct hit hotting up (or colding up, I should say) on ECM T144:

That’s the big 3 now at T144, and you have to say, barring a major model rethink on the 0z runs, GFS had this one first.  

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Direct hit hotting up (or colding up, I should say) on ECM T144:

That’s the big 3 now at T144, and you have to say, barring a major model rethink on the 0z runs, GFS had this one first.  

Hmm - could have done with -10c across whole country, must admit i was hoping for -12c or -13c for me, anything at -8c or higher will melt on contact here, a little disappointed.

Unless we can get it wrapped around the N or W flank of that trough and get some continuous heavy snow.

Edited March 30, 2021 by feb1991blizzard

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Direct hit hotting up (or colding up, I should say) on ECM T144:

That’s the big 3 now at T144, and you have to say, barring a major model rethink on the 0z runs, GFS had this one first.  

Still at 144 though, so only in the semi-reliable. I am expecting a northerly, but these nearly always get moderated and / or corrected eastwards.