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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

BBC not mentioning any unusual cold down south over Easter.  14c for Easter Sunday, was hoping for a white one

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hey, folks, leaving aside the potential cold snap for the UK, has anyone else noticed the heat building to our south and east?  In early April.  Here GFS at T240:

C85F8D21-9295-47D2-A6A9-1B859F3D9A8B.thumb.png.46ef4b2d5591926db86c4ed455175a5a.png

I’ would normally look in the archives to check, but they aren’t there because of the fire at meteociel, but this looks anomalous to me for the time of year?

Think Russia could have a hot one this year. 

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Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Hey, folks, leaving aside the potential cold snap for the UK, has anyone else noticed the heat building to our south and east?  In early April.  Here GFS at T240:

C85F8D21-9295-47D2-A6A9-1B859F3D9A8B.thumb.png.46ef4b2d5591926db86c4ed455175a5a.png

I’ would normally look in the archives to check, but they aren’t there because of the fire at meteociel, but this looks anomalous to me for the time of year?

It might be a tad early but the last few years the subtropical anticyclone makes its strong appearance earlier in spring either in South East Europe or Spain. This forecasted spring heatwave in Greece is one of the reasons the models hint to continuous Northerly reloads over here. I expect the heatwave there to be downgraded though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

In the last 142 years there has only been two occasions on which the mean CET for the 5th April has been more than 7C lower than for the 1st April.

Oddly they occurred in successive years...1989 and 1990.

The models make it look as it this year is going to have a good go at making it the third such occasion.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall
  • Location: Walsall
1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

BBC not mentioning any unusual cold down south over Easter.  14c for Easter Sunday, was hoping for a white one

Netweather saying 16c in the Midlands. The models make it more like 6c don't they?

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
6 minutes ago, Neil Harris said:

Netweather saying 16c in the Midlands. The models make it more like 6c don't they?

Yes who do we believe lol?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No good @CreweCold EPS following op.

image.thumb.png.f6dd78089a45985c4866c093b404dcf1.png

Yes, I noticed that.  GEFS mean still going for a good chance of a direct hit:

6995D424-3997-49BC-8EE3-2EA1048A5E86.thumb.png.e6afc2fc201753bb0fa7df1ee8a42abd.pngAE4917E8-CB86-412C-AE4C-A07D9F52D7BF.thumb.png.679c2f607249fb327ff90e24f191549c.png

In the land of the blind, the GFS is king.

Don’t discount the GFS here, Greenland high scenarios are what it is good at.

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

While GFS 12z keeps it fairly cold throughout the ECM 12z with the cold further west introduces the potential for warmer air from the east via a low forming over the us at 216.

 

image.thumb.png.31635c436b02201703e2883e0d5148ad.pngimage.thumb.png.1eec3c058cd77618650fbd16dbf0af50.png

Out of interest has anyone noticed how slow the GFS 12z download is from netweather this afternoon ? . It still hasn't completed yet and there are a number of gaps in it. Is there a problem or is it something my end? Thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

What is driving the upcoming cold spell, or at least high latitude blocking spell - as it is yet to be determined whether the block will fall favourable for a substantial cold spell for the UK?  Here’s an indicator:  AAM forecasts courtesy of CFS:

3E50636F-51E5-4CB8-9A7A-C6FB6570D49F.thumb.png.3f0660088c06970196f6f3c7615602d6.png

We probably want that to simmer down a bit as we move into late Spring, for UK heat...

Interesting to compare SSTs now with same time in 2018:

0B3C9B36-89E9-4EFE-B5F8-FB008CAEB320.thumb.png.bd6c090f23cf9ee4f9d39668676d2ec5.pngED5581F2-D7AB-40CD-8DF8-94F4FD535A42.thumb.png.9c7b77de2b7ef9b44c7d2fd58da39757.png

Big difference there, and it is telling how warm they were to our west even after the BFTE and BFTE2 in 2018.  

Although the MO contingency planners forecast is going fairly strongly for a warmer summer, the emphasis is on later summer, rather than earlier, and this kind of makes sense from what we are seeing at the moment...we will see...

Edited by Mike Poole
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3 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Just looking further ahead.

Wednesday 15:00 - could be the hottest day of the week! 

826C4C11-1430-4FEB-ADE7-A284F924C3A9.thumb.png.0008d7e917bdc1834c04f34f9db86047.pngFC2DA51D-A6AB-412F-9F0D-F343E3EC713A.thumb.png.448584da7aaa04d2eb9457450df8d1a2.png
 

Crazy to think tomorrow/Wednesday could be the hottest March day since 09/03/1948. (23.9C) 

25C is not out of the question - 29/03/1965 that figure was recorded.

Thursday 15:00 - hottest temperatures in the UK for parts of SW Wales and SW England! @Alderc on the South coast should do well also. (16/17C)

643E17A1-DB4B-4356-9A03-85A62BD860F1.thumb.png.191431163526812bcc4e6c97fd923266.png30696606-D5C8-40AE-A751-BB507B4AE0A2.thumb.png.faf32c3ce976e1a8814d64593352a837.png
 

Friday 15:00 - big drop in temperatures throughout the UK but nothing too cold away from the East coast. 
Should be plenty of sunshine/sunny spells for most. 

CB928103-19F7-4684-80FE-3AFAF61B6F8B.thumb.png.7bc6174cf9184bdcb4bff2f0173ff445.png
 

ECM brings the proper cold blast into Scotland later on Easter Sunday and this colder air should dig South fairly quickly...Met Office currently forecast London in the mid teens with sunshine at the same timeframe! 
 

B692A069-9ABB-48EA-B1B4-777C9EDCB5FC.thumb.gif.7f226d5152bb77eeb40119ef269bcbde.gif892F53F0-49F8-43D3-BF4F-42701C6AE96F.thumb.gif.eb171f50153f29ef1634c85841ab1485.gif
 


So to summarise...reasonably straight forward forecast for us all (you would think) up until Friday/Saturday! Easter Sunday onwards...not got a clue! 

Check out Iceland on that ECM chart above though - bonkers stuff. 

ECM has 21C for me on Thursday, hopefully it handing on to that as I'm teeing off at 14:06 on Thursday

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
3 hours ago, lassie23 said:

BBC not mentioning any unusual cold down south over Easter.  14c for Easter Sunday, was hoping for a white one

No chance now and the warmth continues to be extended, while the cold gets pushed back.  Writing has been on the wall since Saturday evening really.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
12 minutes ago, Don said:

No chance now and the warmth continues to be extended, while the cold gets pushed back.  Writing has been on the wall since Saturday evening really.

GFS still disagrees with ecm

image.thumb.png.6d212eaa3619de9d7f662bb39ca7a717.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS still disagrees with ecm

image.thumb.png.6d212eaa3619de9d7f662bb39ca7a717.png

The fact that this has all been pushed back significantly in the last few days suggests to me that it's unlikely to come off.  However, I could be very wrong of course.

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
26 minutes ago, Don said:

The fact that this has all been pushed back significantly in the last few days suggests to me that it's unlikely to come off.  However, I could be very wrong of course.

GFS 18z has -12 uppers north Midlands Northwards at day 7 insane for the start of April even if this went pete tongue which I don't think it will these charts have to be up there with the best for this time of year providing you like a cold spell at this time of year which I appreciate many dont.

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

GFS 18z has -12 uppers north Midlands Northwards at day 7 insane for the start of April even if this went pete tongue which I don't think it will these charts have to be up there with the best for this time of year providing you like a cold spell at this time of year which I appreciate many dont.

C.S

I personally wouldn't mind a cold spell next week, although I too appreciate many would not welcome this, particularly as lockdown restrictions are being eased.  However, the exceptional cold is always just outside the reliable, so I don't think it will come off.

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
6 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

GFS 18z has -12 uppers north Midlands Northwards at day 7 insane for the start of April even if this went pete tongue which I don't think it will these charts have to be up there with the best for this time of year providing you like a cold spell at this time of year which I appreciate many dont.

C.S

 

gfsnh-1-156.png

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Well at least it looks as though we’ve escaped through the majority of Easter weekend without it being stupidly cold however it does look as though the writing is on the wall from Easter Monday onwards. GEM, UKMO @ t144 singing from GFS’s daft northerly hymn sheet. Just need to hope it doesn’t get locked in for ages like on the GFS with several reinforcing lows piling down from the north right through into the middle of April, utter misery! 

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
12 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well at least it looks as though we’ve escaped through the majority of Easter weekend without it being stupidly cold however it does look as though the writing is on the wall from Easter Monday onwards. GEM, UKMO @ t144 singing from GFS’s daft northerly hymn sheet. Just need to hope it doesn’t get locked in for ages like on the GFS with several reinforcing lows piling down from the north right through into the middle of April, utter misery! 

Sorry - moved my reply to the right thread.....

Edited by Sky Full
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Posted
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
  • Location: LOWESTOFT (most Easterly town in British Isles)
1 hour ago, Alderc said:

Well at least it looks as though we’ve escaped through the majority of Easter weekend without it being stupidly cold however it does look as though the writing is on the wall from Easter Monday onwards. GEM, UKMO @ t144 singing from GFS’s daft northerly hymn sheet. Just need to hope it doesn’t get locked in for ages like on the GFS with several reinforcing lows piling down from the north right through into the middle of April, utter misery! 

Tend to disagree, let's have PROPER cold with snow lying for days and not melting - otherwise what's the point, let's get on with Summer? Pretty charts alone don't do it for me, especially when they're not 'today's' and at T144 etc

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