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Model output discussion 10/02/21


phil nw.
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Please ensure you only post about the model output in this thread. 
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Jon Snow said:

Tonight’s ECM 12z ensemble mean has an unseasonably wintry look to it later, if anything, even more so than last nights 12z?...more of an upgrade than a downgrade in my opinion. ❄️ ⛄️  

 

True, but still a fair way out and plenty of time for it to be pushed back and downgraded.  Nice to have some interesting model watching after a month of generally benign weather, though!

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Hey, I reckon the pub run is going for it more than the 12z, here at T156, compared to 12z at T162:

624E6F26-419E-4042-BE98-212A575D94F7.thumb.png.77ba1822506b046f1558eba3567dfc7c.pngB4BAF315-9AFF-4434-B7D1-EA40FC3B5C42.thumb.png.cbe6343db5c373ddfba7c5ac3363ef26.png

Much better link up from Atlantic to Greenland here so far...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

GFS pub run T270:

7046445D-73E1-419A-8DC3-740652B729DD.thumb.png.fd9b0537b76fdad8b675d9b62362466f.png0AF0AEBD-9CAF-4798-A1A6-983C2FDEC3EF.thumb.png.fd8a99a1767b59527348ae8305209795.png

You’d have to get some snow off that somewhere, a lot of places actually, even if it melts!  Interesting charts again.  Need them to firm up over the next few days of course.  

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The control is slightly further east with the northerly plunge but still a cold one

gensnh-0-1-192.thumb.png.37aac609a6b2f58486d59a227826eee9.pnggensnh-0-0-192.thumb.png.c605d9995ed4379c0b58b7a1e6aa4da7.png

gefs ens mean plunging to -7 on the 5th>

ens_image.thumb.png.482d4c49b276a29e54cf542cbd77ac1d.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City

This is evolving into quite some chase. Still time for it to change but my god it is certainly interesting and by the seat of your pants stuff..

Just look at the crazy number of isobars over Greenland at 153 on GFS 18z.......

image.thumb.png.d6fbf083e47fab42e78305a5d15095d4.png

 

image.thumb.png.be8fabf775e9c9368002fe81d913cdfa.png

Edited by minus10
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Pert 1 gets -16 down into the midlands and -18 in NW England

gens-1-0-186.thumb.png.3ae70f5968bfceee2b2c9b5d490cc310.png

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Pert 1 gets -16 down into the midlands and -18 in NW England

gens-1-0-186.thumb.png.3ae70f5968bfceee2b2c9b5d490cc310.png

 

 

That is just crazy bonkers for April !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
19 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Pert 1 gets -16 down into the midlands and -18 in NW England

gens-1-0-186.thumb.png.3ae70f5968bfceee2b2c9b5d490cc310.png

 

 

We can dream eh?

That would break some April records.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
On 25/03/2021 at 05:04, CreweCold said:

Having a hard time believing some of these charts- GEM gets the -10 isotherm at the 850 level down across to the S coast. Unbelievable for early April really.

GEMOPEU00_216_2.png

No surprises as we see downgrades this morning on GFS. At best, a short cold spell with winds from north easterly quadrant. Rubbish for the south 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
8 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

No surprises as we see downgrades this morning on GFS. At best, a short cold spell with winds from north easterly quadrant. Rubbish for the south 

For context here is the D7 mean

gens-31-0-168.png

gens-31-1-168.png

A slight improvement on the 18z

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

For context here is the D7 mean

gens-31-0-168.png

gens-31-1-168.png

A slight improvement on the 18z

I think the runs vary, as always!! Perhaps better this morning on the 6z...lets see.... Fingers crossed 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Snowfish2 said:

I think the runs vary, as always!! Perhaps better this morning on the 6z...lets see.... Fingers crossed 

I think a drift E at this time is better than a drift W such as we saw yesterday morning. Last thing we want is a LP system forming to our W and a S'ly. If the high is closer and we have -10 uppers trapped underneath, nights are going to go baltic for the time of year.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

In deep FI it gets even better on this run with the fragmenting PV pushing S over us

gfsnh-0-366.png

Would set us on our way to a very cold April

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Wouldn't be many wanting to brave being sat outside on pub reopening day

hgt500-1000.png

uksnowrisk.png

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Looking at the gefs T850s for the next week they stay above the historical mean for IMBY and now the mildest uppers are on Thursday. So the earlier forecasts of turning colder Thursday onwards a bit of a bust by gfs:

graphe9_00000_487.869636176_715.424815348___.thumb.png.a0754c3dd67dd13d07c53cd095c30474.png

Maybe going below average in seven days? Post d7 the models still trying to work out where the trough drops. A lot further east this time but any further creep and it will be similar to the forecast cold that was due on Thursday. Mean at d8:

969877302_gens-31-1-192(1).thumb.png.a99efdfcb45e4249a1e25512c24e2e3d.png

TBH the gfs is struggling with specifics & details but synoptic-wise consistent. But the devil is in the detail and lets hope that it has not led us up another garden path in a weeks time?

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The ecm brings in the colder uppers by d7 and looks the optimum solution if colder air is what you want. D7-10:

ECM0-168.thumb.gif.21f5a29103d6640a9b7da0a2b48ea4bb.gifECM0-192.thumb.gif.2f7a37b4c0183c8a2f88b0fd087b9dab.gifECM0-216.thumb.gif.d8f8444c2c6a29d7960a8839b9169052.gifECM0-240.thumb.gif.b364c1e6f87bca13f12cbbe10e6ca8ea.gif

Looks like some wintry stuff for some in that mix via the low within the trough? 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

For days and days (well, since I started paying attention from last Wednesday/Thursday anyway) it looked like Thursday would see 850s dip below 0. This morning's GFS ensembles show London not getting below the 0 mark until the very early hours of Monday (or very. very late on Sunday evening) now. Remarkable how the warmer uppers have found a way of hanging on. It will get cooler towards the end of the week compared to what we'll see today, tomorrow and Wednesday but the dramatic cool down that looked more than likely only 48-60 hours ago is in serious doubt

image.thumb.png.344c432be857fc38688c22d8d3fe39d1.png

Temps fall off a cliff from Monday but then moderate after 3 or 4 days but that's all FI. Monday/Tuesday look pretty wintry for the north midlands northwards

Edited by LRD
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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
2 minutes ago, LRD said:

For days and days it looked like Thursday would see 850s dip below 0. This morning's GFS ensembles show London not getting below the 0 mark until the very early hours of Monday (or very. very late on Sunday evening) now. Remarkable how the warmer uppers have found a way of hanging on. It will get cooler towards the end of the week compared to what we'll see today, tomorrow and Wednesday but the dramatic cool down that looked more than likely only 48-60 hours ago is in serious doubt

image.thumb.png.344c432be857fc38688c22d8d3fe39d1.png

Temps fall off a cliff from Monday but then moderate after 3 or 4 days but that's all FI. Monday/Tuesday look pretty wintry for the north midlands northwards

Yes, looking f distinctly ropey for a lot of us now unless we see upgrades again? 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
2 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Yes, looking f distinctly ropey for a lot of us now unless we see upgrades again? 

I'd be surprised if there are upgrades (that is, upgrades if cold is what you're looking for) before Saturday now. The previously progged cold that was originally due to come in late Wednesday/early Thursday is a bust. But I still think Sunday might be up for grabs and the colder weather could sweep across us on that day rather than waiting until Monday (cold for all I mean - it will be cold in Scotland on Sunday anyway if this morning's runs are correct). There's plenty of time for the cold to upgrade for next week, though

I don't want the cold now (I'm a coldie from early Nov to mid/late March) but if you want cold there's still room for optimism for you

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

As stated - the very cold air looks like being much like a Southern Rail train - delayed.

Was looking a few days ago that it would arrive by Thursday/Friday...now looking like late Sunday/Monday, and question marks as to how much cold actually makes it, and for how long. Keep those eyes on the forecast.

For the next three days though - most of us can enjoy some spring warmth that will feel more like summer. A taste of what's to come I hope.

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